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Centum FY2022 - FY2026
VituVingiSana
#121 Posted : Friday, October 13, 2023 9:38:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,078
Location: Nairobi
DtheK wrote:
A few things I've since learnt about Centum
All of Centum's businesses are held for sale.
The M.O is buy or spawn a business, grow it, get dividends where possible or loan interest, sell at best possible terms,repeat.
Dividend policy; Only pays dividend from loan interest, dividends and interest earned by marketable securities portfolio(so called annuity income).
So no special dividends regardless of size of an exit!?
Real Estate/Centum RE
Management projects 4B cash to be realized once current phase of residentials is done with.
The receivables alone for the land rights already exceed debt taken against Vipingo land.
Set goal to complete all on-going residential projects by march 2024, rather ambitious.
Bond scheduled to be repaid Dec 2023.
Trific SEZ, the incentives of operating from there should improve tenancy/land sales.
Secured 3B from IFC to build next phase(s) of Mzizi
Others/PE
Jafari growth-Payday loans to civil servants at 3%/month only 1% loans NPL
Green blade's growth -40M/month PAT or over 400Mn/year(Oh and earns in dollars)
Sale of half of stake in Sidian, Will release about 2B cash
Commitment to be debt free by end of March 2024 at group level, very attainable.
With above in mind I think the future's quite okay.

It has been a rough ride for Centum shareholders though the circumstances also played a part.

COVID really hurt the mall as well as timelines for the completion of construction as the country went into lockdown as well as disruption of supply chains.

As noted, some of the issues will resolve over time.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#122 Posted : Friday, October 13, 2023 10:04:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,078
Location: Nairobi
DtheK wrote:
A few things I've since learnt about Centum
All of Centum's businesses are held for sale.
The M.O is buy or spawn a business, grow it, get dividends where possible or loan interest, sell at best possible terms,repeat.
Dividend policy; Only pays dividend from loan interest, dividends and interest earned by marketable securities portfolio(so called annuity income).
So no special dividends regardless of size of an exit!? I think a special dividend may be paid on a major exit AFTER debt has been reduced to zero. Sidian is a small exit and there is debt to repay.
Real Estate/Centum RE
Management projects 4B cash to be realized once current phase of residentials is done with. I estimate a minimum of 3 years but there is always new construction to gobble up the 4bn
The receivables alone for the land rights already exceed debt taken against Vipingo land. Loans attract interest so some of the cash will go to service the debt. CRE has shareholder loans which need to be repaid from these proceeds. Also cash will be needed for new construction.
Set goal to complete all on-going residential projects by march 2024, rather ambitious. Agreed. Cascadia doesn't look 5 months from completion unless they work 24/7. Mzizi 1st phase will definitely blow past March 2024. Perhaps they meant March 2026!
Bond scheduled to be repaid Dec 2023.
Trific SEZ, the incentives of operating from there should improve tenancy/land sales.
Secured 3B from IFC to build next phase(s) of Mzizi
Others/PE
Jafari growth-Payday loans to civil servants at 3%/month only 1% loans NPL A lot of competition from so many players so limited growth but at least it is profitable.
Green blade's growth -40M/month PAT or over 400Mn/year(Oh and earns in dollars)
Sale of half of stake in Sidian, Will release about 2B cash Straight to pay off loans! Too bad they couldn't sell the entire stake as was the plan with Access
Commitment to be debt free by end of March 2024 at group level, very attainable. I think it may take another 6-12 months.
With above in mind I think the future's quite okay.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
watesh
#123 Posted : Monday, October 16, 2023 9:13:43 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 963
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
DtheK wrote:
A few things I've since learnt about Centum
All of Centum's businesses are held for sale.
The M.O is buy or spawn a business, grow it, get dividends where possible or loan interest, sell at best possible terms,repeat.
Dividend policy; Only pays dividend from loan interest, dividends and interest earned by marketable securities portfolio(so called annuity income).
So no special dividends regardless of size of an exit!? I think a special dividend may be paid on a major exit AFTER debt has been reduced to zero. Sidian is a small exit and there is debt to repay.
Real Estate/Centum RE
Management projects 4B cash to be realized once current phase of residentials is done with. I estimate a minimum of 3 years but there is always new construction to gobble up the 4bn
The receivables alone for the land rights already exceed debt taken against Vipingo land. Loans attract interest so some of the cash will go to service the debt. CRE has shareholder loans which need to be repaid from these proceeds. Also cash will be needed for new construction.
Set goal to complete all on-going residential projects by march 2024, rather ambitious. Agreed. Cascadia doesn't look 5 months from completion unless they work 24/7. Mzizi 1st phase will definitely blow past March 2024. Perhaps they meant March 2026!
Bond scheduled to be repaid Dec 2023.
Trific SEZ, the incentives of operating from there should improve tenancy/land sales.
Secured 3B from IFC to build next phase(s) of Mzizi
Others/PE
Jafari growth-Payday loans to civil servants at 3%/month only 1% loans NPL A lot of competition from so many players so limited growth but at least it is profitable.
Green blade's growth -40M/month PAT or over 400Mn/year(Oh and earns in dollars)
Sale of half of stake in Sidian, Will release about 2B cash Straight to pay off loans! Too bad they couldn't sell the entire stake as was the plan with Access
Commitment to be debt free by end of March 2024 at group level, very attainable. I think it may take another 6-12 months.
With above in mind I think the future's quite okay.



