It has been a rough ride for Centum shareholders though the circumstances also played a part.

COVID really hurt the mall as well as timelines for the completion of construction as the country went into lockdown as well as disruption of supply chains.

As noted, some of the issues will resolve over time.

I was really hoping they would inject some serious life into Sidian Bank and get that bank to over Ksh1 billion in profits. It feels like they just gave up

Bond to be paid in Dec 2023, Cascadia doesn't even look half complete despite being started in 2019. I wonder if they will need new debt to complete.

HY for FY24 results - https://www.centum.co.ke...esults_Halfyear_FY24.pdf

These results need more color. Too bad they skipped the investor briefing this year

What we should focus on is the group because that is what is listed.

No easy answers.

Cons
- High KES interest rates affect the cashflow. CICP, CRE, Longhorn, etc have loans.
- KES/USD has made the USD loans much more expensive to service.
- SOFR is up from 1% to 5% which means the Nedbank loan is now very expensive.
- Sidian had a rough 2023 with NPLs, provisions and an extraordinary payment to a lender.
- Longhorn disappointed. GoK is a tough customer.
- CRE's sales have likely slowed down due to the poor economic health of buyers.
- Cascadia is far from complete. During the last presentation (FY23) they said 240-ish of 400 sold.
- There was a hole dug for Mzizi #3 but nothing... PR tu!
- Mall looks rundown. Needs more tenants who pay rents.
- Nabo doesn't seem to have grown as fast as other Asset Management firms. Lots of competition.

Pros
- Loft (Phase 1) completed but not all have been handed over.
- Loft (Phase 2) seem on track for completion by Dec 2024.
- Sidian, like other KE banks, may see better days in 2024
- NAS should be doing better with increasing flights from JKIA
- Longhorn said it had provided for bad debts it still expects to collect.
- Progress seems to have been made at Cascadia but completion might be in 2025. Slow sales.
- Mzizi (2 blocks) is coming up well. Finishing is what takes more time and cash. The $20mn from IFC will help.
- Bond settled which means cash can now go to pay for construction.
- SEZ done but it needs a lot of marketing!
- The North Tower has some construction activity.
- Panda Mart coming to TR according to a BD article.
- Isuzu seems to be doing well but it needs to get into the eV space.
- Greenblade should be doing well given the KES/USD (even at 130)
- I expect 60-75c as the DPS for FY2024

Overall, at 9/-, as an investor, it looks good to me but one will have to wait for 3 more years before there is a trigger event eg much better DPS.
*CRE needs to pay off the loans
*SEZ will need at least another 2 years to get on track.
*Sidian should stabilize and hopefully other shareholders buy out CICP's stake.

It's missing DJ Chris Kirubi who was the captain of the ship.

Cascadia Apartments, launched in 2019, just looks like a stalled project. By now it has been overun by inflation I wonder if it's even profitable based on the original prices. 6 years surely

People should remember that the marketable securities and cash stood at 6B last year. Assuming 15% return this alone yields 900M in interest income! The current rates favor Centum.

We can't keep blaming covid. It was a challenge that affected everyone and supply chain issues got fixed. The Express Way construction started and ended yet Cascadia has barely made significant progress. I have seen buildings the same size or bigger than Cascadia start in 2021 and by now they are already occupied. I recently passed by and that thing needs a minimum of another year or 2 to do interior and finishing. Mzizi is likely to be done before Cascadia and Elmer One.