Wazua
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Value Investing doesn't work anymore
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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VituVingiSana wrote:amorphous wrote:sqft wrote:I think that @amorphous (or whoever he may morph into) has raised a very important point which all investors must not ignore. And that is - can one live off investments at the NSE? To maintain a middle-class lifestyle in Nairobi you need some 300k each month. So it means that if you are lucky to get a 10% dividend (before tax) to maintain the lifestyle, you need to have an investment of KES 36m at the NSE. I don't want to bring in the issue of capital gains or capital losses. So how many wazuans have invested 36m at the NSE?
The only wazuan to have declared his portfolio at NSE is @obiero. All the other wazuans list some amorphous percentages of their holdings so one can never know the amount of their investment at the NSE.
So let's look at a typical wazuan's portfolio, in this case @obieros last known portfolio: 5500 COOP, 2000 HF, 7500 KCB, 100000 KENR, 392,100 KQ. At today's prices (3rd June 2020) COOP (12.40), HF (3.74), KCB (34.95), KNRE (2.30), KQ (1.99), his portfolio is worth about 1.35m. If a miracle happens and he gets a 10% dividend, that's 135k pa, or 11k a month before tax. So how would he survive on such an amount? Even a mama mboga makes more than that. Is the 11K worth the time and stress involved monitoring the stock market performance every day?
Even that 11k they do not make. Notice how VVS tells long stories about nothing. Nothing he says adds up.  Together with learning to live with my aching joints, I have learnt patience. We have seen many like you huffing and puffing. It's all good.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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People are realizing that value investing does not work simply because the character of the market changed. Whereas in the past few years the major markets were in a strong bull trend, the turn to a bear market is finding people off-guard. Even the venerable Oracle of Omaha can not many any meaningful sense out of this. The reason is that the bull market cushioned people with questionable investment strategies. In a major bull market almost any share price is likely to go up. So it is not rocket science to make money by buying just about anything. In contrast, a bear market is more demanding strategy-wise. The strategies that worked so well in a bull market suddenly become ineffective to ward off losses. The reason is not that these strategies are suddenly not working. The important point is that the strategies were never effective from the onset, only that the raging bull blinded people to the truth. A bear market brings reality and sanity. Only the best of strategies work in both bear markets and bull markets i.e all the time as they should. And in this bear market, Elliott Waves are even more better suited. Beacause in a bear market, the fear in people creates perfect Elliott Wave patterns that are even more clearly perceived. This bear market will teach the discerning the very best strategies to forecast a market, any market, any time. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:People are realizing that value investing does not work simply because the character of the market changed. Whereas in the past few years the major markets were in a strong bull trend, the turn to a bear market is finding people off-guard. Even the venerable Oracle of Omaha can not many any meaningful sense out of this.
The reason is that the bull market cushioned people with questionable investment strategies. In a major bull market almost any share price is likely to go up. So it is not rocket science to make money by buying just about anything.
In contrast, a bear market is more demanding strategy-wise. The strategies that worked so well in a bull market suddenly become ineffective to ward off losses. The reason is not that these strategies are suddenly not working. The important point is that the strategies were never effective from the onset, only that the raging bull blinded people to the truth. A bear market brings reality and sanity. Only the best of strategies work in both bear markets and bull markets i.e all the time as they should.
And in this bear market, Elliott Waves are even more better suited. Beacause in a bear market, the fear in people creates perfect Elliott Wave patterns that are even more clearly perceived.
This bear market will teach the discerning the very best strategies to forecast a market, any market, any time. I have been following your other thread. I do not know how to "mark" posts for the future but I have asked we look at some of your picks/forecasts in the future Perhaps we should start a new thread. I can tell you my picks (probably my Core & 2nd tier) and you work your magic. We can compare in 4 years. As an example, I own Centum, I&M, Kenya Re, Unga. We can use Total Return (Capital Gains + Dividends). Others if you have time can include Stanbic, DTB, BAT, FTG, LKL. We use today's prices as our base and then set it out. We can compare/update every 6 months until 2024. Start today, or next week. 31 Dec 2020 1 July 2021 31 Dec 2021 1 July 2022 31 Dec 2022 1 July 2023 31 Dec 2023 1 July 2024 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2019 Posts: 119
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mnandii wrote:People are realizing that value investing does not work simply because the character of the market changed. Whereas in the past few years the major markets were in a strong bull trend, the turn to a bear market is finding people off-guard. Even the venerable Oracle of Omaha can not many any meaningful sense out of this.