I was really hoping they would inject some serious life into Sidian Bank and get that bank to over Ksh1 billion in profits. It feels like they just gave up

Bond to be paid in Dec 2023, Cascadia doesn't even look half complete despite being started in 2019. I wonder if they will need new debt to complete.
VituVingiSana
#124 Posted : Monday, October 16, 2023 11:45:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,078
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
DtheK wrote:
A few things I've since learnt about Centum
All of Centum's businesses are held for sale.
The M.O is buy or spawn a business, grow it, get dividends where possible or loan interest, sell at best possible terms,repeat.
Dividend policy; Only pays dividend from loan interest, dividends and interest earned by marketable securities portfolio(so called annuity income).
So no special dividends regardless of size of an exit!? I think a special dividend may be paid on a major exit AFTER debt has been reduced to zero. Sidian is a small exit and there is debt to repay.
Real Estate/Centum RE
Management projects 4B cash to be realized once current phase of residentials is done with. I estimate a minimum of 3 years but there is always new construction to gobble up the 4bn
The receivables alone for the land rights already exceed debt taken against Vipingo land. Loans attract interest so some of the cash will go to service the debt. CRE has shareholder loans which need to be repaid from these proceeds. Also cash will be needed for new construction.
Set goal to complete all on-going residential projects by march 2024, rather ambitious. Agreed. Cascadia doesn't look 5 months from completion unless they work 24/7. Mzizi 1st phase will definitely blow past March 2024. Perhaps they meant March 2026!
Bond scheduled to be repaid Dec 2023.
Trific SEZ, the incentives of operating from there should improve tenancy/land sales.
Secured 3B from IFC to build next phase(s) of Mzizi
Others/PE
Jafari growth-Payday loans to civil servants at 3%/month only 1% loans NPL A lot of competition from so many players so limited growth but at least it is profitable.
Green blade's growth -40M/month PAT or over 400Mn/year(Oh and earns in dollars)
Sale of half of stake in Sidian, Will release about 2B cash Straight to pay off loans! Too bad they couldn't sell the entire stake as was the plan with Access
Commitment to be debt free by end of March 2024 at group level, very attainable. I think it may take another 6-12 months.
With above in mind I think the future's quite okay.



I was really hoping they would inject some serious life into Sidian Bank and get that bank to over Ksh1 billion in profits. It feels like they just gave up
Bad luck. Sidian was purchased just before the Interest Rate Caps kicked in which messed up small banks which relied on expensive deposits and needed to lend at higher rates. Centum was earning less (RoE) from Sidian than cost of its debt. The damage of deposits moving to larger banks was done by the time the IRC was repealed.

Bond to be paid in Dec 2023, Cascadia doesn't even look half complete despite being started in 2019.
Bad luck. When it rains it pours. COVID in 2020 caused a lot of problems for contractors' supply chains as transport/logistics were impeded. Then Roko abruptly closed up. 400 units went on hold. Buyers, esp foreign buyers, were wary. From my layman's perspective, I think they will be completed by 3Q 2024 i.e. 1 year

I wonder if they will need new debt to complete.
IFC may give CRE 3bn to keep developing Mzizi.
CRE also collects payments monthly from those who have booked Cascadia, Palms and Mzizi

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
andrueastman
#125 Posted : Wednesday, November 29, 2023 9:32:58 AM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 2/12/2019
Posts: 7
Location: Nairobi
My 2 cents
#126 Posted : Wednesday, November 29, 2023 11:27:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,059
[quote=andrueastman]HY for FY24 results - https://www.centum.co.ke...sults_Halfyear_FY24.pdf[/quote]

Why is the narrative alongside the accounts quoting figures that I do not see in the accounts? For instance PAT of 1.4B??? The figures indicate otherwise.
Is it just me? What am I missing?
watesh
#127 Posted : Wednesday, December 06, 2023 8:38:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 963
Location: Kenya
My 2 cents wrote:
[quote=andrueastman]HY for FY24 results - https://www.centum.co.ke...sults_Halfyear_FY24.pdf[/quote]

Why is the narrative alongside the accounts quoting figures that I do not see in the accounts? For instance PAT of 1.4B??? The figures indicate otherwise.
Is it just me? What am I missing?


