Queen wrote:young wrote:Queen wrote:obiero wrote:Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2 Actual 12.8
EQTY 14 Actual 11.9
COOP 10.2 Actual 9.6
I&M 6.9 Actual 4.5
ABSA 6.2 Actual 3.3
SCBK 6.1 Actual 5.1
DTB 5.8 Actual 4.48
NCBA 4.8 Actual 3.91
STANB 4.2 Actual 4.1
HFCK 0.042 Actual -0.296
A tragedy at ABSA.. Expect worse results in Q3 for all banks as the restructuring denies core interest income and provisions rise
Except for Coop Bank, everything else is a total disaster.
Not exactly . Some others are still manageable based on current covid situation .
Take a look further on the details like PAT, EPS etc you will realize that in addition to COOP, then KCB, EQITY, NCBA are fairly ok but on discounted price of 10% of the current price which is achievable when market correction sets in occasioned by short term taking of profits by investors .
The problem is that Covid shall be with us for a while and even pre-covid, the situation was still dire.
1 COVID
When vaccine is found the whole world economy will RESET and accelerate including global stock market. Latest by July 2021. We pray to be still alive then.
2020 is an abnormal year so stocks investment wise all of us are effected.
Nonetheles one has to find ways of minimising the negative impact on our portfolios and incomes , not necessarily by selling off but optimization to pick the best of the best based on our investment strategy.
2 NAIROBI BOURSE
You can ONLY survive if you develop a strategy that is profitable and you are comfortable with. You either invest for capital appreciation or income or combination of both. My strategy since 2010 has been income (dividends) .
Two things are important
- Study the company results
- Be your own teacher in stocks selection but ONLY learn from others.
Just as people are quitting (which I almost did), a few are making moderate gains periodically .
If there are no gains , a non resident foreign investor like me would have quit the bourse long time ago. I gain in dividends but I often loose in capital appreciation but on the long term I gain on both but income(dividend) is what I am hunting for. A good stock will always recover in price on the long term .
When a good stock becomes bad (due to consistent poor results like 2years) you cut loss by selling off and positioning in good stocks.
This is what works for me but may not work for others.
Political risk like 2022 is not new to me.
For income investors, you get a high DY and later the price recovers . That has been the trend.
I have been investing here since 2004, but got my act together in 2010. That is 6 wasted years of fumbling due to lack of clear cut strategy .
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .