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William Ruto is NOT going to be President in 2022
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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For those who love numbers, take your time and download the IEBC 2017 election numbers.
Put them on an excel sheet and pay close attention to two critical indicators.
1. Voter turnout per county.
2. Support in strongholds for both Rao and Uhuru.
Let me illustrate.
Uhuru averaged 92% turnout and 99% support in the 4 central counties excluding kiambu. In the north rift, the turnout dropped significantly 75-85)%.
Baba won mombasa, kilifi and kwale comfortably. But turnout averaged 65%, and he took between 70-80%. Siaya, homabay and kisumu voted baba 99% but again turnout was between 80-90.
In Meru, turnout was below 70% in the first round and 50% during the repeat election. Uhuru lost 200K votes in Meru during first round.
In the uasin gishu county, turnout averaged 50% in the repeat election in October
Out of the 5.5M gema votes that uhuru got in 2017, feel free to estimate how many ruto will lose to the two demons above. Voter turnout and a minority that will vote for someone else.
My prediction, 65% turnout and 70-80% support.
In absolute numbers, 3M votes.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/10/2015 Posts: 961 Location: Kenya
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wukan wrote:murchr wrote:The 2022 battle is clear, its hustler nation vs dynasties. One thing is clear though, Uhuru will not get that constitutional amendment. The gods are against it and they've sent Covid19 to kill that...now once the gods are against you, do you stand a chance? Truth is Uhuru is not smart and its very obvious to everyone. Team hustler has already been dismantled. Waititu and Sonko have shown in leadership, giving power to hustlers is dangerous. Mido class has learnt its lesson not to align with riff raff again. The narrative against the hustler nation has been written. They are a corrupt mafia like cartel using dubious means to acquire wealth and power. They are not the answer to Kenya's problems by any stretch of imagination. Uhuru and his dynasties have also shown contempt for mido class and its values: too much taxation, destroying stock market, promoting tenderpreneurs while killing genuine SMEs, limiting access to capital, allowing municipal services and urban planning to go to the dogs and finally basically telling the mido class during covid shutdown you are on your own. Mido class will revisit. 2022 battle will be alignment between mido class and the dynasties to run out hustler nation riff raff out of town and then battle royale between mido class and the dynasties from 2030 onward. Mido class will swell in numbers in the coming decades as income rise as avg number of children per family falls to 3 and below. The aspiring poor will be inclined to align with the mido class like US democrats. Hitler was also a hustler, the "son of a nobody" who took on dynasties in germany and beyond, and we all know how it all ended. Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2019 Posts: 119
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VituVingiSana wrote:Receptor wrote:Wakanyugi wrote:FRM2011 wrote:Poor Wsr. Why did he surround himself with dumb sycophants ?
How do you start a fight with the boss 30 months before election day ? Its only taken 3 months for the boss to hit back hard. If Uhuru goes bare knuckles, it will be extremely painful for the DP.
The kanu defectors jumped ship 3 months to election day in 2002. Moi had no leverage to fight back then.
27 months to go, NIS knows where all your (corruptly earned) money is hidden, all your corrupt buddies, and you still go to war.
