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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2018 Posts: 561 Location: Britain
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young wrote:Queen wrote:obiero wrote:Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2 Actual 12.8
EQTY 14 Actual 11.9
COOP 10.2 Actual 9.6
I&M 6.9 Actual 4.5
ABSA 6.2 Actual 3.3
SCBK 6.1 Actual 5.1
DTB 5.8 Actual 4.48
NCBA 4.8 Actual 3.91
STANB 4.2 Actual 4.1
HFCK 0.042 Actual -0.296
A tragedy at ABSA.. Expect worse results in Q3 for all banks as the restructuring denies core interest income and provisions rise Except for Coop Bank, everything else is a total disaster. Not exactly . Some others are still manageable based on current covid situation . Take a look further on the details like PAT, EPS etc you will realize that in addition to COOP, then KCB, EQITY, NCBA are fairly ok but on discounted price of 10% of the current price which is achievable when market correction sets in occasioned by short term taking of profits by investors . The problem is that Covid shall be with us for a while and even pre-covid, the situation was still dire.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Queen wrote:young wrote:Queen wrote:obiero wrote:Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2 Actual 12.8
EQTY 14 Actual 11.9
COOP 10.2 Actual 9.6
I&M 6.9 Actual 4.5
ABSA 6.2 Actual 3.3
SCBK 6.1 Actual 5.1
DTB 5.8 Actual 4.48
NCBA 4.8 Actual 3.91
STANB 4.2 Actual 4.1
HFCK 0.042 Actual -0.296
A tragedy at ABSA.. Expect worse results in Q3 for all banks as the restructuring denies core interest income and provisions rise Except for Coop Bank, everything else is a total disaster. Not exactly . Some others are still manageable based on current covid situation . Take a look further on the details like PAT, EPS etc you will realize that in addition to COOP, then KCB, EQITY, NCBA are fairly ok but on discounted price of 10% of the current price which is achievable when market correction sets in occasioned by short term taking of profits by investors . The problem is that Covid shall be with us for a while and even pre-covid, the situation was still dire. 1 COVID When vaccine is found the whole world economy will RESET and accelerate including global stock market. Latest by July 2021. We pray to be still alive then. 2020 is an abnormal year so stocks investment wise all of us are effected. Nonetheles one has to find ways of minimising the negative impact on our portfolios and incomes , not necessarily by selling off but optimization to pick the best of the best based on our investment strategy. 2 NAIROBI BOURSE You can ONLY survive if you develop a strategy that is profitable and you are comfortable with. You either invest for capital appreciation or income or combination of both. My strategy since 2010 has been income (dividends) . Two things are important - Study the company results - Be your own teacher in stocks selection but ONLY learn from others. Just as people are quitting (which I almost did), a few are making moderate gains periodically . If there are no gains , a non resident foreign investor like me would have quit the bourse long time ago. I gain in dividends but I often loose in capital appreciation but on the long term I gain on both but income(dividend) is what I am hunting for. A good stock will always recover in price on the long term . When a good stock becomes bad (due to consistent poor results like 2years) you cut loss by selling off and positioning in good stocks. This is what works for me but may not work for others. Political risk like 2022 is not new to me. For income investors, you get a high DY and later the price recovers . That has been the trend. I have been investing here since 2004, but got my act together in 2010. That is 6 wasted years of fumbling due to lack of clear cut strategy . The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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Ericsson wrote:young wrote:Ericsson wrote:Ericsson wrote:Ericsson wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:obiero wrote:Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2 Actual 12.8
EQTY 14 Actual 11.9
COOP 10.2 Actual 9.6
I&M 6.9 Actual 4.5
ABSA 6.2 Actual 3.3
SCBK 6.1 Actual 5.1
DTB 5.8 Actual 4.48
NCBA 4.8 Actual 3.91
STANB 4.2 Actual 4.1
HFCK 0.042 Actual -0.293
Equity is catching up with KCB  . Stanchart ksh.5.1bn No interim dividend DTB Ksh.4.48bn I&M ksh.4.5bn NCBA. Ksh 3.91bn Outstanding ..ABSA & HFCK HFCK Loss of Ksh.293.8mn ABSA ksh.3.3bn Correction HFCK loss before tax at Ksh.293.8mn Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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There was a time I was huge fan of banking stocks. I would give them money for rights issue. Now can't touch this Quote:Banks will have to get the approval of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) before declaring dividends for the current financial year, according to a new directive by the regulator that is focused on ensuring lenders have enough capital to ride out the Covid-19 pandemic. The CBK’s directive, confirmed by multiple bank executives, indicates that investors on the Nairobi Securities Exchange will forego dividends running into billions of shillings. https://www.businessdail...5354-mg704kz/index.html
I would rather give that capital to my sacco
