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Value Investing doesn't work anymore
S.Mutaga III
#11 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2020 3:19:20 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
There are several threads on this forum by people like Stocksmaster proving that value investing works. Most of us guys just don't know how to find value. That's the problem.

However, I think value investing is a lot harder in first world developed markets because there are too many hedge funds and professionals with billions of cash looking for value. That makes it a lot harder to find.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
S.Mutaga III
#12 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2020 3:21:55 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
amorphous wrote:
Wazua never fails to amuse.
Are you guys only discovering this today?
Were you not warned years back? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Have you not read the "first world markets shenanigans" thread?
How can value investing work when the rules of basic economics have long been thrown out of the window by the Fed?
The problem with most of you is that you are very sharp academic types, meaning serious obeyers of rules and orders you are fed through books and newspapers like the WSJ.That is how you got beautifulbut useless A's from primo to Masters level. When it comes to practical living, thinking and acting you are fishes way out of water.
Comical, reallyLaughing out loudly

There are several threads on this forum by people like Stocksmaster proving that value investing works. Most of us guys just don't know how to find value. That's the problem.

However, I think value investing is a lot harder in first world developed markets because there are too many hedge funds and professionals with billions of cash looking for value. That makes it a lot harder to find.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2020 7:46:24 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
amorphous wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
amorphous wrote:
Wazua never fails to amuse.
Are you guys only discovering this today?
Were you not warned years back? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Have you not read the "first world markets shenanigans" thread?
How can value investing work when the rules of basic economics have long been thrown out of the window by the Fed?
The problem with most of you is that you are very sharp academic types, meaning serious obeyers of rules and orders you are fed through books and newspapers like the WSJ.That is how you got beautifulbut useless A's from primo to Masters level. When it comes to practical living, thinking and acting you are fishes way out of water.
Comical, reallyLaughing out loudly

Kenya is not the USA.


This is an amazing statement.
What you are saying is that the Fed does not matter even though the dollar is the world's reserve currency and our very own CBK maintains a defacto peg to it Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Simply incredible that you think that what the Fed does has zero impact on Kenya Laughing out loudly
You are trying too hard to make a point that's not there.
"first world markets shenanigans" is exactly that. FIRST WORLD. Sisi ni 3rd world.

Does the USD affect Kenya? Yes. We export/import in USD but the LOCAL basic trade is mostly in KES. Sure many of our inputs may be priced in USD but that's just a common medium.

Is there an attempted peg to the USD by CBK? I think it's probably more of a basket including the Euro. Look at the rapid move from 100 to 108.

Are we (most of us) buying Kenyan (or regional) firms? Yes. What GoK is issuing (via) CBK is what affects us.

"Simply incredible that you think that what the Fed does has zero impact on Kenya" WHO said that it has ZERO impact?
Kenya is not the USA.
Just as Singapore is not the UK.
Just as India is not China.
Different dynamics.
Kenyan banks get 11-12% of KES gilts. US banks get 0%-0.25% in USD.

The US Stockmarket has done very, very well from 2008-2020.
In the same time period the NSE has fared rather poorly. Exclude Safaricom and it gets worse.

As a VALUE investor in Kenya, why should I panic about what the Fed is doing to boost the US economy?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2020 7:48:38 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
amorphous wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
amorphous wrote:
Wazua never fails to amuse.
Are you guys only discovering this today?
Were you not warned years back? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Have you not read the "first world markets shenanigans" thread?
How can value investing work when the rules of basic economics have long been thrown out of the window by the Fed?
The problem with most of you is that you are very sharp academic types, meaning serious obeyers of rules and orders you are fed through books and newspapers like the WSJ.That is how you got beautifulbut useless A's from primo to Masters level. When it comes to practical living, thinking and acting you are fishes way out of water.
Comical, reallyLaughing out loudly

Kenya is not the USA.