Let me grab my popcorns. We are just about to witness political and financial suicide in slow motion. Ruto is suffering the same problem of 'conviction by association' that Raila often does. He has tried to be very diplomatic with Uhuru - calling him my Mdosi, KYM etc - but the combative idiots around him can't keep their mouths shut. And they have a perverse incentive to do as being seen to fight Uhuru builds their base popularity back home, fairly guaranteeing them reelection. The person whose calculus I don't get is Uhuru. He has a legacy to protect, yes. But that legacy has a lot to do with securing the Kenyatta Family Economic hegemony after he has relinquished the reins of power. Pissing off people who have a chance of ascending to power after you, some known to be quite vindictive, does not seem like a smart thing to do. A hostile Ruto or Raila Presidency can do serious damage to the Kenyatta Family empire. Man Gidi might be a safer pair of hands, which could explain the rapprochement with Kanu. But he is not sell-able to the masses. In any case how do you get Kenyans to swallow the pill of dynastic self perpetuation? This is the most laughable statement. I forgive your ignorance my brother for you don't understand how capital works and probably you have not visited a single plantation or a ranch in Kenya.You probably sit in a congested air-conditioned open office in a skyscrapper in Nairobi slaving daily 8AM-5PM for someone else. Hiyo shamba ya Ruiru isi kusumbue sana my friend. It is theirs and no one can tunya them. Hapo hapo ruiru there are other landlords like rendevous(tatu city) and the Gatabaki's.There is also a coffee plantation in the same neighbourhood owned by an obscure company known as EAAGADS with all manner of shareholders including modest retired teachers from Kisii, Migori, Taita Taveta as well as here in Wazua. No one can dare play with CAPITAL in a capitalist system. First and foremost, The Kenyattas are not only wealthy but are also very powerful with or without one of them being being in statehouse. They also have very powerful buddies in the USA,Buckingham palace and other jurisdictions. Friendships forged over 70 years ago and cemented by marriages,business partnerships and other interests. Baba himself is one of the longtime family friends who is also fairly wealthy,powerful and influential. Secondly, it is not only the Kenyattas that are super rich in Kenya. We also have other Kenyans wahidis,wazungus and lately Chinese with serious capital invested in Kenya. We have people with over 50000 acres of consolidated prime land in Kenya which not only has cattle,goats and sheep but also herds of elephants, buffaloes, giraffes, zebra, hyenas, lions,mongooses etc. as well as indegenious forest hapana hiyo mtoto mibao/mefao(eucalyptus) forests wazuans are fond of. We have people in Kenya with over 10000 acres solid under tea alone.Others have over 20000 acres(consolidated) all under the most underrated cashcrop known as sisal. They are not called Kenyatta or Moi but they exist humuhumu.Some Wazuans even have shares in this plantations earning juicy dividends yoy. Touch Kenyatta and the next thing you know @vvs et al will be lamenting in the blue section about government interference with biashara and their holdings no matter how small.Hapana cheza na capital i emphasize. All this capital is intertwined. You try touch one and the next thing you know is sanctions from USA or a phone call from Buckingham palace and a lot of kelele in the blue section. I have said it before and i will say it again. By the year 1935, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta had attended three universities huko majuu notably University College London, Communist University of the Toilers of the East, and London School of Economics. Most of Wazuan ancestors in the 1930's including mine were running helter sketler semi-nude in the plains of Laare and elsewhere totally content with their hunter-gatherer livelihoods. Old Jomo and others had already been exposed not only to Western mannerisms but also to complex concepts as capitalism and communism and accumulation of wealth. You cannot fault Jomo for being smart and acquiring capital for his descendants. By 1922 Jomo was working for the now dysfunctional Nairobi water and sewage company earning a tidy sum of kshs. 250 per month. 20 acres of land in Karen in 1920 was going for 20 bob. My grandfather then was pre-occupied with adding another wife and siring more children and evading/resisting thingira tax imposed by mubeberu. I don't blame my grandpa. He was just in the wrong place at the right time and had not gone to school. When Mzee Moi(RIP) left office, the media said Narc(of Kibaki and Raila) will repossess all wealth from Moi and his buddies like Biwott, Saitoti, Merali etc. Mzee Kibaki being the pragmatic fellow he is, offered amnesty for the wealth that was out-rightly plundered from treasury but not for "clean" established businesses employing Kenyans and paying billions in tax. Lastly, the oath of Presidency in Kenya has a part where the incoming president swears to protect Kenyans and their wealth. The police and the judiciary are very effective when it comes to protecting capital held by Kenyans and others. The Kenyattas are Kenyans and not Ugandans