The reason is that the bull market cushioned people with questionable investment strategies. In a major bull market almost any share price is likely to go up. So it is not rocket science to make money by buying just about anything.
In contrast, a bear market is more demanding strategy-wise. The strategies that worked so well in a bull market suddenly become ineffective to ward off losses. The reason is not that these strategies are suddenly not working. The important point is that the strategies were never effective from the onset, only that the raging bull blinded people to the truth. A bear market brings reality and sanity. Only the best of strategies work in both bear markets and bull markets i.e all the time as they should.
And in this bear market, Elliott Waves are even more better suited. Beacause in a bear market, the fear in people creates perfect Elliott Wave patterns that are even more clearly perceived.
This bear market will teach the discerning the very best strategies to forecast a market, any market, any time. The bear in the NSE casino has been with us for the past 5 years. (it did not start now with Corona). We have just about to bottom out. Cash is king for the so called "value investor". The problem with wazuans is that they want to play pata potea at the casino with kshs. 20000 and expect to make a kill or in worst case get burnt a little. My strategy is go hard or go home. e.g., why should i buy only 10,000 shares of Fahari i-reit at a kshs. 60000 bob yet i can purchase a 100,000 units by wekelea-ing 600 geez on this counter. A 60 cents(10%) rise is a whooping 60,000 bob. I can make 60 gees every other week/day at the NSE casino by merely betting kshs. 600,000. e.g., I buy 100000 shares of Fahari ireit today in the morning at 6 bob a share. I sell the same shares leo leo for ksh.6.60. That is a staggering 60 ngwanyes(before tax/commisions). Next week i wekelea my 650,000 bob and buy the NSE share at 7.20 bob and sell at 8 bob by lunch hour. I repeat this every other day and i will bid my evil employer goodbye.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/15/2019 Posts: 687 Location: planet earth
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:People are realizing that value investing does not work simply because the character of the market changed. Whereas in the past few years the major markets were in a strong bull trend, the turn to a bear market is finding people off-guard. Even the venerable Oracle of Omaha can not many any meaningful sense out of this.
The reason is that the bull market cushioned people with questionable investment strategies. In a major bull market almost any share price is likely to go up. So it is not rocket science to make money by buying just about anything.
In contrast, a bear market is more demanding strategy-wise. The strategies that worked so well in a bull market suddenly become ineffective to ward off losses. The reason is not that these strategies are suddenly not working. The important point is that the strategies were never effective from the onset, only that the raging bull blinded people to the truth. A bear market brings reality and sanity. Only the best of strategies work in both bear markets and bull markets i.e all the time as they should.
And in this bear market, Elliott Waves are even more better suited. Beacause in a bear market, the fear in people creates perfect Elliott Wave patterns that are even more clearly perceived.
This bear market will teach the discerning the very best strategies to forecast a market, any market, any time. I have been following your other thread. I do not know how to "mark" posts for the future but I have asked we look at some of your picks/forecasts in the future Perhaps we should start a new thread. I can tell you my picks (probably my Core & 2nd tier) and you work your magic. We can compare in 4 years. As an example, I own Centum, I&M, Kenya Re, Unga. We can use Total Return (Capital Gains + Dividends). Others if you have time can include Stanbic, DTB, BAT, FTG, LKL. We use today's prices as our base and then set it out. We can compare/update every 6 months until 2024. Start today, or next week. 31 Dec 2020 1 July 2021 31 Dec 2021 1 July 2022 31 Dec 2022 1 July 2023 31 Dec 2023 1 July 2024 I think this is an excellent idea from the mighty VVS. This way all his losses can be exposed in their full glory without amorphous needing to post even a comma or a fullstop. I assume these are all his current holdings? Then he can update us on all the trades he makes as we go along and I can keep a comprehensive spreadsheet as well to document each trading move of his. Dividends will also be pretty easy to keep up with. I suggest a brand new separate thread for this noble enterprise! In the final analysis, it all boils down to sheer plain old hard work and dogged persistence. Nothing more, nothing less!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/15/2019 Posts: 687 Location: planet earth
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Receptor wrote:mnandii wrote:People are realizing that value investing does not work simply because the character of the market changed. Whereas in the past few years the major markets were in a strong bull trend, the turn to a bear market is finding people off-guard. Even the venerable Oracle of Omaha can not many any meaningful sense out of this.