These results need more color. Too bad they skipped the investor briefing this year
Mastermind
#128 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2023 3:26:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/25/2012
Posts: 1,624
Location: Langley
My 2 cents wrote:
[quote=andrueastman]HY for FY24 results - https://www.centum.co.ke...sults_Halfyear_FY24.pdf[/quote]

Why is the narrative alongside the accounts quoting figures that I do not see in the accounts? For instance PAT of 1.4B??? The figures indicate otherwise.
Is it just me? What am I missing?


Check under Company
If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
Ericsson
#129 Posted : Monday, January 01, 2024 9:58:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,657
Location: NAIROBI
Mastermind wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
[quote=andrueastman]HY for FY24 results - https://www.centum.co.ke...sults_Halfyear_FY24.pdf[/quote]

Why is the narrative alongside the accounts quoting figures that I do not see in the accounts? For instance PAT of 1.4B??? The figures indicate otherwise.
Is it just me? What am I missing?


Check under Company


What we should focus on is the group because that is what is listed.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
xtina
#130 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2024 9:40:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 384
VVS what say you on Centum these days? I like JM but he spends so much time and energy in Nanyuki on his real estate development sometimes I worry he mentally checked out on Centum
VituVingiSana
#131 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2024 5:51:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,078
Location: Nairobi
xtina wrote:
VVS what say you on Centum these days? I like JM but he spends so much time and energy in Nanyuki on his real estate development sometimes I worry he mentally checked out on Centum

No easy answers.

Cons
- High KES interest rates affect the cashflow. CICP, CRE, Longhorn, etc have loans.
- KES/USD has made the USD loans much more expensive to service.
- SOFR is up from 1% to 5% which means the Nedbank loan is now very expensive.
- Sidian had a rough 2023 with NPLs, provisions and an extraordinary payment to a lender.
- Longhorn disappointed. GoK is a tough customer.
- CRE's sales have likely slowed down due to the poor economic health of buyers.
- Cascadia is far from complete. During the last presentation (FY23) they said 240-ish of 400 sold.
- There was a hole dug for Mzizi #3 but nothing... PR tu!
- Mall looks rundown. Needs more tenants who pay rents.
- Nabo doesn't seem to have grown as fast as other Asset Management firms. Lots of competition.

Pros
- Loft (Phase 1) completed but not all have been handed over.
- Loft (Phase 2) seem on track for completion by Dec 2024.
- Sidian, like other KE banks, may see better days in 2024
- NAS should be doing better with increasing flights from JKIA
- Longhorn said it had provided for bad debts it still expects to collect.
- Progress seems to have been made at Cascadia but completion might be in 2025. Slow sales.
- Mzizi (2 blocks) is coming up well. Finishing is what takes more time and cash. The $20mn from IFC will help.
- Bond settled which means cash can now go to pay for construction.
- SEZ done but it needs a lot of marketing!
- The North Tower has some construction activity.
- Panda Mart coming to TR according to a BD article.
- Isuzu seems to be doing well but it needs to get into the eV space.
- Greenblade should be doing well given the KES/USD (even at 130)
- I expect 60-75c as the DPS for FY2024

Overall, at 9/-, as an investor, it looks good to me but one will have to wait for 3 more years before there is a trigger event eg much better DPS.
*CRE needs to pay off the loans
*SEZ will need at least another 2 years to get on track.
*Sidian should stabilize and hopefully other shareholders buy out CICP's stake.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
watesh
#132 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2024 10:25:30 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 963
Location: Kenya
xtina wrote:
VVS what say you on Centum these days? I like JM but he spends so much time and energy in Nanyuki on his real estate development sometimes I worry he mentally checked out on Centum


I also think he has. Ever since the new board came in, there has been barely any significant progress in the company or rather nothing exciting. Real estate construction even seems slow at this point. Buildings in Kilimani are progressing at a much faster rate than the ones at Two Rivers
Ericsson
#133 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2024 8:38:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,657
Location: NAIROBI
watesh wrote:
xtina wrote:
VVS what say you on Centum these days? I like JM but he spends so much time and energy in Nanyuki on his real estate development sometimes I worry he mentally checked out on Centum