.(Tafakari) Refs: 1. Jomo Kenyatta. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jomo_Kenyatta  @Receptor, my shares in Tea Plantations are legit. Bought on the NSE from savings not corruption. Not grabbed. hehehehe....remember the neophyte governor of Nandi toying with capital the other day in Nandi by uprooting tea in a privately owned farm? What about Waititu and wa-iria and their lust for Del Monte land? The mainstream media wrote pages upon pages on pineapple farming in Kenya in retaliation. I believe that you are a honest peace-loving Kenyan who is trying to make the Kenyan dream. I was just trying to illustrate why it would be foolish and impossible for DP Ruto(or any other person) to attack capital in the name of revenge/neutering the Kenyattas and by extension all Kenyan capitalist like you and myself. It is a complex web that directly affects even the hustlers themselves who are also aspiring to make it rich and powerful.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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It is 'we' the people  who will give William his 10 years; a true hustler, son of a peasant and a man of God. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/3/2007 Posts: 1,634
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Angelica _ann wrote:It is 'we' the people who will give William his 10 years; a true hustler, son of a peasant and a man of God. You make a good point. 70% of the voters are youth, they have no emotional connection to the Royal Families of Kenyatta, Odinga and Moi. As long as Ruto appeals to them, he will be the man to beat. Of course it helps that he is a hustler with money, and the best campaigner Kenya has today, hands down. The only way they will stop him is to make sure he does not run. "The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2018 Posts: 564 Location: Britain
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Wakanyugi wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:It is 'we' the people who will give William his 10 years; a true hustler, son of a peasant and a man of God. You make a good point. 70% of the voters are youth, they have no emotional connection to the Royal Families of Kenyatta, Odinga and Moi. As long as Ruto appeals to them, he will be the man to beat. Of course it helps that he is a hustler with money, and the best campaigner Kenya has today, hands down. The only way they will stop him is to make sure he does not run. Can't believe you have fallen for that. It's good to identify sarcasm, moreso when it hits you on the face.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Queen wrote:Wakanyugi wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:It is 'we' the people who will give William his 10 years; a true hustler, son of a peasant and a man of God. You make a good point. 70% of the voters are youth, they have no emotional connection to the Royal Families of Kenyatta, Odinga and Moi. As long as Ruto appeals to them, he will be the man to beat. Of course it helps that he is a hustler with money, and the best campaigner Kenya has today, hands down. The only way they will stop him is to make sure he does not run. Can't believe you have fallen for that. It's good to identify sarcasm, moreso when it hits you on the face. That's the reality on the ground "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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Quote:The only way they will stop him is to make sure he does not run. Me thinks ARM(Anti Ruto Movement) will go for this strategy Otherwise it will be one heated election
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/1/2008 Posts: 1,098
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Lolest! wrote:Quote:The only way they will stop him is to make sure he does not run. Me thinks ARM(Anti Ruto Movement) will go for this strategy Otherwise it will be one heated election @Lolest, in the strategy you are alluding and to diffuse the heat, is the Dynasty also thinking of "taking him to Ngong" and herders sent to "discover"... Hope it's not anything in that line 
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/29/2008 Posts: 1,566
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Lolest! wrote:Quote:The only way they will stop him is to make sure he does not run. Me thinks ARM(Anti Ruto Movement) will go for this strategy Otherwise it will be one heated election That a possibility but not too probable. If precedence is anything to go by, the bar for blocking one on account of Chapter six of the Constitution - Integrity issues - seems to high. To expect that there will be a series of judgments delivered between now and 2022 to culminate in blocking him is to expect too much. Interestingly, what might actually keep him out of the ballot is what will keep me out too, standing little chance. However, I would want him to stay in contention so as to spur Uhuru and Raila to settle on a compromise candidate sure to wallop him at the ballot. A Candidate like Matiang’i. Isuni yilu yi maa me muyo - ni Mbisuu
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2018 Posts: 564 Location: Britain
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Ngalaka wrote:Lolest! wrote:Quote:The only way they will stop him is to make sure he does not run. Me thinks ARM(Anti Ruto Movement) will go for this strategy Otherwise it will be one heated election That a possibility but not too probable. If precedence is anything to go by, the bar for blocking one on account of Chapter six of the Constitution - Integrity issues - seems to high. To expect that there will be a series of judgments delivered between now and 2022 to culminate in blocking him is to expect too much. Interestingly, what might actually keep him out of the ballot is what will keep me out too, standing little chance. However, I would want him to stay in contention so as to spur Uhuru and Raila to settle on a compromise candidate sure to wallop him at the ballot. A Candidate like Matiang’i. If he doesn't obey court orders when he is a mere CS, what happens when he becomes the country's CEO?
