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Equity Bank 2020
the deal
#1 Posted : Friday, April 03, 2020 10:24:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,525
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Members loan book per various sources is 60% SME's...

With covid19 cases increasing on a daily basis despite limited testing...it's inevitable that Kenya will move from a curfew to a complete lockdown...


With a lockdown many of these SME's will not trade thus no cash flow...how will they service they're loans?

Well members has options...

1. Reclassify loans
2. Payment holidays


What else? What do you think? Is a prolonged locked down already priced in?
littledove
#2 Posted : Wednesday, April 29, 2020 12:01:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 775
Location: sky
equity bank above 37 with supply drying, covid threat is slowly dying, we are likely to see kcb and equity above 40s, safaricom already at 28-29, the range before covid
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
Ericsson
#3 Posted : Wednesday, April 29, 2020 12:07:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,402
Location: NAIROBI
littledove wrote:
equity bank above 37 with supply drying, covid threat is slowly dying, we are likely to see kcb and equity above 40s, safaricom already at 28-29, the range before covid


Not yet there is still one more drop.
Q2 and HY for banks will be disastrous
heri
#4 Posted : Wednesday, April 29, 2020 1:34:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 744
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
littledove wrote:
equity bank above 37 with supply drying, covid threat is slowly dying, we are likely to see kcb and equity above 40s, safaricom already at 28-29, the range before covid


Not yet there is still one more drop.
Q2 and HY for banks will be disastrous


Can someone help me understand. what i understand is that banks will not have to classify loans that were performing pre COVID as non performing. Though in the long run, this will not help since the loans will probably be bad with some businesses even closing or severely down scaling

i also understand that banks may not be lending to businesses at this time but could they be lending to GOK?

Just like during the capping period, could the impact on banks not be that severe?
Ericsson
#5 Posted : Wednesday, April 29, 2020 6:07:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,402
Location: NAIROBI
heri wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
littledove wrote:
equity bank above 37 with supply drying, covid threat is slowly dying, we are likely to see kcb and equity above 40s, safaricom already at 28-29, the range before covid


Not yet there is still one more drop.
Q2 and HY for banks will be disastrous


Can someone help me understand. what i understand is that banks will not have to classify loans that were performing pre COVID as non performing. Though in the long run, this will not help since the loans will probably be bad with some businesses even closing or severely down scaling

i also understand that banks may not be lending to businesses at this time but could they be lending to GOK?

Just like during the capping period, could the impact on banks not be that severe?


Interest income though will get a hit
watesh
#6 Posted : Wednesday, April 29, 2020 7:31:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 810
Location: Kenya
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
littledove wrote:
equity bank above 37 with supply drying, covid threat is slowly dying, we are likely to see kcb and equity above 40s, safaricom already at 28-29, the range before covid


Not yet there is still one more drop.
Q2 and HY for banks will be disastrous


Can someone help me understand. what i understand is that banks will not have to classify loans that were performing pre COVID as non performing. Though in the long run, this will not help since the loans will probably be bad with some businesses even closing or severely down scaling

i also understand that banks may not be lending to businesses at this time but could they be lending to GOK?

Just like during the capping period, could the impact on banks not be that severe?


Interest income though will get a hit

Very true ....if loans are not being paid, interest income cannot be earned. If loans are being denied interest income will not grow. In addition to that no bank to mpesa transaction income for a full quarter and less money circulating in the economy means the volumes have reduced which will impact some of the non funded income (card payments, salary processing fees, EFT/RTGS fees etc). The impact will definitely be there, the magnitude is hard to exactly pinpoint since ifrs 9 will be ignored for the time being.
Ericsson
#7 Posted : Wednesday, April 29, 2020 8:25:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,402
Location: NAIROBI
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
littledove wrote:
equity bank above 37 with supply drying, covid threat is slowly dying, we are likely to see kcb and equity above 40s, safaricom already at 28-29, the range before covid


Not yet there is still one more drop.
Q2 and HY for banks will be disastrous


Can someone help me understand. what i understand is that banks will not have to classify loans that were performing pre COVID as non performing. Though in the long run, this will not help since the loans will probably be bad with some businesses even closing or severely down scaling

i also understand that banks may not be lending to businesses at this time but could they be lending to GOK?

Just like during the capping period, could the impact on banks not be that severe?


Interest income though will get a hit

Very true ....if loans are not being paid, interest income cannot be earned. If loans are being denied interest income will not grow. In addition to that no bank to mpesa transaction income for a full quarter and less money circulating in the economy means the volumes have reduced which will impact some of the non funded income (card payments, salary processing fees, EFT/RTGS fees etc). The impact will definitely be there, the magnitude is hard to exactly pinpoint since ifrs 9 will be ignored for the time being.


USA and European banks and most of developed countries are starting to put money aside as a result of COVID-19 defaults
Ericsson
#8 Posted : Thursday, May 21, 2020 7:54:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,402
Location: NAIROBI
the deal wrote:
Members loan book per various sources is 60% SME's...

With covid19 cases increasing on a daily basis despite limited testing...it's inevitable that Kenya will move from a curfew to a complete lockdown...


With a lockdown many of these SME's will not trade thus no cash flow...how will they service they're loans?

