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slick
#5421 Posted : Thursday, June 11, 2020 10:53:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
mnandii wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Just to make a point once again. The so quoted hope-filled rally is complete at 27,000. The next major move is DOWN. It will be sharp. It will be painful. It will catch you off-guard. Yet Elliott is shouting a warning right now!


Trump is saying it can only continue with the upward journey!!!!


Trump is proved wrong. The venerable FED is proved wrong. Fundamentals as popularly practised is proved wrong.

Only Elliott Waves can anticipate these turns.smile



Expect further downside to the DJIA.



@mnandii.One day does not make a market.Recall what I stated in an earlier post as below

Quote:

"@mnandii.Yes I agree with you that a major downturn in the market is inevitable.This massive meltup is grossly over-extended and extremely frothy.This rally is fake from Fed money printing but I take advantage of all that massive Fed money pump and go long even though I know its fake and a joke.Markets are mis-pricing the risk of a second covid-19 wave and the bankruptcy crisis thats about to hit especially small businesses that didnt benefit from the Fed money printing bailouts.I definitely cannot know when the 2 risks mentioned above will hit the market.One shouldnt forget that the market mispriced the covid-19 risk in late January and early February.Once the Wuhan lockdown was effected on January 23rd,the market still kept going up as Fed repo money printing kept the game going.US investors assumed that Covid-19 is largely a Chinese problem and US had just a handful of cases and the assumption is that it was an over-glorified flu was rampant.I was generally but cautiously long the market until when reality of Covid-19 finally hit the market on February 19th and the sharp downturn and fastest collapse of the S&P 500 in history manifested from late February to late March when I went massively short.

As I said I agree with the downturn that you are predicting maybe coming but the timing of it is impossible.Its very feasible that the Dow and S&P 500 may also hit all time highs now that the NASDAQ did and its also possible the market may crash again in the next few days.Nobody has the exact prognosis of the market and either of these scenarios could happen.Thus for me I review the market on a day to day basis and trade each day on its own.I can be long and short the same stock on the same day not caring about overall market direction and just scalp short term trends.Once that sharp downturn manifests I will be ready to short the market once more."


Thus for me I simply dont care about market direction.Yes the market is exceptionally overbought as I have stated numerous times and should fall.In fact for me fair value for the Dow is maximum 10,000 and this run up is just a ridiculous bubble but dont count out the Fed out just yet.Its just one trading day and if this persists for the next few days/weeks the Fed will intervene aggressively to pump up the market once more just like they did in late March.

It seems as I said maybe the market is finally waking up to the prospect of a second covid-19 wave.Lets see how the market behaves in the next few days.One simply cannot tell market action for the future especially this volatile market.Who knows market may rebound tomorrow or maybe next week.

Whether the market tanks or rebounds is irrelevant to me.As I have said before I assess the market each day on its merits and demerits.Today was a massive bear day and I went massively short and made serious $$$$Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly .If tomorrow the market rebounds I will be long the market.If the market is bearish at market open I will be short and if it rebounds later in the day I will be long.I have actually been twice long and twice short one stock on the same day 2 weeks ago.Short term trends is what matters to me.

Dont be too quick to predict the end of the bull run.Nobody knows the prognosis of the market.Dow could hit 20,000 and below or could even hit 30,000.Personally I want the market to tank and achieve fair value as this bubble is ridiculous but if the Fed wants to pump the markets once more then I will just ride the uptrend again and go long.That's why I never make predictions that e.g. the Dow will hit 27,000 or 20,000 by a certain date.I just trade the market conditions I see on a day to day basis.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#5422 Posted : Thursday, June 11, 2020 11:32:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Just to make a point once again. The so quoted hope-filled rally is complete at 27,000. The next major move is DOWN. It will be sharp. It will be painful. It will catch you off-guard. Yet Elliott is shouting a warning right now!


Trump is saying it can only continue with the upward journey!!!!