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2015 Posts: 467 Location: Nairobi
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Queen wrote:Ngalaka wrote:Lolest! wrote:Quote:The only way they will stop him is to make sure he does not run. Me thinks ARM(Anti Ruto Movement) will go for this strategy Otherwise it will be one heated election That a possibility but not too probable. If precedence is anything to go by, the bar for blocking one on account of Chapter six of the Constitution - Integrity issues - seems to high. To expect that there will be a series of judgments delivered between now and 2022 to culminate in blocking him is to expect too much. Interestingly, what might actually keep him out of the ballot is what will keep me out too, standing little chance. However, I would want him to stay in contention so as to spur Uhuru and Raila to settle on a compromise candidate sure to wallop him at the ballot. A Candidate like Matiang’i. If he doesn't obey court orders when he is a mere CS, what happens when he becomes the country's CEO? An Angola situation where the compromise candidate gets in and betrays the sponsors [uhuru,Raila, et all ] will be perfect
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/29/2011 Posts: 2,242
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The whole establishment has now been galvanized to stop Ruto at all costs. Kwani how powerful is this WSR that UMK,RAO, etc, etc have ganged together? "Things that matter most must never be at the mercy of things that matter least." Goethe
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/18/2008 Posts: 3,434 Location: Kerugoya
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Gathige wrote:The whole establishment has now been galvanized to stop Ruto at all costs. Kwani how powerful is this WSR that UMK,RAO, etc, etc have ganged together? Ahh. Finally. Someone asks the six million dollar question. How powerful? Indeed.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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Ngalaka wrote:Lolest! wrote:Quote:The only way they will stop him is to make sure he does not run. Me thinks ARM(Anti Ruto Movement) will go for this strategy Otherwise it will be one heated election That a possibility but not too probable. If precedence is anything to go by, the bar for blocking one on account of Chapter six of the Constitution - Integrity issues - seems to high. To expect that there will be a series of judgments delivered between now and 2022 to culminate in blocking him is to expect too much. Interestingly, what might actually keep him out of the ballot is what will keep me out too, standing little chance. However, I would want him to stay in contention so as to spur Uhuru and Raila to settle on a compromise candidate sure to wallop him at the ballot. A Candidate like Matiang’i. I get what you're saying but Uhuru is very much like his political father, Moi. I see all arms of government soon singing his song as Moi used to tell leaders his time. I've seen Ndii is facing tax issues in court Kila mtu atatii
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/10/2015 Posts: 961 Location: Kenya
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Wananchi want dynasties. Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/10/2015 Posts: 961 Location: Kenya
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 Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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sqft wrote:Wananchi want dynasties.
This video is an old clip embedded in a 'fresh' tweet, anyway doesn't matter. How many general elections have this guy with his odomodomo followers of Raila aka Baba lost so far; 1997, 2007, 2013, 2017 (twice). You can also add when Kijana beat him to clinch Ford Kenya Chair. We will still beat him any day, any time!!!!!! The guy in the clip with his folks are just talk, talk talk, with no IDs, no Huduma Number, not registered as voters, the registered - poor voter turn out etc. Bring it on. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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Allow me to interrupt the almost "Arsenal vs Man U" arguments going on here.
One of the great mysteries of democracy is why it tends to spark such a strong emotional reaction in most people leading to the loss of reason. So for example the politicians here in Kenya have somehow managed to exclude everyone else from leadership such that leadership here now revolves around a small group of men and women whose number is less than 10 or to be generous 20. This very small number of people basically make all the decisions that 50 million Kenyans have to deal with. And the result is that they are in an endless game of thrones like situation and we all get so sucked in emotionally into it that we can't pause and think about "Why are we even doing this?"
So then it completely becomes a game where all must choose a team to support - not very different from English PL teams. Hence the Arsenal vs Man U analogy.
And the whole time, the elephant in the room which is ensuring the prosperity of Kenyan citizens is completely ignored. More and more of the world seems to be heading in that same direction - the US with Trump is a perfect example of this phenomenon.
Even the most sophisticated and educated of us are unable to resist the pull of identity based politics.
It doesn't matter who will eventually win in 2022, but it's most likely that we will still be left with a low performing country where citizens continue to suffer the effects of poor governance. But half of us will be happy that our team "won" while the other half will be waiting for a round 2.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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 "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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William Ruto is NOT going to be President in 2022
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