I also think he has. Ever since the new board came in, there has been barely any significant progress in the company or rather nothing exciting. Real estate construction even seems slow at this point. Buildings in Kilimani are progressing at a much faster rate than the ones at Two Rivers


It's missing DJ Chris Kirubi who was the captain of the ship.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#134 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2024 8:45:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,078
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
xtina wrote:
VVS what say you on Centum these days? I like JM but he spends so much time and energy in Nanyuki on his real estate development sometimes I worry he mentally checked out on Centum


I also think he has. Ever since the new board came in, there has been barely any significant progress in the company or rather nothing exciting. Real estate construction even seems slow at this point. Buildings in Kilimani are progressing at a much faster rate than the ones at Two Rivers

Funding constraints. If only Centum had the same access to the funding those folks in Kilimani had... ;-)
*But those monies may not pass the sniff test!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
watesh
#135 Posted : Monday, April 15, 2024 9:08:12 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 963
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
xtina wrote:
VVS what say you on Centum these days? I like JM but he spends so much time and energy in Nanyuki on his real estate development sometimes I worry he mentally checked out on Centum


I also think he has. Ever since the new board came in, there has been barely any significant progress in the company or rather nothing exciting. Real estate construction even seems slow at this point. Buildings in Kilimani are progressing at a much faster rate than the ones at Two Rivers

Funding constraints. If only Centum had the same access to the funding those folks in Kilimani had... ;-)
*But those monies may not pass the sniff test!


Cascadia Apartments, launched in 2019, just looks like a stalled project. By now it has been overun by inflation I wonder if it's even profitable based on the original prices. 6 years surely
VituVingiSana
#136 Posted : Monday, April 15, 2024 12:00:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,078
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
xtina wrote:
VVS what say you on Centum these days? I like JM but he spends so much time and energy in Nanyuki on his real estate development sometimes I worry he mentally checked out on Centum


I also think he has. Ever since the new board came in, there has been barely any significant progress in the company or rather nothing exciting. Real estate construction even seems slow at this point. Buildings in Kilimani are progressing at a much faster rate than the ones at Two Rivers

Funding constraints. If only Centum had the same access to the funding those folks in Kilimani had... ;-)
*But those monies may not pass the sniff test!


Cascadia Apartments, launched in 2019, just looks like a stalled project. By now it has been overun by inflation I wonder if it's even profitable based on the original prices. 6 years surely

Construction is ongoing. Pass by TR and have a look. Then return in 4 weeks.

Even if the project is no longer profitable, they have to complete it and when they do that it is net cashflow in from sales and/or rent. They cannot have a 1/2 finished project.

What has been spent to-date is a SUNK COST, what is important is what they need to spend to complete it vs what they can get in cash returns.

To be fair, Centum got hit with COVID in March 2020, just after they launched Cascadia. The COVID restrictions screwed up supply chains, costing and cashflow.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
DtheK
#137 Posted : Monday, April 15, 2024 1:49:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/15/2010
Posts: 120
Location: Kenya
People should remember that the marketable securities and cash stood at 6B last year. Assuming 15% return this alone yields 900M in interest income! The current rates favor Centum.
VituVingiSana
#138 Posted : Monday, April 15, 2024 7:51:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,078
Location: Nairobi
DtheK wrote:
People should remember that the marketable securities and cash stood at 6B last year. Assuming 15% return this alone yields 900M in interest income! The current rates favor Centum.

The MSP that Centum (parent) talks about probably includes loans to related entities including fully owned subsidiaries, partially owned subsidiaries and associates.
Longhorn has not paid dividends for 3 years and has outstanding loans perhaps even CPs.
CRE owes money to CICP (parent) as shareholder loans. Perhaps even CPs.

That said, CICP/Nabo said they sold their Eurobonds and the cash may be part of MSP. Sale of the stake in Sidian may have also helped.

What could have reduced the MSP were loan repayments to multiple lenders which is a stated goal of CICP. Of course, this would reduce cash outflows in future years.

