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PLAYING THE MARKET-A NEW YEAR RESOLUTION
gladiator
#171 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 3:08:39 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/25/2006
Posts: 101
stocksmaster wrote:


The Safaricom results were as anticipated but this did not result in a satisfactory capital appreciation.

The forthcoming referendum is destined to affect the NSE, and with one month to go expect foreigners to begin taking a back seat (political risk). A market correction seems ripe in July to factor this risk.

I intend to take a back seat also and watch closely for any bargains that arise due to the referendum.

Happy hunting.


Good to see someone else believe what I said last month that the NSE was approaching a slowdown and it was time to start taking profits especially with "referendoom" and the euro crisis. Good job by the way with your trades. I am up 40% for the year mostly from trading EQTY but NSE is up 35% so not filling that good yet.
youcan'tstopusnow
#172 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 8:45:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Why is it "easier" for investors in the NSE to beat the market than for investors in the NYSE? If you beat the market in the US you are treated like a god
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
komera
#173 Posted : Thursday, July 01, 2010 1:47:25 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/29/2010
Posts: 56
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
ACTIVITY 7: SALE OF 120,000 SAFARICOM SHARES @ KSH 5.85
DATES OF TRANSACTIONS: 25TH, 28TH & 29TH JUNE 2010

VALUE OF TRANSACTION:120,000 X Ksh 5.85 = Ksh 702,000
Less 2% transaction cost = Ksh 14,040

Cash Received from activity 7 = Ksh 687,960
Cash in hand after activity 6 = Ksh 122,430

Cash in hand after activity 7 = Ksh 810,390

Half Year Results:

Initial Investment = Ksh 527,850

Net Profit for the six months = Ksh 282,540

Profit as a percentage of initial investment = 53.5 %

Way forward

The Safaricom results were as anticipated but this did not result in a satisfactory capital appreciation.

The forthcoming referendum is destined to affect the NSE, and with one month to go expect foreigners to begin taking a back seat (political risk). A market correction seems ripe in July to factor this risk.

I intend to take a back seat also and watch closely for any bargains that arise due to the referendum.

Happy hunting.



mY 2 cents, stocksmaster you seem to have done very well here, i suggest yo take your initial investment of 500k from the market and start again wth the 250k you have and you wont worry bout the market fluctuations.

Its anticipated for the market to start correcting itself, unless you see some bargain counters
ECHOKENYA
#174 Posted : Thursday, July 01, 2010 4:58:57 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 4/26/2010
Posts: 71
Location: Thika/Nairobi
The essence here is to make money,just like in properties,buy low sell high.
Just some research and much consultation needed to arrive at this.
http://echoproperties.kbo.co.ke
Echo estate management Limited
stocksmaster
#175 Posted : Thursday, July 08, 2010 10:08:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
ACTIVITY 8:PURCHASE OF 3100 STANCHART SHARES @ AVERAGE PRICE OF KSH 228
DATE OF ACTIVITIES:7TH & 8TH JULY 2010

VALUE OF ACTIVITY 8: KSH 228 X 3100 = KSH 706,800

ADD 2% Transaction cost = KSH 14,200

TOTAL COST OF ACTIVITY 8 = KSH 721,000

CASH IN HAND AFTER ACTIVITY 7 = KSH 810,390

CASH IN HAND AFTER ACTIVITY 8 = KSH 89,390

RATIONALE OF PURCHASE
1. Rights issue on the horizon
2. 27M additional shares issued (a 10% increase)from the previous 272M thus a potential 1:10 rights offer.
3. Target of Ksh 2.5B means offer price could be as low as Ksh 95 per share (assuming target of Ksh 2.5B and all 27M shares offered at a ratio of 1:10)
4. Reason for rights is to buy Portion of Barclays bank business with a yearly revenue of Ksh 600M (With the aim to grow it to a Ksh 1B revenue business by 2012). Cost of the acquisition is Ksh 1.88B with remainder money raised to be ploughed back to the bank business.
5. Good dividend history (pays almost 75% of net profits as dividends). Also pays interim dividends.
6. 1st Quarter 2010 growth of 39% (almost overtaking Barclays if this growth persists......remember its even taking 600M business from barclays)
7. A good diffensive stock for the forthcoming referendum........
8. Limited liquidity of the stock means should the details of the rights offer excite the market, the share could experience reasonable capital gains.

Happy hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
VituVingiSana
#176 Posted : Friday, July 09, 2010 1:27:09 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
@stocksmaster - What is your gain to date?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#177 Posted : Friday, July 09, 2010 8:03:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@stocksmaster, you have bought SCB? Totally unexpected for stocks play. SCB should be a longer term stock IMO. All the best
Life is short. Live passionately.
youcan'tstopusnow
#178 Posted : Friday, July 09, 2010 8:50:34 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
stocksmaster, true, Stanchart would be a great defensive stock for the referendum if anything goes wrong.
sparkly, I wouldn't term a 42.24% rise in its share price year to date long term at all. In fact its brilliant. But all the same like stocksmaster says, he'll get some nice dividends
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
the deal
#179 Posted : Friday, July 09, 2010 11:52:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Stockmaster u have just gone too defensive...forget this referundum BS...if i were you...i would have gone into UNGA or BBK...BBK reported a 9% drop in Q1 profits due to once off staff costs...come 1H they will have swung back into profitability...i think that would excite the markets and push the stock up...
the deal
#180 Posted : Friday, July 09, 2010 11:53:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Stockmaster u have just gone too defensive...forget this referundum BS...if i were you...i would have gone into UNGA or BBK...BBK reported a 9% drop in Q1 profits due to once off staff costs...come 1H they will have swung back into profitability...i think that would excite the markets and push the stock up...
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