A few things I've since learnt about Centum
All of Centum's businesses are held for sale.
The M.O is buy or spawn a business, grow it, get dividends where possible or loan interest, sell at best possible terms,repeat.
Dividend policy; Only pays dividend from loan interest, dividends and interest earned by marketable securities portfolio(so called annuity income).
So no special dividends regardless of size of an exit!? I think a special dividend may be paid on a major exit AFTER debt has been reduced to zero. Sidian is a small exit and there is debt to repay.
Real Estate/Centum RE
Management projects 4B cash to be realized once current phase of residentials is done with. I estimate a minimum of 3 years but there is always new construction to gobble up the 4bn
The receivables alone for the land rights already exceed debt taken against Vipingo land. Loans attract interest so some of the cash will go to service the debt. CRE has shareholder loans which need to be repaid from these proceeds. Also cash will be needed for new construction.
Set goal to complete all on-going residential projects by march 2024, rather ambitious. Agreed. Cascadia doesn't look 5 months from completion unless they work 24/7. Mzizi 1st phase will definitely blow past March 2024. Perhaps they meant March 2026!
Bond scheduled to be repaid Dec 2023.
Trific SEZ, the incentives of operating from there should improve tenancy/land sales.
Secured 3B from IFC to build next phase(s) of Mzizi
Others/PE
Jafari growth-Payday loans to civil servants at 3%/month only 1% loans NPL A lot of competition from so many players so limited growth but at least it is profitable.
Green blade's growth -40M/month PAT or over 400Mn/year(Oh and earns in dollars)
Sale of half of stake in Sidian, Will release about 2B cash Straight to pay off loans! Too bad they couldn't sell the entire stake as was the plan with Access
Commitment to be debt free by end of March 2024 at group level, very attainable. I think it may take another 6-12 months.
With above in mind I think the future's quite okay.

I was really hoping they would inject some serious life into Sidian Bank and get that bank to over Ksh1 billion in profits. It feels like they just gave up
Bad luck. Sidian was purchased just before the Interest Rate Caps kicked in which messed up small banks which relied on expensive deposits and needed to lend at higher rates. Centum was earning less (RoE) from Sidian than cost of its debt. The damage of deposits moving to larger banks was done by the time the IRC was repealed.

Bond to be paid in Dec 2023, Cascadia doesn't even look half complete despite being started in 2019.
Bad luck. When it rains it pours. COVID in 2020 caused a lot of problems for contractors' supply chains as transport/logistics were impeded. Then Roko abruptly closed up. 400 units went on hold. Buyers, esp foreign buyers, were wary. From my layman's perspective, I think they will be completed by 3Q 2024 i.e. 1 year

I wonder if they will need new debt to complete.
IFC may give CRE 3bn to keep developing Mzizi.
CRE also collects payments monthly from those who have booked Cascadia, Palms and Mzizi