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Coronavirus
jgithige
#1001 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2020 12:35:08 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/10/2014
Posts: 145
Location: Nairobi
Some think lockdown is not enough
https://t.co/2ecMzTad1Y?amp=1
"Blowing out someone else candle won't make yours shine brighter"-Anonymous
tycho
#1002 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2020 2:19:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
What the government has done is a bare minimum measure before lock down. First, it is preventing infected persons from Nairobi from infecting others outside. The government has also reduced the rate of inter-estate movement to some degree.

Otherwise, even with Jack Ma's contribution of testing kits there is little possibility of having any serious tests for non-suspects given contact tracing.

Isolation and social distancing still remain elusive in these areas under partial lockdown.

Given the rates of testing and isolation, and the rates and periods of virulence by infected persons, how probable is it that all shall be well after 21 days? The answer is: it will be difficult to unlock the down after 21 days.

What will happen is what's happening in China. Only those with a special pass will be able to move. Or what's being proposed in Italy: only those who have been infected and recovered will move.

You can imagine the rest of the scenario for yourselves.

We haven't began answering the real question. Uhuru's hand has been forced. But the problem is he may soon find himself in a culdesac.
madollar
#1003 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2020 2:31:14 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 2,040
Location: GA
sqft wrote:


This happened in italy prior to a lockdown watu walijua what happened next tuachie historians
tycho
#1004 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2020 2:49:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
So, my friends, I believe that I have done a comprehensive literature review regarding the possibility of a treatment that can see us through the challenge of finding how to live and work effectively and efficiently, with this virus.

My main line of inquiry has been on how we can fill some of the knowledge gaps identified and to figure out how information related to these gaps can help us understand the nature of thus virus, and how to counter it.

The knowledge gaps existing led me to the less spoken of issue of bio-aerosol action. This is about emissions of viruses and bacteria in the form of very small particles that can form clouds or network structures in the atmosphere. These clouds are inert but can often be activated.

For those who have noticed, I have tried to formulate basic rules or 'laws' that can be deduced from my study. To which I say that:

4. 4th law is that the rate of recovery is directly proportional to rate of immunity rise and that

5. Rate of infection, being a function of overall being - hence energy level - is related to the energy levels and activation thresholds of inactive virions in the atmosphere.

For me, it is not that one can't ever get Covid after initial infection. One may get Covid and deal with it better. I have read the research paper on the tests done on Macaque monkeys, and I believe that the tests conducted on the monkeys overlooked the above factors.

As such, I can boldly predict the following: cases of reinfection will increase in the countries lifting lockdowns, and that the macaque monkeys may need to be followed to find out if they will get Covid again.

And that's the whole point behind vaccination. One is meant to overcome infection whenever there's an encounter between the individual and the pathogen.
Bigchick
#1005 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2020 10:41:28 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/8/2013
Posts: 4,068
Location: At Large.
From COVID-19 Tracker Worldometer,yesturday we had 3500 new confirmed cases and 142 new deaths.

Is it safe/ok to conclude the worst is over and that we are now getting to a new phase that will have less casualties.

#Extremistinoptimism.
#Weshallovercome.
Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
tycho
#1006 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2020 11:16:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
Bigchick wrote:
From COVID-19 Tracker Worldometer,yesturday we had 3500 new confirmed cases and 142 new deaths.

Is it safe/ok to conclude the worst is over and that we are now getting to a new phase that will have less casualties.

#Extremistinoptimism.
#Weshallovercome.


I see it as a mixed bag. Some countries are peaking while others are rising, for example, we might soon be talking of Russia a lot. At that time we may have higher figures than you've mentioned.

Here's the thing: that we have a new virus with us is a forgone conclusion. It is no longer a matter of never getting this virus because even a vaccine is a version of it.

We have no vaccine at the moment, and some countries may develop it in a year or two. The question is, what do we do?

I believe that if we start answering this question in a positive, and intelligent manner we have reason to be optimistic. I know the numbers are shocking, I know we fear death, and I also know that it is necessary for us to be calm and to think critically about what's happening.

I believe we now have a scientific understanding of Covid that may be different from the understanding that was in Feb. 2020. Have we adjusted? For example: Leung et all, 2020, have shown that there is viral shedding during exhalation. If we consider this kind of action and implication on how for example, a patient progresses in a room, then we find that it is very likely that he/she will inhale more and more virions, till pneumonia.

Consider the situation: if this is the case, then what should we do to prevent deterioration of the patient?

I believe that genuine optimism is one that meets life with such an approach. Our hope is not in numbers, but in our ability to reason intelligently and change realities.
sqft
#1007 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2020 11:21:55 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 961
Location: Kenya
Local solutions.


Quote:
Kisumu residents defy curfew to ‘expel’ nyawawa (covid) evil spirits


https://www.nation.co.ke...5416-450w7vz/index.html
Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
tycho
#1008 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2020 11:43:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
sqft wrote:
Local solutions.


Quote:
Kisumu residents defy curfew to ‘expel’ nyawawa (covid) evil spirits


https://www.nation.co.ke...5416-450w7vz/index.html


Nyawawa is an old ritual. It's like going to church.

The local solution we have is what GOK is doing, and how we are responding. And I would like to let you know that the scientific establishment in Kenya is deep asleep, at a time of crisis. Why? Because it is bent on routine and those your 'international solutions'. Solutions that we can show to be politically and morally biased against us. This is a scandal unfolding.
T-Bag
#1009 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2020 12:03:10 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/25/2008
Posts: 510
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yr6lnPVc4tg. Life can change really fast. This is it, china may well be headed to Numero UNO superpower status. Smart move Wuhan assumming they trully have 1,242 active cases
I AM trust in GOD, I AM belief in THYSELF
tycho
#1010 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2020 12:43:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
T-Bag wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yr6lnPVc4tg. Life can change really fast. This is it, china may well be headed to Numero UNO superpower status. Smart move Wuhan assumming they trully have 1,242 active cases


What good is this statistic if you have to be color coded 'Green' in order to move for 2 hrs, with the limit of only one person to move, per household?
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