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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
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Ericsson
#2181 Posted : Thursday, May 28, 2020 9:38:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 9.2 Actual 8.9
EQTY 7.8 Actual 7.0
COOP 5.2 Actual 5.1
I&M 3.6
NCBA 3.3 Actual 2.4
SCBK 3.1
ABSA 3.0 Actual 3.43*
DTB 2.8 Actual 2.9
STANB 1.9 Actual 2.1
HFCK -0.034


Equity Group Q1 2020 @ ksh.7bn
ABSA PBT before exceptional items ksh.3.43bn
After exceptional items ksh.2.87bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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FUNKY
#2182 Posted : Thursday, May 28, 2020 12:28:56 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
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obiero
#2183 Posted : Thursday, May 28, 2020 9:20:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 9.2 Actual 8.9
EQTY 7.8 Actual 7.0
COOP 5.2 Actual 5.1
I&M 3.6
NCBA 3.3 Actual 2.4
SCBK 3.1
ABSA 3.0 Actual 3.2
DTB 2.8 Actual 2.9
STANB 1.9 Actual 2.1
HFCK -0.034 Actual 0.007

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Ericsson
#2184 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2020 6:49:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 9.2 Actual 8.9
EQTY 7.8 Actual 7.0
COOP 5.2 Actual 5.1
I&M 3.6 Actual 2.4
NCBA 3.3 Actual 2.4
SCBK 3.1
ABSA 3.0 Actual 3.43*
DTB 2.8 Actual 2.9
STANB 1.9 Actual 2.1
HFCK -0.034 Actual 0.007


Equity Group Q1 2020 @ ksh.7bn
ABSA PBT before exceptional items ksh.3.43bn
After exceptional items ksh.2.87bn

Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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obiero
#2185 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2020 8:24:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 9.2 Actual 8.9
EQTY 7.8 Actual 7.0
COOP 5.2 Actual 5.1
I&M 3.6 Actual 2.4
NCBA 3.3 Actual 2.4
SCBK 3.1
ABSA 3.0 Actual 3.43*
DTB 2.8 Actual 2.9
STANB 1.9 Actual 2.1
HFCK -0.034 Actual 0.007


Equity Group Q1 2020 @ ksh.7bn
ABSA PBT before exceptional items ksh.3.43bn
After exceptional items ksh.2.87bn


Remain with the top 3. Thank me later

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Ericsson
#2186 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2020 9:04:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 9.2 Actual 8.9
EQTY 7.8 Actual 7.0
COOP 5.2 Actual 5.1
I&M 3.6 Actual 2.4
NCBA 3.3 Actual 2.4
SCBK 3.1 Actual 2.9
ABSA 3.0 Actual 3.43*
DTB 2.8 Actual 2.9
STANB 1.9 Actual 2.1
HFCK -0.034 Actual 0.007


Equity Group Q1 2020 @ ksh.7bn
ABSA PBT before exceptional items ksh.3.43bn
After exceptional items ksh.2.87bn



Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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lochaz-index
#2187 Posted : Tuesday, June 02, 2020 10:31:29 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 9.2 Actual 8.9
EQTY 7.8 Actual 7.0
COOP 5.2 Actual 5.1
I&M 3.6
NCBA 3.3 Actual 2.4
SCBK 3.1
ABSA 3.0 Actual 3.2
DTB 2.8 Actual 2.9
STANB 1.9 Actual 2.1
HFCK -0.034 Actual 0.007

Q1 numbers don't mean much at this point. Wide divergence on provisions even among tier I banks. I guess IFRS provisions on expected losses have largely been ignored. Cbk's window on restructuring loans offers a stay of execution for now...when does it expire and what is the likelihood of an extension?
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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obiero
#2188 Posted : Thursday, July 02, 2020 9:54:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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VituVingiSana
#2189 Posted : Thursday, July 02, 2020 11:34:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ericsson
#2190 Posted : Friday, July 03, 2020 12:11:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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obiero
#2191 Posted : Friday, July 03, 2020 5:30:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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VituVingiSana
#2192 Posted : Friday, July 03, 2020 7:27:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#2193 Posted : Friday, July 03, 2020 8:02:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.

Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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obiero
#2194 Posted : Sunday, July 05, 2020 12:34:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Kenya Airways
HY Total Income 44.1B
HY Total Operating Costs 54.5B
HY Loss before Income Tax [7.975b]

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Ericsson
#2195 Posted : Monday, July 06, 2020 7:31:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways
HY Total Income 44.1B
HY Total Operating Costs 54.5B
HY Loss before Income Tax [7.975b]

Double the figure for HY Loss before Income Tax
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#2196 Posted : Monday, July 06, 2020 7:48:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways
HY Total Income 44.1B
HY Total Operating Costs 54.5B
HY Loss before Income Tax [7.975b]

Double the figure for HY Loss before Income Tax
KQ needs to be taken outside and shot. Twice. In the Head. And then cut up in 4 quarters. Which should be shredded. And burnt.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ericsson
#2197 Posted : Wednesday, July 08, 2020 8:09:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.

Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book


Plus those paying interim dividends will retain the norm.
KCB may hike to 1.25
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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heri
#2198 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2020 12:40:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.

Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book


Plus those paying interim dividends will retain the norm.
KCB may hike to 1.25


Sounds too good to be true. Higher dividends in view of coming NPLs
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Horton
#2199 Posted : Sunday, August 09, 2020 10:37:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.

Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book


Plus those paying interim dividends will retain the norm.
KCB may hike to 1.25


If these estimates are as accurate as they usually are, we are looking at KCB/EQTY back to 40-45 levels
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Angelica _ann
#2200 Posted : Sunday, August 09, 2020 2:03:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.

Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book


Plus those paying interim dividends will retain the norm.
KCB may hike to 1.25


If these estimates are as accurate as they usually are, we are looking at KCB/EQTY back to 40-45 levels


Based on falling prices in other sectors, market will be unmoved. Expect lower prices.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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