Trump is proved wrong. The venerable FED is proved wrong. Fundamentals as popularly practised is proved wrong.

Only Elliott Waves can anticipate these turns.smile



Expect further downside to the DJIA.



@mnandii.One day does not make a market.Recall what I stated in an earlier post as below

Quote:

"@mnandii.Yes I agree with you that a major downturn in the market is inevitable.This massive meltup is grossly over-extended and extremely frothy.This rally is fake from Fed money printing but I take advantage of all that massive Fed money pump and go long even though I know its fake and a joke.Markets are mis-pricing the risk of a second covid-19 wave and the bankruptcy crisis thats about to hit especially small businesses that didnt benefit from the Fed money printing bailouts.I definitely cannot know when the 2 risks mentioned above will hit the market.One shouldnt forget that the market mispriced the covid-19 risk in late January and early February.Once the Wuhan lockdown was effected on January 23rd,the market still kept going up as Fed repo money printing kept the game going.US investors assumed that Covid-19 is largely a Chinese problem and US had just a handful of cases and the assumption is that it was an over-glorified flu was rampant.I was generally but cautiously long the market until when reality of Covid-19 finally hit the market on February 19th and the sharp downturn and fastest collapse of the S&P 500 in history manifested from late February to late March when I went massively short.

As I said I agree with the downturn that you are predicting maybe coming but the timing of it is impossible.Its very feasible that the Dow and S&P 500 may also hit all time highs now that the NASDAQ did and its also possible the market may crash again in the next few days.Nobody has the exact prognosis of the market and either of these scenarios could happen.Thus for me I review the market on a day to day basis and trade each day on its own.I can be long and short the same stock on the same day not caring about overall market direction and just scalp short term trends.Once that sharp downturn manifests I will be ready to short the market once more."


Thus for me I simply dont care about market direction.Yes the market is exceptionally overbought as I have stated numerous times and should fall.In fact for me fair value for the Dow is maximum 10,000 and this run up is just a ridiculous bubble but dont count out the Fed out just yet.Its just one trading day and if this persists for the next few days/weeks the Fed will intervene aggressively to pump up the market once more just like they did in late March.

It seems as I said maybe the market is finally waking up to the prospect of a second covid-19 wave.Lets see how the market behaves in the next few days.One simply cannot tell market action for the future especially this volatile market.Who knows market may rebound tomorrow or maybe next week.

Whether the market tanks or rebounds is irrelevant to me.As I have said before I assess the market each day on its merits and demerits.Today was a massive bear day and I went massively short and made serious $$$$Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly .If tomorrow the market rebounds I will be long the market.If the market is bearish at market open I will be short and if it rebounds later in the day I will be long.I have actually been twice long and twice short one stock on the same day 2 weeks ago.Short term trends is what matters to me.

Dont be too quick to predict the end of the bull run.Nobody knows the prognosis of the market.Dow could hit 20,000 and below or could even hit 30,000.Personally I want the market to tank and achieve fair value as this bubble is ridiculous but if the Fed wants to pump the markets once more then I will just ride the uptrend again and go long.That's why I never make predictions that e.g. the Dow will hit 27,000 or 20,000 by a certain date.I just trade the market conditions I see on a day to day basis.


Also,you have been predicting this epic crash when the Dow was 22,000;23,000;24,000;24,500,25,000,26,000 as per your earlier posts below yet it rose until 27,000 before today's correction.Of course this run up was too extended and a correction was inevitable thus its not that you nailed the 27,000.You have been saying this all along adjusting your target all the time Dow keeps going up










Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#5423 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2020 12:44:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
Dow futures up 600 points after yesterday's near 1900 point sell off

You just have to love Wall Street.The Fed,Wall Street banks ie Plunge Protection Team will pull any stunts to pump back their fake market.As usual today presents another interesting trading day.





So was jana one day sell-off and we shall march higher or will @mnandii thesis that this is the beginning of a broader sell off back to Dow 20,000 and below play out?I dont know and dont care.Predicting this market in the short term is impossible and its gambling.

