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SAFARICOM H1 2022-2023 EPS down 10%
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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MaichBlack wrote:stocksmaster wrote:piedpiper wrote:Seems like this bus has left the station... Most likely this is a dead cat bounce. Happy Hunting If it is a bounce, it is really bouncing. 19.70 printed. @Stocksmaster is right. It WAS a dead cat bounce. Now retracing. Might meet heavy resistance at 16 as that's where the bids are. Should it floor it, the next resistance will be at 15. Either way, i expect it to trade between 15-20 between now and May 2023 when they announce FY results. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:MaichBlack wrote:stocksmaster wrote:piedpiper wrote:Seems like this bus has left the station... Most likely this is a dead cat bounce. Happy Hunting If it is a bounce, it is really bouncing. 19.70 printed. @Stocksmaster is right. It WAS a dead cat bounce. Now retracing. Might meet heavy resistance at 16 as that's where the bids are. Should it floor it, the next resistance will be at 15. Either way, i expect it to trade between 15-20 between now and May 2023 when they announce FY results. I am seeing top five bid prices (high volumes) od between 18.50 and 18.80/=. No? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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MaichBlack wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:MaichBlack wrote:stocksmaster wrote:piedpiper wrote:Seems like this bus has left the station... Most likely this is a dead cat bounce. Happy Hunting If it is a bounce, it is really bouncing. 19.70 printed. @Stocksmaster is right. It WAS a dead cat bounce. Now retracing. Might meet heavy resistance at 16 as that's where the bids are. Should it floor it, the next resistance will be at 15. Either way, i expect it to trade between 15-20 between now and May 2023 when they announce FY results. I am seeing top five bid prices (high volumes) od between 18.50 and 18.80/=. No? I'm talking about off board bids! All in all, as someone who grabbed a few at 17.95 yesterday, i'd be happy if the stock breaks the 20 resistance and aim for the 23 one. Though i'll be in the market on Friday to sell after T+3 regardless of the price then! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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MaichBlack wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:MaichBlack wrote:stocksmaster wrote:piedpiper wrote:Seems like this bus has left the station... Most likely this is a dead cat bounce. Happy Hunting If it is a bounce, it is really bouncing. 19.70 printed. @Stocksmaster is right. It WAS a dead cat bounce. Now retracing. Might meet heavy resistance at 16 as that's where the bids are. Should it floor it, the next resistance will be at 15. Either way, i expect it to trade between 15-20 between now and May 2023 when they announce FY results. I am seeing top five bid prices (high volumes) od between 18.50 and 18.80/=. No? Today also in the green... Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,678 Location: NAIROBI
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MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:MaichBlack wrote:stocksmaster wrote:piedpiper wrote:Seems like this bus has left the station... Most likely this is a dead cat bounce. Happy Hunting If it is a bounce, it is really bouncing. 19.70 printed. @Stocksmaster is right. It WAS a dead cat bounce. Now retracing. Might meet heavy resistance at 16 as that's where the bids are. Should it floor it, the next resistance will be at 15. Either way, i expect it to trade between 15-20 between now and May 2023 when they announce FY results. I am seeing top five bid prices (high volumes) od between 18.50 and 18.80/=. No? Today also in the green... The mini rally in the share price has ended. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/21/2017 Posts: 48
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Back at 16.85...time to load up again? Life is a beach and I'm just playing in the sand
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/27/2006 Posts: 503
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Now at sub 16. Standing at the sidelines and watching the show.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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deadpoet wrote:Now at sub 16. Standing at the sidelines and watching the show. placing an order at 15, hope it goes through, next week results will not be as bad as some expect, ethiopia mpesa licence will be announced probably this month There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,499 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Unbelievable! The more the foreigners sell, the more the shilling falls  Could be signs of economy collapse with the new guys pushing to increase borrowing ceiling The volume action today suggests that we will see KES 16 before end of next week. However the dip is not supported by any significant change in company fundamentals. It's a buy at KES 17 @obiero and @stocksmaster have informed you sufficiently.. your next step belongs to your own imagination or lack thereof
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/27/2006 Posts: 503
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littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,499 Location: nairobi
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deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,066
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obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment Even at sub30, Safaricom was a good buy. Madness is buying KQ when they have proven over and over and over again that they are a perennial loser. Einstein said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results".
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,499 Location: nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment Even at sub30, Safaricom was a good buy. Madness is buying KQ when they have proven over and over and over again that they are a perennial loser. Einstein said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results". There is a KQ thread. Right now we are discussing SCOM and some unfortunate people
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 968 Location: Kenya
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littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem I would rather get the banks. KCB below 30, a potential dividend of 4 gives it a yield of 13%.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,066
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People are spooked by the drop in earnings but have ignored the grant of an MPESA license in Ethiopia.
When it rains gold, put out a bucket not a thimble. I have bought loads of safcom today at 14.30. I pray the price remains low until we receive our bank dividends in 2 weeks (ABSA, KCB, StanChart)
History will judge just how unfortunate I was for buying at these prices.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,499 Location: nairobi
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watesh wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem I would rather get the banks. KCB below 30, a potential dividend of 4 gives it a yield of 13%. True. The market rarely lies this deeply. There must be asymmetrical information at play with SCOM. Going in right now is like chasing after a woman who keeps lifting her skirt unnecessarily. Risky. But I just might
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,499 Location: nairobi
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Upon discussion at the exchange bar, I change my mind. Will sit it out, as further falls in the price are expected starting tomorrow. KES 12 is GUARANTEED within next 5 trading days.. The current share price of Safaricom Plc (SCOM) is KES 14.70. SCOM closed its last trading day (Thursday, May 11, 2023) at 14.70 KES per share on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), recording a 3.9% drop from its previous closing price of 15.30 KES. Safaricom began the year with a share price of 24.15 KES but has since lost 39.1% off that price valuation, ranking it 61st on the NSE in terms of year-to-date performance. Shareholders’ worries are compounded by the fact that SCOM has lost 20% of the stock’s value from April 11th to date.
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,066
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We have seen these fears about Safaricom. They did not pan out.
Who remembers number portability craze being the base of fears in years past.
Safaricom shares are falling hardest because they are the biggest holding of international investors. The very same ones leaving our market due to interest rate hikes abroad accompanied by local forex shortages.
I suppose they are also in fear of regulatory risk affecting Safcom.
When foreign investors come back to NSE, whenever that is, guess which shares they will buy. Hint: Not KQ, not HFCK
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:We have seen these fears about Safaricom. They did not pan out.
Who remembers number portability craze being the base of fears in years past.
Safaricom shares are falling hardest because they are the biggest holding of international investors. The very same ones leaving our market due to interest rate hikes abroad accompanied by local forex shortages.
I suppose they are also in fear of regulatory risk affecting Safcom.
When foreign investors come back to NSE, whenever that is, guess which shares they will buy. Hint: Not KQ, not HFCK
Can Ethiopia backfire and they lose money or struggle for years with exchange controls and just making money in Ethiopia . I do not know why Airtell struggled while Safaricom did well in Kenya
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