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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote: OIL. XTIUSD: Expecting Oil to rise in wave C of (4) to about 32.30 or 36 to test the gap before falling off to levels below 18.00. The cut in global crude oil output notwithstanding. So would you take a bet and sell me oil at a pre-determined future at $22 ($4 profit for you if it gets to $18)? I don't know how the mechanism would work but skin in the game. I do trade leveraged oil (XTIUSD) i.e West Texas Intermediate. The leverage gives me a better opportunity to score big (AND also the possibility to lose big) as should be. The bet  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote:How to Protect Yourself and Your Family From DeflationWhat You Need to Know NowQuote:The media has been talking about deflation. The word is finding itself inserted into articles of many kinds. And with good reason: Deflation is a concern with any financial contraction, including the one we've been witnessing recently -- especially when there are record levels of debt in the system as there are now.
It's crucial to understand what deflation truly is and is not. In fact, most people think that deflation equals falling prices. Deflation INCLUDES falling prices. But that's not its most important feature. Its most important feature is that the supply of money and credit disappears. Because of that, most people are devastated, financially, when it occurs.
The good news is that you can prepare for deflation. If you do so, you can actually turn its most devastating impacts on their heads -- so they HELP you rather than HURT you.
To begin our report, let's return to our definition: Deflation is the contraction in the supply of money and credit. This occurs because businesses and people become less aggressive financially. Banks stop lending money and businesses and people stop borrowing. All parties cut their spending. They hold onto whatever cash they have. Perhaps you've already seen aspects of this in your current situation.
How can you protect yourself from deflation's effects, and turn those effects into positives? To answer those questions, let's begin with some key excerpts from the most popular book on the topic ever published, Robert Prechter's Conquer The Crash 2020: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression. The book is considered THE seminal work on the topic and has sold hundreds of thousands of copies since its first edition was released in 2002. It is a New York Times and Wall Street Journal best-seller.
Here are your excerpts from Conquer the Crash............ HereConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote:Financial Values Can DisappearQuote:Asset prices rise not because of "buying" per se, because for every buyer, there is a seller. They rise because those transacting simply agree that their prices should be higher. All that everyone else -- including those who own some of that asset and those who do not -- need do is nothing. Conversely, for prices of assets to fall, it takes only one seller and one buyer to agree that the former value of an asset was too high. If no other active bids or asks are competing with that buyer and seller's price, then the value of the asset falls, and it falls for everyone who owns it. If a million other people own it, then their net worth goes down even though they did nothing. Two investors made it happen by transacting, and the rest of the investors and all non‑investors made it happen by choosing not to disagree with their price. Financial values can disappear through a decrease in prices for any type of investment asset, including bonds, stocks, commodities, properties and cryptocurrencies.
Anyone who watches the stock or commodity markets closely has seen this phenomenon on a small scale many times. Whenever a market "gaps" up or down on an opening, it simply registers a new value on the first trade, which can be conducted by a small portion of market participants. It did not take everyone's action to make it happen, just most people's inaction on the other side. In financial market "explosions" and panics, there are prices at which assets do not trade at all as they go from one trade to the next in great leaps. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:Quote:Financial Values Can DisappearQuote:Asset prices rise not because of "buying" per se, because for every buyer, there is a seller. They rise because those transacting simply agree that their prices should be higher. All that everyone else -- including those who own some of that asset and those who do not -- need do is nothing. Conversely, for prices of assets to fall, it takes only one seller and one buyer to agree that the former value of an asset was too high. If no other active bids or asks are competing with that buyer and seller's price, then the value of the asset falls, and it falls for everyone who owns it. If a million other people own it, then their net worth goes down even though they did nothing. Two investors made it happen by transacting, and the rest of the investors and all non‑investors made it happen by choosing not to disagree with their price. Financial values can disappear through a decrease in prices for any type of investment asset, including bonds, stocks, commodities, properties and cryptocurrencies.