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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wukan wrote:There was a time I was huge fan of banking stocks. I would give them money for rights issue. Now can't touch this Quote:Banks will have to get the approval of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) before declaring dividends for the current financial year, according to a new directive by the regulator that is focused on ensuring lenders have enough capital to ride out the Covid-19 pandemic. The CBK’s directive, confirmed by multiple bank executives, indicates that investors on the Nairobi Securities Exchange will forego dividends running into billions of shillings. https://www.businessdail...5354-mg704kz/index.html
I would rather give that capital to my sacco Now is time to live life, eat it with a big spoon. No investments at the NSE upto 2022, unless prices get abnormally low, which is likely.. Remember next year will start to get noisy as Raila moves towards the throne
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:wukan wrote:There was a time I was huge fan of banking stocks. I would give them money for rights issue. Now can't touch this Quote:Banks will have to get the approval of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) before declaring dividends for the current financial year, according to a new directive by the regulator that is focused on ensuring lenders have enough capital to ride out the Covid-19 pandemic. The CBK’s directive, confirmed by multiple bank executives, indicates that investors on the Nairobi Securities Exchange will forego dividends running into billions of shillings. https://www.businessdail...5354-mg704kz/index.html
I would rather give that capital to my sacco Now is time to live life, eat it with a big spoon. No investments at the NSE upto 2022, unless prices get abnormally low, which is likely.. Remember next year will start to get noisy as Raila moves towards the throne KQ nationalization and HFCK buyout Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:There was a time I was huge fan of banking stocks. I would give them money for rights issue. Now can't touch this Quote:Banks will have to get the approval of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) before declaring dividends for the current financial year, according to a new directive by the regulator that is focused on ensuring lenders have enough capital to ride out the Covid-19 pandemic. The CBK’s directive, confirmed by multiple bank executives, indicates that investors on the Nairobi Securities Exchange will forego dividends running into billions of shillings. https://www.businessdail...5354-mg704kz/index.html
I would rather give that capital to my sacco Now is time to live life, eat it with a big spoon. No investments at the NSE upto 2022, unless prices get abnormally low, which is likely.. Remember next year will start to get noisy as Raila moves towards the throne KQ nationalization and HFCK buyout Let me leave this here https://www.businessdail...5354-mg704kz/index.html
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/9/2010 Posts: 320 Location: kenya
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Did anyone here attend AGM for SCANK. Please share the notes and comments. Thanks Work hard at your job and you can make a living. Work hard on yourself and you can make a fortune.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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cyruskulei wrote:Did anyone here attend AGM for SCANK. Please share the notes and comments. Thanks Check on the Scangroup thread. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results. Ooliskia wapi! Things fall apart.. 
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results. Ooliskia wapi! Things fall apart.. NCBA and I&M the figures are too ambitious Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results. Ooliskia wapi! Things fall apart.. NCBA and I&M the figures are too ambitious IM bank is quite conservative in its lending. I doubt there will be a significant impact here
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results. Ooliskia wapi! Things fall apart.. NCBA and I&M the figures are too ambitious On I&M, we will know soon whether you or Obiero are right. What's your estimate of Q3 for I&M? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:Due to the corona virus pandemic effect in the economy,exchange bar is not able to give guidance on Q3 2020 results. Ooliskia wapi! Things fall apart.. NCBA and I&M the figures are too ambitious On I&M, we will know soon whether you or Obiero are right. What's your estimate of Q3 for I&M? 6.2 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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ABSA Q3 PBT Profit before tax exceptional items ksh.5.335bn Profit before tax after exceptional items ksh.3.391bn Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:ABSA Q3 PBT
Profit before tax exceptional items ksh.5.335bn
Profit before tax after exceptional items ksh.3.391bn Apandaye ngazi hushuka
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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Coop bank 13.8bn Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:Coop bank 13.8bn A strong bank
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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Stanchart 6.56bn Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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