Best strategy in my opinion is to just day trade this market ie open and close positions on the same trading day and do not hold positions overnight.I am certain most traders went net short yesterday after the plunge holding their shorts overnight and it seems likely that their shorts may be decimated at market open.I was massively short yesterday and closed all my positions in the last 5 minutes of the trading day.

Who knows,the futures market may reverse to the negative possibly from some Trump tweet,more covid-19 bad news or any other factor may derail the rally and today becomes another sell off day.Nobody knows what will happen.Today is a new fresh day and I will reassess market conditions just before market open and throughout trading day.If there is a rally I will go long and if the market tanks I will go short.Its also likely the market will have large swings both to the upside and downside today and I will scalp both long and short positions multiple times during the day if this happens.Either way its likely I may make money today (or may lose just the same).Its the nature of the wild mad Wall Street gameLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Though on most Fridays people sell as they fear holding positions into weekend especially if market tanked on Thursday yet the Plunge Protection Team may decide to buy back the market into the close not wanting the market to close as weekly lows and spook investors to panic sell on Monday.We shall see.ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN and I will trade appropriately

Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#5424 Posted : Tuesday, June 16, 2020 8:13:46 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
mnandii wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Just to make a point once again. The so quoted hope-filled rally is complete at 27,000. The next major move is DOWN. It will be sharp. It will be painful. It will catch you off-guard. Yet Elliott is shouting a warning right now!


Trump is saying it can only continue with the upward journey!!!!


Trump is proved wrong. The venerable FED is proved wrong. Fundamentals as popularly practised is proved wrong.

Only Elliott Waves can anticipate these turns.smile



Expect further downside to the DJIA.



Well @mnandii your Elliot wave didnt nail the rally thats happening on Wall Street.This is a MAD MARKET.Sure I agree with you that this market should decline but my opinion and yours dont matter especially when the Fed can unleash new money printing schemes to pump up the market.

As I have said many times before there are two titanic forces battling in this market ie Covid-19 deflationary forces vs Fed money printing inflationary forces.These 2 combatants battle daily.Last Thursday Covid-19 second wave threat won that round,on Friday the market see-sawed but finished higher.Yesterday Covid-19 second wave threat was winning the opening round as pre-market stock futures and the first few minutes of market open was down big but then the Fed announced an new money printing scheme to buy even more corporate bonds (an initial 250 billion USD of corporate bond buying and definitely more to come) and the market rallied all day.As soon as the Fed announced this and the market started to rally I just went long all day and made good $$$Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly







As I said its impossible to predict direction in this volatile mad market as the 2 combatants keep having an edge over each other at different periods of the market so reassess and trade each market on a day to day basis.Yes the market should tank big but as I said the Fed wont stand idle and allow this to happen and will engineer a fake rally.Its utterly ridiculous that the Fed is buying corporate bonds.Can we also have Tuskys thats in distress issue corporate bonds and have Opus Dei just print new KES and buy them??Also equally asinine is the the Fed and US government are refusing to reveal which specific companies are being bailed out in this manner as they are dubiously saving their friends who squandered their cash reserves in stock buybacks and executive stock option bonuses.

Could the market seriously tank today.Sure it may but it may also rally if the Fed keeps the printing presses hot.Instead of trying to predict what will happen just assess market conditions on a day to day basis and trade the market you see not the market that you want.

Yes in the very long term the Fed will lose its ability to manipulate markets higher but currently Fed calls the shots


Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#5425 Posted : Tuesday, June 16, 2020 9:37:48 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Just to make a point once again. The so quoted hope-filled rally is complete at 27,000. The next major move is DOWN. It will be sharp. It will be painful. It will catch you off-guard. Yet Elliott is shouting a warning right now!


Trump is saying it can only continue with the upward journey!!!!


Trump is proved wrong. The venerable FED is proved wrong. Fundamentals as popularly practised is proved wrong.