Anyone who watches the stock or commodity markets closely has seen this phenomenon on a small scale many times. Whenever a market "gaps" up or down on an opening, it simply registers a new value on the first trade, which can be conducted by a small portion of market participants. It did not take everyone's action to make it happen, just most people's inaction on the other side. In financial market "explosions" and panics, there are prices at which assets do not trade at all as they go from one trade to the next in great leaps. For those who try to forecast the direction of share prices by equating the buying pressure with demand be attentive! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote:A similar dynamic holds in the creation and destruction of credit. Let's suppose that a lender starts with a million dollars and the borrower starts with zero. After the creditor lends his money, the borrower possesses the million dollars, yet the lender feels that he still owns a million‑dollar asset. If anyone asks the lender what he is worth, he says, "a million dollars," and shows the note to prove it. Because of this conviction, there is, in the minds of the debtor and the creditor combined, two million dollars worth of value where before there was only one. When the lender calls in the debt and the borrower pays it, the lender gets back his million dollars. If the borrower can't pay it, the value of the note goes to zero. Either way, the presumed extra value disappears. If the original lender sold his note for cash, then someone else loses. In an actively traded bond market, the result of a looming default is like a game of "hot potato": whoever holds it last loses his entire investment. When the volume of credit is large, investors can perceive vast sums of money and value where in fact there are nothing but repayment promises, which are financial assets dependent upon consensus valuation and the ability of debtors to pay. IOUs can be issued indefinitely, but they have value only as long as, and only to the extent that, people believe the debtors will repay. Courtesy Elliottwave International. EWI ReportsConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:Quote:A similar dynamic holds in the creation and destruction of credit. Let's suppose that a lender starts with a million dollars and the borrower starts with zero. After the creditor lends his money, the borrower possesses the million dollars, yet the lender feels that he still owns a million‑dollar asset. If anyone asks the lender what he is worth, he says, "a million dollars," and shows the note to prove it. Because of this conviction, there is, in the minds of the debtor and the creditor combined, two million dollars worth of value where before there was only one. When the lender calls in the debt and the borrower pays it, the lender gets back his million dollars. If the borrower can't pay it, the value of the note goes to zero. Either way, the presumed extra value disappears. If the original lender sold his note for cash, then someone else loses. In an actively traded bond market, the result of a looming default is like a game of "hot potato": whoever holds it last loses his entire investment. When the volume of credit is large, investors can perceive vast sums of money and value where in fact there are nothing but repayment promises, which are financial assets dependent upon consensus valuation and the ability of debtors to pay. IOUs can be issued indefinitely, but they have value only as long as, and only to the extent that, people believe the debtors will repay. Courtesy Elliottwave International. EWI Reports The very reason why Financial institutions, especially banks, collapse in a deflationary environment. Your entire savings in a bank are not held
 in the bank per se. With fractional reserves a bank can create money out of nothing and lend it out to every Wafula, Ochieng and Ngugi. When it reaches a point where the three cannot pay then your bank simply collapses like a house of cards. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/1/2017 Posts: 288
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Quote:A similar dynamic holds in the creation and destruction of credit. Let's suppose that a lender starts with a million dollars and the borrower starts with zero. After the creditor lends his money, the borrower possesses the million dollars, yet the lender feels that he still owns a million‑dollar asset. If anyone asks the lender what he is worth, he says, "a million dollars," and shows the note to prove it. Because of this conviction, there is, in the minds of the debtor and the creditor combined, two million dollars worth of value where before there was only one. When the lender calls in the debt and the borrower pays it, the lender gets back his million dollars. If the borrower can't pay it, the value of the note goes to zero. Either way, the presumed extra value disappears. If the original lender sold his note for cash, then someone else loses. In an actively traded bond market, the result of a looming default is like a game of "hot potato": whoever holds it last loses his entire investment. When the volume of credit is large, investors can perceive vast sums of money and value where in fact there are nothing but repayment promises, which are financial assets dependent upon consensus valuation and the ability of debtors to pay. IOUs can be issued indefinitely, but they have value only as long as, and only to the extent that, people believe the debtors will repay. Courtesy Elliottwave International. EWI Reports The very reason why Financial institutions, especially banks, collapse in a deflationary environment. Your entire savings in a bank are not held
