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Madness at the NSE
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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heri wrote:mwanahisa wrote:Guys, I know Equity Bank has been a market darling but the delay in the release of results has me VERY worried. In their 3rd quarter results, Equity also had a staggering loss of 45 BILLION KSHS in FAIR VALUE CHANGES IN FVOCI assets. This was on investment securities held with a value of Kshs 352 Billion. It looks like they invested big time in govt securities when rates were low. I doubt whether they would have been able to unwind these positions before year-end. If so, then we should even brace ourselves for an actual loss on their P&L, because the PBT in September was 44.2 B, i.e. lower than the mark to market losses on their bond positions! This was pretty scary. I remember this. Was this huge investment in GOK securities unique to equity? What about KCB , Coop ? The exposure at KCB and Coop was not as bad. Full year losses (as at 31.12.22) on Fair Value changes in KCB stood at Kshs 4.2 B and Kshs 8.6B at Coop Bank respectively.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2018 Posts: 564 Location: Britain
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Queen wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! If you factor in the transactional charges, your gains are only 10.8%.... not very attractive since the direction of the share price is still uncertain/unpredictable. To each, their own. As for me, 10% in 6 days IS EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE! As for the direction of the stock, the trend is downwards, has been since November 2021 when for the first time in a decade, they reported reduced profits. Of course, at some point, the trend will reverse, hopefully in May, if the profitability improves when they release FY2022-2023. Until then, what we have now is a retracement. The order book(offboard bids and offers) also points to a downward trend. Agreed. What is your take on BAT trading @420-430 despite declaring such a juicy final dividend?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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I'd lump up BAT and Stanchart together. They are great dividend stocks with yields of above 10% and are great during these recession years as they can make up for any foregone capital gains with their decent dividend yields. Unfortunately, they are not the darling of the foreign investors, who tend to go for stocks that have interrupted sectors of an economy, the likes of Safaricom and Equity Bank - the blue eyed boys. Such stocks tend to be growth stocks but with a track record of paying dividends. And because these foreign investors tend to have deep pockets, the blue eyed stocks get bid and their prices soar, which also partly explains their low dividend yields. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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FED hikes by 25bps to 5%. Essentially, in the US, this means... More bailouts for the rich. Higher mortgage payments for the poor. In Kenya, and the rest of emerging and frontier markets, a stronger dollar will lead to more capital flight, more depreciation of the local currencies vs the USD, more pain at the Stock Market! Next FED meet May 2023! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/1/2019 Posts: 86
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! Sometimes you really just have to book your gains.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Tomorrow, season 2 of the rout begins! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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McGill wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! Sometimes you really just have to book your gains. It's something you learn with time! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/1/2019 Posts: 86
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:McGill wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! Sometimes you really just have to book your gains. It's something you learn with time! Over 5 years in the market and I still struggle with it. Something goes up 15% in a short period and the thinking is always that it will continue rising.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,066
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In the market there are traders and long-term buyers. You have to decide what camp you are on. Personally I am on the buy and hold side especially with our 2% in and 2% out commissions. This market is brutal to traders because of the fees. So a 15% gain is actually only a net fee 11% gain.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,678 Location: NAIROBI
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Queen wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Queen wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! If you factor in the transactional charges, your gains are only 10.8%.... not very attractive since the direction of the share price is still uncertain/unpredictable. To each, their own. As for me, 10% in 6 days IS EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE! As for the direction of the stock, the trend is downwards, has been since November 2021 when for the first time in a decade, they reported reduced profits. Of course, at some point, the trend will reverse, hopefully in May, if the profitability improves when they release FY2022-2023. Until then, what we have now is a retracement. The order book(offboard bids and offers) also points to a downward trend. Agreed. What is your take on BAT trading @420-430 despite declaring such a juicy final dividend? Yard stick is 12% dividend yield Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Tomorrow, season 2 of the rout begins! It never happened. It is like they never got the memo!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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Queen wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Queen wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! If you factor in the transactional charges, your gains are only 10.8%.... not very attractive since the direction of the share price is still uncertain/unpredictable. To each, their own. As for me, 10% in 6 days IS EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE! As for the direction of the stock, the trend is downwards, has been since November 2021 when for the first time in a decade, they reported reduced profits. Of course, at some point, the trend will reverse, hopefully in May, if the profitability improves when they release FY2022-2023. Until then, what we have now is a retracement. The order book(offboard bids and offers) also points to a downward trend. Agreed. What is your take on BAT trading @420-430 despite declaring such a juicy final dividend? See title of the thread. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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MaichBlack wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Tomorrow, season 2 of the rout begins! It never happened. It is like they never got the memo!!! You have @cnn and @littledove to thank for this. The duo ploughed back their EABL cheques and kept the market going. Not forgetting @Mwanahisa who went all in just before the EFTs were effected  I salute them!  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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Once most of these shares are in the "right hands" - people who know the difference between value and price - then the rest will be in problems. They will have to pay a premium if they want in. Last Friday KCB was 31/=, very many offers at around 31/= and ZERO demand. See the price today and offer and demand volumes!! I suspect the percentage of shares in the "right hands" is now higher. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Meanwhile, another trading day, another rout. The bears firmly on the driver's seat! I am already in the red on additional shares I bought this week because I knew announcement of results might push them up. I made sure I bought on Monday and some on Tuesday!! Then it was Rhumba time!!! My biggest problem is not even the price per say (I am long term) but how many more shares I would have bought had I bought today or probably next week. And it is maaany!!! The regret/opportunity costs/mistakes etc can make one overindulge especially seeing today is Furahiday. Honestly,this week has been like playing in the casino. You want to seat on your hands but the temptation to press sell/buy button overwhelms you! Exactly!!! I still need to buy more Equity and watching the market today tells me I should go in on Monday at 37 - 38. I might go in and we discover new lows. Or there is a turn around and I even don't get the chance to buy at those levels!!! You don't know what to expect. Same for BAT. It seems like it will get support at 430 but no one knows if that will hold!!! Consider staggering the buys over the 3 days ending Wednesday I am all bought out. Went all in for more. ABP of shares bought this week 38/=. Now we wait. I am long, long term investor. I love the EPS, expansion, management etc. of Equity!!! I am in it for the long haul. James Mwangi will sell out before me. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/21/2017 Posts: 48
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:I'd lump up BAT and Stanchart together. They are great dividend stocks with yields of above 10% and are great during these recession years as they can make up for any foregone capital gains with their decent dividend yields.
Unfortunately, they are not the darling of the foreign investors, who tend to go for stocks that have interrupted sectors of an economy, the likes of Safaricom and Equity Bank - the blue eyed boys. Such stocks tend to be growth stocks but with a track record of paying dividends. And because these foreign investors tend to have deep pockets, the blue eyed stocks get bid and their prices soar, which also partly explains their low dividend yields. SCBK has not disappointed. A great defensive stock, providing some level of comfort during this brutal bear. I don't think this share gets the credit/attention it deserves. Considerable volumes transacted over the past couple weeks but I guess this is a result of the dividend announcement. Hopefully, price will do down once its ex-div and I'll grab some more for the long term. Life is a beach and I'm just playing in the sand
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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Ericsson wrote:Queen wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Queen wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! If you factor in the transactional charges, your gains are only 10.8%.... not very attractive since the direction of the share price is still uncertain/unpredictable. To each, their own. As for me, 10% in 6 days IS EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE! As for the direction of the stock, the trend is downwards, has been since November 2021 when for the first time in a decade, they reported reduced profits. Of course, at some point, the trend will reverse, hopefully in May, if the profitability improves when they release FY2022-2023. Until then, what we have now is a retracement. The order book(offboard bids and offers) also points to a downward trend. Agreed. What is your take on BAT trading @420-430 despite declaring such a juicy final dividend? Yard stick is 12% dividend yield Even if this was true... BAT dividend- 57/= That is a 13.6% dividend yield at a price of 420/=. Even if we ignore the already paid 5/= already paid and focus on the 52/= pending final dividend, that is still 12.4% dividend yield!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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obiero wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:cnn wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Meanwhile, another trading day, another rout. The bears firmly on the driver's seat! I am already in the red on additional shares I bought this week because I knew announcement of results might push them up. I made sure I bought on Monday and some on Tuesday!! Then it was Rhumba time!!! My biggest problem is not even the price per say (I am long term) but how many more shares I would have bought had I bought today or probably next week. And it is maaany!!! The regret/opportunity costs/mistakes etc can make one overindulge especially seeing today is Furahiday. Honestly,this week has been like playing in the casino. You want to seat on your hands but the temptation to press sell/buy button overwhelms you! Exactly!!! I still need to buy more Equity and watching the market today tells me I should go in on Monday at 37 - 38. I might go in and we discover new lows. Or there is a turn around and I even don't get the chance to buy at those levels!!! You don't know what to expect. Same for BAT. It seems like it will get support at 430 but no one knows if that will hold!!! Consider staggering the buys over the 3 days ending Wednesday Today was my day one,whatever will be will be. The prices were quite enticing today! @cnn the trigger has been pulled too quickly, patience is a virtue.. but your boldness is commendable Out of KCB yesterday and today after getting in last Friday and Monday...16% gain after deducting transaction costs.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Tomorrow, season 2 of the rout begins! It never happened. It is like they never got the memo!!! You have @cnn and @littledove to thank for this. The duo ploughed back their EABL cheques and kept the market going. Not forgetting @Mwanahisa who went all in just before the EFTs were effected I salute them!  Not yet...the funds will find the way into the market from Monday,but i am glad i went for that trade.
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