Only Elliott Waves can anticipate these turns.smile



Expect further downside to the DJIA.



Well @mnandii your Elliot wave didnt nail the rally thats happening on Wall Street.This is a MAD MARKET.Sure I agree with you that this market should decline but my opinion and yours dont matter especially when the Fed can unleash new money printing schemes to pump up the market.

As I have said many times before there are two titanic forces battling in this market ie Covid-19 deflationary forces vs Fed money printing inflationary forces.These 2 combatants battle daily.Last Thursday Covid-19 second wave threat won that round,on Friday the market see-sawed but finished higher.Yesterday Covid-19 second wave threat was winning the opening round as pre-market stock futures and the first few minutes of market open was down big but then the Fed announced an new money printing scheme to buy even more corporate bonds (an initial 250 billion USD of corporate bond buying and definitely more to come) and the market rallied all day.As soon as the Fed announced this and the market started to rally I just went long all day and made good $$$Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly







As I said its impossible to predict direction in this volatile mad market as the 2 combatants keep having an edge over each other at different periods of the market so reassess and trade each market on a day to day basis.Yes the market should tank big but as I said the Fed wont stand idle and allow this to happen and will engineer a fake rally.Its utterly ridiculous that the Fed is buying corporate bonds.Can we also have Tuskys thats in distress issue corporate bonds and have Opus Dei just print new KES and buy them??Also equally asinine is the the Fed and US government are refusing to reveal which specific companies are being bailed out in this manner as they are dubiously saving their friends who squandered their cash reserves in stock buybacks and executive stock option bonuses.

Could the market seriously tank today.Sure it may but it may also rally if the Fed keeps the printing presses hot.Instead of trying to predict what will happen just assess market conditions on a day to day basis and trade the market you see not the market that you want.

Yes in the very long term the Fed will lose its ability to manipulate markets higher but currently Fed calls the shots




Dow futures up over 400 points amid report that Trump is preparing $1 trillion infrastructure proposal Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



Fake market pump by the Fed and Trump never relents.They will do anything to keep the market buoyant.Now where is Trump going to get this 1 trillion??Most of it the Fed will print it up and buy government treasuries to fund the infrastructure.Can Opus Dei just print trillions of KES and fund the building of roads in Kenya.Nope he cant

Well lets see if the rally will be sustainable today.Anything can happen.Some Covid-19 news may tank the market its a fools errand and just impossible to predict this.We shall trade the market conditions that we see and wont care if the market rallies or tanks.

So what does this all money printing bonanza mean in the very long term.A possible USD collapse?Thats certainly an outcome.Even a reserve currency cant bend the rules of economics forever but that inevitable outcome is possibly many years away.For now King USD reigns supreme (even though the Dollar index has declined slightly over other major fiat currencies)



Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
mnandii
#5426 Posted : Tuesday, October 06, 2020 7:24:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,256


The DOW i.e DJIA will fall to levels below 21400 soon.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
kmucheke
#5427 Posted : Tuesday, October 06, 2020 11:17:42 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 227
mnandii wrote:


The DOW i.e DJIA will fall to levels below 21400 soon.


This is a very bold prediction.

I'm expecting the DJIA to go up due to POTUS' recovery and the expected economic stimulus.

Anyway, the market will go where it wants.
kmucheke
#5428 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2020 5:35:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 227
kmucheke wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The DOW i.e DJIA will fall to levels below 21400 soon.


This is a very bold prediction.

I'm expecting the DJIA to go up due to POTUS' recovery and the expected economic stimulus.

Anyway, the market will go where it wants.


21,400 not likely. Update the prediction.
Covid vaccine trial success and possibly the Biden win has produced the following

US 30 Futures 29,778.0
Dow Jones 29,839.71
Rollout
#5429 Posted : Friday, November 13, 2020 5:59:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/26/2011
Posts: 738
I was hoping for a 20% drop in the market so I can get in, unfortunately it didn't happen!!!!
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