The reason is that the bull market cushioned people with questionable investment strategies. In a major bull market almost any share price is likely to go up. So it is not rocket science to make money by buying just about anything.
In contrast, a bear market is more demanding strategy-wise. The strategies that worked so well in a bull market suddenly become ineffective to ward off losses. The reason is not that these strategies are suddenly not working. The important point is that the strategies were never effective from the onset, only that the raging bull blinded people to the truth. A bear market brings reality and sanity. Only the best of strategies work in both bear markets and bull markets i.e all the time as they should.
And in this bear market, Elliott Waves are even more better suited. Beacause in a bear market, the fear in people creates perfect Elliott Wave patterns that are even more clearly perceived.
This bear market will teach the discerning the very best strategies to forecast a market, any market, any time. The bear in the NSE casino has been with us for the past 5 years. (it did not start now with Corona). We have just about to bottom out. Cash is king for the so called "value investor". The problem with wazuans is that they want to play pata potea at the casino with kshs. 20000 and expect to make a kill or in worst case get burnt a little. My strategy is go hard or go home. e.g., why should i buy only 10,000 shares of Fahari i-reit at a kshs. 60000 bob yet i can purchase a 100,000 units by wekelea-ing 600 geez on this counter. A 60 cents(10%) rise is a whooping 60,000 bob. I can make 60 gees every other week/day at the NSE casino by merely betting kshs. 600,000. e.g., I buy 100000 shares of Fahari ireit today in the morning at 6 bob a share. I sell the same shares leo leo for ksh.6.60. That is a staggering 60 ngwanyes(before tax/commisions). Next week i wekelea my 650,000 bob and buy the NSE share at 7.20 bob and sell at 8 bob by lunch hour. I repeat this every other day and i will bid my evil employer goodbye. You are a good dreamer If this was the case, Receptor would have traded his way from 600k to billions of shillings within a matter of months by scraping together his daily ngwanyes and compounding them through the above daily loss-free skilful trades into a croesus-like fortune in no time! Why has it not happened? Because it is a bag of smoke of course. In the final analysis, it all boils down to sheer plain old hard work and dogged persistence. Nothing more, nothing less!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2019 Posts: 119
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amorphous wrote:Receptor wrote:mnandii wrote:People are realizing that value investing does not work simply because the character of the market changed. Whereas in the past few years the major markets were in a strong bull trend, the turn to a bear market is finding people off-guard. Even the venerable Oracle of Omaha can not many any meaningful sense out of this.
The reason is that the bull market cushioned people with questionable investment strategies. In a major bull market almost any share price is likely to go up. So it is not rocket science to make money by buying just about anything.
In contrast, a bear market is more demanding strategy-wise. The strategies that worked so well in a bull market suddenly become ineffective to ward off losses. The reason is not that these strategies are suddenly not working. The important point is that the strategies were never effective from the onset, only that the raging bull blinded people to the truth. A bear market brings reality and sanity. Only the best of strategies work in both bear markets and bull markets i.e all the time as they should.
And in this bear market, Elliott Waves are even more better suited. Beacause in a bear market, the fear in people creates perfect Elliott Wave patterns that are even more clearly perceived.