This is an amazing statement.
What you are saying is that the Fed does not matter even though the dollar is the world's reserve currency and our very own CBK maintains a defacto peg to it Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Simply incredible that you think that what the Fed does has zero impact on Kenya Laughing out loudly


I checked again. On an atlas. Also compared the size of the economies.

It confirms to me that Kenya is not the USA.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
deadpoet
#15 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2020 8:53:37 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/27/2006
Posts: 505
I think you guys are getting a bit sidetracked... the question is whether value investing is still a legit strategy. Look at companies like Fahari or Centum... the NSE right now doesn't value these firms at all on a book-value basis.. So, how many years would it take for the market to reflect these companies' value? Versus how much money you can take applying capital elsewhere? We can't all wait 30 years to make back money from an investment. It can happen anywhere, Kenya, USA, or Hong Kong.
amorphous
#16 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2020 9:52:41 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/15/2019
Posts: 687
Location: planet earth
VituVingiSana wrote:
amorphous wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
amorphous wrote:
Wazua never fails to amuse.
Are you guys only discovering this today?
Were you not warned years back? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Have you not read the "first world markets shenanigans" thread?
How can value investing work when the rules of basic economics have long been thrown out of the window by the Fed?
The problem with most of you is that you are very sharp academic types, meaning serious obeyers of rules and orders you are fed through books and newspapers like the WSJ.That is how you got beautifulbut useless A's from primo to Masters level. When it comes to practical living, thinking and acting you are fishes way out of water.
Comical, reallyLaughing out loudly

Kenya is not the USA.


This is an amazing statement.
What you are saying is that the Fed does not matter even though the dollar is the world's reserve currency and our very own CBK maintains a defacto peg to it Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Simply incredible that you think that what the Fed does has zero impact on Kenya Laughing out loudly
You are trying too hard to make a point that's not there.
"first world markets shenanigans" is exactly that. FIRST WORLD. Sisi ni 3rd world.

Does the USD affect Kenya? Yes. We export/import in USD but the LOCAL basic trade is mostly in KES. Sure many of our inputs may be priced in USD but that's just a common medium.

Is there an attempted peg to the USD by CBK? I think it's probably more of a basket including the Euro. Look at the rapid move from 100 to 108.

Are we (most of us) buying Kenyan (or regional) firms? Yes. What GoK is issuing (via) CBK is what affects us.

"Simply incredible that you think that what the Fed does has zero impact on Kenya" WHO said that it has ZERO impact?
Kenya is not the USA.
Just as Singapore is not the UK.
Just as India is not China.
Different dynamics.
Kenyan banks get 11-12% of KES gilts. US banks get 0%-0.25% in USD.

The US Stockmarket has done very, very well from 2008-2020.
In the same time period the NSE has fared rather poorly. Exclude Safaricom and it gets worse.

As a VALUE investor in Kenya, why should I panic about what the Fed is doing to boost the US economy?


SMH in amazement.
So if Kenya is not the USA and under different dynamics, why are you using US-gleaned investment strategies (value investing) in an alien context (Kenya)? Laughing out loudly

In the final analysis, it all boils down to sheer plain old hard work and dogged persistence. Nothing more, nothing less!!
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2020 10:57:51 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
amorphous wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
amorphous wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
amorphous wrote:
Wazua never fails to amuse.
Are you guys only discovering this today?
Were you not warned years back? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Have you not read the "first world markets shenanigans" thread?
How can value investing work when the rules of basic economics have long been thrown out of the window by the Fed?
The problem with most of you is that you are very sharp academic types, meaning serious obeyers of rules and orders you are fed through books and newspapers like the WSJ.That is how you got beautifulbut useless A's from primo to Masters level. When it comes to practical living, thinking and acting you are fishes way out of water.
Comical, reallyLaughing out loudly

Kenya is not the USA.