Well members has options...

1. Reclassify loans
2. Payment holidays


What else? What do you think? Is a prolonged locked down already priced in?


Equity bank has restructured loans worth ksh.92bn
Ericsson
#9 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 4:53:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,402
Location: NAIROBI
https://www.businessdail...63718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”
Angelica _ann
#10 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 5:23:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,486
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Equity-halts-Sh9-billion-dividend-on-Corona-fears/539546-5563718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”



This is fraud smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Queen
#11 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 5:40:48 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/21/2018
Posts: 284
Location: Britain
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Equity-halts-Sh9-billion-dividend-on-Corona-fears/539546-5563718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”



This is fraud smile


Totally unprecedented since it listed on NSE. Let us now wait and see the effect of this announcement on the share price going forward. By 2022, the share price shall be quite interesting. Cash is king.
watesh
#12 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 7:02:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 810
Location: Kenya
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Equity-halts-Sh9-billion-dividend-on-Corona-fears/539546-5563718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”

WOW! They could have at least given out a bonus issue
kmucheke
#13 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 10:46:46 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/16/2019
Posts: 11
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Equity-halts-Sh9-billion-dividend-on-Corona-fears/539546-5563718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”

WOW! They could have at least given out a bonus issue


Ditto
littledove
#14 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:34:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 775
Location: sky
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Equity-halts-Sh9-billion-dividend-on-Corona-fears/539546-5563718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”



This is fraud smile

possibly true, somebody want in at a low price, the heavy local demand for the last one month which pushed price to 42 shows somebody desperately purchasing below 40
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#15 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:37:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,091
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Some good news will be announced before long to counter the bad news.....and just like that, 40 will print again.
By the way, member always announces something good a day or two after dividend book closure. KCB has also perfected this game.
Markets
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#16 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:41:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,091
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
littledove wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Equity-halts-Sh9-billion-dividend-on-Corona-fears/539546-5563718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”



This is fraud smile

possibly true, somebody want in at a low price, the heavy local demand for the last one month which pushed price to 42 shows somebody desperately purchasing below 40

That was a fund buying.
They will seize this golden opportunity to load up some more.
Markets
obiero
#17 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:24:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,698
Location: nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
littledove wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Equity-halts-Sh9-billion-dividend-on-Corona-fears/539546-5563718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”



This is fraud smile

possibly true, somebody want in at a low price, the heavy local demand for the last one month which pushed price to 42 shows somebody desperately purchasing below 40

That was a fund buying.
They will seize this golden opportunity to load up some more.

Nothing like a golden opportunity. Failure to pay a dividend isn't a positive sign
www.winda.co.ke
Wakanyugi
#18 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:18:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,614
obiero wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
littledove wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Equity-halts-Sh9-billion-dividend-on-Corona-fears/539546-5563718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”



This is fraud smile

possibly true, somebody want in at a low price, the heavy local demand for the last one month which pushed price to 42 shows somebody desperately purchasing below 40

That was a fund buying.
They will seize this golden opportunity to load up some more.

Nothing like a golden opportunity. Failure to pay a dividend isn't a positive sign



Et tu Obiero?

Surely, how is preserving cash in order to survive hard, uncertain, times a negative sign?

"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
obiero
#19 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:31:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,698
Location: nairobi
Wakanyugi wrote:
obiero wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
littledove wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Equity-halts-Sh9-billion-dividend-on-Corona-fears/539546-5563718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”



This is fraud smile

possibly true, somebody want in at a low price, the heavy local demand for the last one month which pushed price to 42 shows somebody desperately purchasing below 40

That was a fund buying.
They will seize this golden opportunity to load up some more.

Nothing like a golden opportunity. Failure to pay a dividend isn't a positive sign



Et tu Obiero?

Surely, how is preserving cash in order to survive hard, uncertain, times a negative sign?


Shows lack of depth in reserves. How come its peers are paying?
www.winda.co.ke
Angelica _ann
#20 Posted : Tuesday, May 26, 2020 5:26:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,486
obiero wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
obiero wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
littledove wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Equity-halts-Sh9-billion-dividend-on-Corona-fears/539546-5563718-qsnb18/index.html

Equity Group has cancelled its proposed dividend payout of Sh2.50 per share or a total of Sh9.4 billion, citing the need to conserve cash in the wake of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

“Accordingly, the board has passed a resolution withdrawing the proposed dividend recommendation and instead will be recommending to the shareholders that no dividend is paid for the financial year ended 31st December, 2019,” Equity said in a statement. “Therefore, the shareholders of the company and other investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the company’s ordinary shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange.”



This is fraud smile

possibly true, somebody want in at a low price, the heavy local demand for the last one month which pushed price to 42 shows somebody desperately purchasing below 40

That was a fund buying.
They will seize this golden opportunity to load up some more.

Nothing like a golden opportunity. Failure to pay a dividend isn't a positive sign



Et tu Obiero?

Surely, how is preserving cash in order to survive hard, uncertain, times a negative sign?


Shows lack of depth in reserves. How come its peers are paying?


They should have paid reduced dividend amount, not nothing/nil - kwanza after initially declaring a good juicy amount of Kshs. 2.5 bob.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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