in the bank per se. With fractional reserves a bank can create money out of nothing and lend it out to every Wafula, Ochieng and Ngugi. When it reaches a point where the three cannot pay then your bank simply collapses like a house of cards. Spot on @mnandii.Fractional reserve banking and the fiat monetary system is a fraud.The ability of central and commercial banks to create currency out of nothing and lend it at interest is just criminal.Money is created from debt and if the debt is defaulted upon money is destroyed and thats why banks collapse during bank runs and in a deflationary environment as defaulters destroy the money supply. In fact deflation is good and desirable.Who doesnt want lower prices for the goods and services that they procure?The inflationists argue that if a seller sells his product at lower prices then he loses revenue thus could go bankrupt.What they fail to mention is that the sellers cost of production also reduces thus profit margins are evened off.Profits could even increase in this situation if due to lower prices,more buyers can afford to buy more of the produce. Another argument that inflationists tout is that if prices are consistently going down then buyers defer purchases for the future expecting to buy at even lower prices.That might be partially true for a very small percentage of products.For essentials like foodstuffs that are needed daily,a consumer wont postpone purchasing of food because the following week prices are lower lest he starve to death.Also,products such as electronics like computers,phones,TVs and so forth experience perpetual deflation as price for electronics brands reduces over time yet people dont postpone buying electronics indefinitely expecting lower prices.If they need them they will buy promptly. Deflation increases the purchasing power of money as the same money supply can chase more products for cheaper prices thus for savers,deflation increases their wealth.Of course for debtors deflation is bad as increases the value of their debt to be paid back and that's why governments who are net massive debtors hate deflation as the value of their debt increases and they are happy to print more money and inflate their debt away knowing their debt payments become cheaper.For a government and society thats on a debt binge,they prefer inflation for this reason but it reduces purchasing power of the currency depriving disciplined savers of the rewards of frugal savings.I think we all agree its far better to have savings than live off debt. For those who decry that deflation in asset classes like stocks,bonds and real estate is bad,yes its horrible if you bought overvalued stocks like in the US stock market.One shouldnt have bought into a bubble market and the deflationary environment is good punishment in engaging yourself in bubble markets.Deflation of bubble markets is seen as undesirable yet its a free market mechanism of purging excesses and malinvestments and return markets to fair value.For an astute investor deflation is good as they can buy these assets more cheaply Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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mnandii wrote:Quote:How to Protect Yourself and Your Family From DeflationWhat You Need to Know NowQuote:The media has been talking about deflation. The word is finding itself inserted into articles of many kinds. And with good reason: Deflation is a concern with any financial contraction, including the one we've been witnessing recently -- especially when there are record levels of debt in the system as there are now.
It's crucial to understand what deflation truly is and is not. In fact, most people think that deflation equals falling prices. Deflation INCLUDES falling prices. But that's not its most important feature. Its most important feature is that the supply of money and credit disappears. Because of that, most people are devastated, financially, when it occurs.
The good news is that you can prepare for deflation. If you do so, you can actually turn its most devastating impacts on their heads -- so they HELP you rather than HURT you.
To begin our report, let's return to our definition: Deflation is the contraction in the supply of money and credit. This occurs because businesses and people become less aggressive financially. Banks stop lending money and businesses and people stop borrowing. All parties cut their spending. They hold onto whatever cash they have. Perhaps you've already seen aspects of this in your current situation.
How can you protect yourself from deflation's effects, and turn those effects into positives? To answer those questions, let's begin with some key excerpts from the most popular book on the topic ever published, Robert Prechter's Conquer The Crash 2020: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression. The book is considered THE seminal work on the topic and has sold hundreds of thousands of copies since its first edition was released in 2002. It is a New York Times and Wall Street Journal best-seller.
Here are your excerpts from Conquer the Crash............ Here Would’ve made for interesting reading but there’s a paywall 😬😬 For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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winmak wrote:mnandii wrote:Quote:How to Protect Yourself and Your Family From DeflationWhat You Need to Know NowQuote:The media has been talking about deflation. The word is finding itself inserted into articles of many kinds. And with good reason: Deflation is a concern with any financial contraction, including the one we've been witnessing recently -- especially when there are record levels of debt in the system as there are now.
It's crucial to understand what deflation truly is and is not. In fact, most people think that deflation equals falling prices. Deflation INCLUDES falling prices. But that's not its most important feature. Its most important feature is that the supply of money and credit disappears. Because of that, most people are devastated, financially, when it occurs.
The good news is that you can prepare for deflation. If you do so, you can actually turn its most devastating impacts on their heads -- so they HELP you rather than HURT you.
To begin our report, let's return to our definition: Deflation is the contraction in the supply of money and credit. This occurs because businesses and people become less aggressive financially. Banks stop lending money and businesses and people stop borrowing. All parties cut their spending. They hold onto whatever cash they have. Perhaps you've already seen aspects of this in your current situation.
How can you protect yourself from deflation's effects, and turn those effects into positives? To answer those questions, let's begin with some key excerpts from the most popular book on the topic ever published, Robert Prechter's Conquer The Crash 2020: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression. The book is considered THE seminal work on the topic and has sold hundreds of thousands of copies since its first edition was released in 2002. It is a New York Times and Wall Street Journal best-seller.
Here are your excerpts from Conquer the Crash............ Here Would’ve made for interesting reading but there’s a paywall 😬😬 Wait a few days and it will become cheaper thanks to deflation.  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 EABL. Updated wave counts. Falling in wave (iii) of [iii]. Wait to buy at Ksh 10.00 Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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