This is an amazing statement.
What you are saying is that the Fed does not matter even though the dollar is the world's reserve currency and our very own CBK maintains a defacto peg to it Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Simply incredible that you think that what the Fed does has zero impact on Kenya Laughing out loudly
You are trying too hard to make a point that's not there.
"first world markets shenanigans" is exactly that. FIRST WORLD. Sisi ni 3rd world.

Does the USD affect Kenya? Yes. We export/import in USD but the LOCAL basic trade is mostly in KES. Sure many of our inputs may be priced in USD but that's just a common medium.

Is there an attempted peg to the USD by CBK? I think it's probably more of a basket including the Euro. Look at the rapid move from 100 to 108.

Are we (most of us) buying Kenyan (or regional) firms? Yes. What GoK is issuing (via) CBK is what affects us.

"Simply incredible that you think that what the Fed does has zero impact on Kenya" WHO said that it has ZERO impact?
Kenya is not the USA.
Just as Singapore is not the UK.
Just as India is not China.
Different dynamics.
Kenyan banks get 11-12% of KES gilts. US banks get 0%-0.25% in USD.

The US Stockmarket has done very, very well from 2008-2020.
In the same time period the NSE has fared rather poorly. Exclude Safaricom and it gets worse.

As a VALUE investor in Kenya, why should I panic about what the Fed is doing to boost the US economy?


SMH in amazement.
So if Kenya is not the USA and under different dynamics, why are you using US-gleaned investment strategies (value investing) in an alien context (Kenya)? Laughing out loudly

Value investing isn't a "US" strategy. It has been around for as long as investing has.

My grandfather probably never heard of the term "value investing" but he knew value when investing.

Stop trying too hard to get people to sign onto programs/training that offers lessons in "Technical Analysis" at a fee. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
amorphous
#18 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2020 11:02:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/15/2019
Posts: 687
Location: planet earth
VituVingiSana wrote:

Value investing isn't a "US" strategy. It has been around for as long as investing has.

My grandfather probably never heard of the term "value investing" but he knew value when investing.

Stop trying too hard to get people to sign onto programs/training that offers lessons in "Technical Analysis" at a fee. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Do you even understand what value investing as described in the OP's article is? Laughing out loudly
In the final analysis, it all boils down to sheer plain old hard work and dogged persistence. Nothing more, nothing less!!
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2020 11:03:03 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
deadpoet wrote:
I think you guys are getting a bit sidetracked... the question is whether value investing is still a legit strategy. Look at companies like Fahari or Centum... the NSE right now doesn't value these firms at all on a book-value basis.. So, how many years would it take for the market to reflect these companies' value? Versus how much money you can take applying capital elsewhere? We can't all wait 30 years to make back money from an investment. It can happen anywhere, Kenya, USA, or Hong Kong.

Buffett for many years has used "Intrinsic Value" as the measure vs BV.
See's Candies has little BV but a huge "Intrinsic Value" from branding/trust/locations, etc.

Apple, Microsoft, etc has a high P/B given their "assets" aren't easily valued.

I look at ROI on my entry price but I do consider some on a BV basis e.g. Kenya Re given the current assets on hand.

Fahari's "assets" may be over-valued by them and their advisors in this market. I believe the INTRINSIC VALUE is lower than their BV.

Centum's BV is based off valuations so it may make sense BUT I would further discount their real estate holdings based on the current market conditions.

No 2 firms are the same but one can make comparisons within sectors.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2020 11:08:12 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
amorphous wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:

Value investing isn't a "US" strategy. It has been around for as long as investing has.

My grandfather probably never heard of the term "value investing" but he knew value when investing.

Stop trying too hard to get people to sign onto programs/training that offers lessons in "Technical Analysis" at a fee. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Do you even understand what value investing as described in the OP's article is? Laughing out loudly
Don't worry about it. If you can do better than us (Value Investors) then good for you Applause Applause Applause

Lakini, tossing about what the Fed is doing doesn't mean as much to those of us investing on the NSE.

Perhaps for those who invest in the USA's markets, you could start a different thread.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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