Without the Annual Report or a detailed presentation, it is hard to breakdown what has happened in FY24. Centum has upto 31 July 2024 to publish abridged financial statements. Then more time to publish the Annual Report.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
watesh
#139 Posted : Tuesday, April 16, 2024 11:58:02 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 963
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
xtina wrote:
VVS what say you on Centum these days? I like JM but he spends so much time and energy in Nanyuki on his real estate development sometimes I worry he mentally checked out on Centum


I also think he has. Ever since the new board came in, there has been barely any significant progress in the company or rather nothing exciting. Real estate construction even seems slow at this point. Buildings in Kilimani are progressing at a much faster rate than the ones at Two Rivers

Funding constraints. If only Centum had the same access to the funding those folks in Kilimani had... ;-)
*But those monies may not pass the sniff test!


Cascadia Apartments, launched in 2019, just looks like a stalled project. By now it has been overun by inflation I wonder if it's even profitable based on the original prices. 6 years surely

Construction is ongoing. Pass by TR and have a look. Then return in 4 weeks.

Even if the project is no longer profitable, they have to complete it and when they do that it is net cashflow in from sales and/or rent. They cannot have a 1/2 finished project.

What has been spent to-date is a SUNK COST, what is important is what they need to spend to complete it vs what they can get in cash returns.

To be fair, Centum got hit with COVID in March 2020, just after they launched Cascadia. The COVID restrictions screwed up supply chains, costing and cashflow.


We can't keep blaming covid. It was a challenge that affected everyone and supply chain issues got fixed. The Express Way construction started and ended yet Cascadia has barely made significant progress. I have seen buildings the same size or bigger than Cascadia start in 2021 and by now they are already occupied. I recently passed by and that thing needs a minimum of another year or 2 to do interior and finishing. Mzizi is likely to be done before Cascadia and Elmer One.
VituVingiSana
#140 Posted : Tuesday, April 16, 2024 10:55:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,078
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
xtina wrote:
VVS what say you on Centum these days? I like JM but he spends so much time and energy in Nanyuki on his real estate development sometimes I worry he mentally checked out on Centum


I also think he has. Ever since the new board came in, there has been barely any significant progress in the company or rather nothing exciting. Real estate construction even seems slow at this point. Buildings in Kilimani are progressing at a much faster rate than the ones at Two Rivers

Funding constraints. If only Centum had the same access to the funding those folks in Kilimani had... ;-)
*But those monies may not pass the sniff test!


Cascadia Apartments, launched in 2019, just looks like a stalled project. By now it has been overun by inflation I wonder if it's even profitable based on the original prices. 6 years surely

Construction is ongoing. Pass by TR and have a look. Then return in 4 weeks.

Even if the project is no longer profitable, they have to complete it and when they do that it is net cashflow in from sales and/or rent. They cannot have a 1/2 finished project.

What has been spent to-date is a SUNK COST, what is important is what they need to spend to complete it vs what they can get in cash returns.

To be fair, Centum got hit with COVID in March 2020, just after they launched Cascadia. The COVID restrictions screwed up supply chains, costing and cashflow.


We can't keep blaming covid. It was a challenge that affected everyone and supply chain issues got fixed. The Express Way construction started and ended yet Cascadia has barely made significant progress. I have seen buildings the same size or bigger than Cascadia start in 2021 and by now they are already occupied. I recently passed by and that thing needs a minimum of another year or 2 to do interior and finishing. Mzizi is likely to be done before Cascadia and Elmer One.

COVID restrictions and disruptions were a reality and I provided a perspective. Then Roko collapsed. BTW, some banks are still struggling with business (esp real estate and manufacturing) NPLs some of which are linked to COVID.

Expressway was a political project. It was not affected by interest rates, FX volatility, movement restrictions, etc. Uhunye wanted to secure the bag and made sure it was operational. Did you know there were construction folks with "passes" during the COVID curfews?

Now let's tackle the issues surrounding Cascadia.

Has Cascadia lagged? Yes, Cascadia has lagged and was acknowledged in an earlier post. http://wazua.co.ke/forum...11&f=1&q=912129

You said Cascadia Apartments, launched in 2019, just looks like a stalled project and I said it has not stalled and recommended you visit it soon and do so again after 4 weeks.

You said I have seen buildings the same size or bigger than Cascadia start in 2021 and by now they are already occupied. Yes, and I responded Funding constraints. If only Centum had the same access to the funding those folks in Kilimani had... ;-)
*But those monies may not pass the sniff test!


You said Cascadia needs a minimum of another year or 2 to do interior and finishing. and I agree for all of the 400 units. What I thought 6 months ago was we will see some units completed by Centum's 3Q2024 but now I will go with Dec 2024.

I believe they have started finishing interiors on 2 of 5. Yes, the sales agents may be more optimistic than what's likely to happen on the ground. That still leaves 3 blocks to be completed in 2025.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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