This bear market will teach the discerning the very best strategies to forecast a market, any market, any time. The bear in the NSE casino has been with us for the past 5 years. (it did not start now with Corona). We have just about to bottom out. Cash is king for the so called "value investor". The problem with wazuans is that they want to play pata potea at the casino with kshs. 20000 and expect to make a kill or in worst case get burnt a little. My strategy is go hard or go home. e.g., why should i buy only 10,000 shares of Fahari i-reit at a kshs. 60000 bob yet i can purchase a 100,000 units by wekelea-ing 600 geez on this counter. A 60 cents(10%) rise is a whooping 60,000 bob. I can make 60 gees every other week/day at the NSE casino by merely betting kshs. 600,000. e.g., I buy 100000 shares of Fahari ireit today in the morning at 6 bob a share. I sell the same shares leo leo for ksh.6.60. That is a staggering 60 ngwanyes(before tax/commisions). Next week i wekelea my 650,000 bob and buy the NSE share at 7.20 bob and sell at 8 bob by lunch hour. I repeat this every other day and i will bid my evil employer goodbye. You are a good dreamer If this was the case, Receptor would have traded his way from 600k to billions of shillings within a matter of months by scraping together his daily ngwanyes and compounding them through the above daily loss-free skilful trades into a croesus-like fortune in no time! Why has it not happened? Because it is a bag of smoke of course. The secret in this pata potea business lies in cash. You got to have atleast a minimum of 1 million shillings(and a back-up source of income) to trade/play at the casino. if you rake-in a conservative 4(four) 10%'s in a year that is kshs.400000 before tax/commissions. Easier said than done.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/15/2019 Posts: 687 Location: planet earth
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Receptor wrote:
The secret in this pata potea business lies in cash. You got to have atleast a minimum of 1 million shillings(and a back-up source of income) to trade/play at the casino. if you rake-in a conservative 4(four) 10%'s in a year that is kshs.400000 before tax/commissions.
Easier said than done.
Asante . I too would love to have Megan Good as my second wife, but we all know about the certainty of wishes and horses In the final analysis, it all boils down to sheer plain old hard work and dogged persistence. Nothing more, nothing less!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2019 Posts: 119
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amorphous wrote:Receptor wrote:
The secret in this pata potea business lies in cash. You got to have atleast a minimum of 1 million shillings(and a back-up source of income) to trade/play at the casino. if you rake-in a conservative 4(four) 10%'s in a year that is kshs.400000 before tax/commissions.
Easier said than done.
Asante . I too would love to have Megan Good as my second wife, but we all know about the certainty of wishes and horses
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2018 Posts: 564 Location: Britain
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Receptor wrote:amorphous wrote:Receptor wrote:mnandii wrote:People are realizing that value investing does not work simply because the character of the market changed. Whereas in the past few years the major markets were in a strong bull trend, the turn to a bear market is finding people off-guard. Even the venerable Oracle of Omaha can not many any meaningful sense out of this.
The reason is that the bull market cushioned people with questionable investment strategies. In a major bull market almost any share price is likely to go up. So it is not rocket science to make money by buying just about anything.
In contrast, a bear market is more demanding strategy-wise. The strategies that worked so well in a bull market suddenly become ineffective to ward off losses. The reason is not that these strategies are suddenly not working. The important point is that the strategies were never effective from the onset, only that the raging bull blinded people to the truth. A bear market brings reality and sanity. Only the best of strategies work in both bear markets and bull markets i.e all the time as they should.
And in this bear market, Elliott Waves are even more better suited. Beacause in a bear market, the fear in people creates perfect Elliott Wave patterns that are even more clearly perceived.
This bear market will teach the discerning the very best strategies to forecast a market, any market, any time. The bear in the NSE casino has been with us for the past 5 years. (it did not start now with Corona). We have just about to bottom out. Cash is king for the so called "value investor". The problem with wazuans is that they want to play pata potea at the casino with kshs. 20000 and expect to make a kill or in worst case get burnt a little. My strategy is go hard or go home. e.g., why should i buy only 10,000 shares of Fahari i-reit at a kshs. 60000 bob yet i can purchase a 100,000 units by wekelea-ing 600 geez on this counter. A 60 cents(10%) rise is a whooping 60,000 bob. I can make 60 gees every other week/day at the NSE casino by merely betting kshs. 600,000. e.g., I buy 100000 shares of Fahari ireit today in the morning at 6 bob a share. I sell the same shares leo leo for ksh.6.60. That is a staggering 60 ngwanyes(before tax/commisions). Next week i wekelea my 650,000 bob and buy the NSE share at 7.20 bob and sell at 8 bob by lunch hour. I repeat this every other day and i will bid my evil employer goodbye. You are a good dreamer If this was the case, Receptor would have traded his way from 600k to billions of shillings within a matter of months by scraping together his daily ngwanyes and compounding them through the above daily loss-free skilful trades into a croesus-like fortune in no time! Why has it not happened? Because it is a bag of smoke of course. The secret in this pata potea business lies in cash. You got to have atleast a minimum of 1 million shillings(and a back-up source of income) to trade/play at the casino. if you rake-in a conservative 4(four) 10%'s in a year that is kshs.400000 before tax/commissions. Easier said than done. What sort of calculations is this?
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