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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#3341 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 9:25:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


An extended fifth wave(red wave (v)) to the downside. A dizzying drop toward sub-2000.

Once we have a bottom the reversal will be sharp as well
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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lochaz-index
#3342 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 9:49:51 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:


An extended fifth wave(red wave (v)) to the downside. A dizzying drop toward sub-2000.

Once we have a bottom the reversal will be sharp as well

Agreed. I had pegged sub-2000 to come in Q2 or Q3 but Mr. Market does not want to wait that long.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Angelica _ann
#3343 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 10:23:56 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


An extended fifth wave(red wave (v)) to the downside. A dizzying drop toward sub-2000.

Once we have a bottom the reversal will be sharp as well

Agreed. I had pegged sub-2000 to come in Q2 or Q3 but Mr. Market does not want to wait that long.


That reversal is where we need to look out for. I will buy some shares - Coop (11-12), KCB and Equity (35-38) (speculation) once they hit my target prices. smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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mnandii
#3344 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 8:47:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Equity Bank today 16th March.
Yet I was told how Kenyan banks have fundamentals to support them!

Expect more downside.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3345 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 8:50:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Angelica _ann wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


An extended fifth wave(red wave (v)) to the downside. A dizzying drop toward sub-2000.

Once we have a bottom the reversal will be sharp as well

Agreed. I had pegged sub-2000 to come in Q2 or Q3 but Mr. Market does not want to wait that long.


That reversal is where we need to look out for. I will buy some shares - Coop (11-12), KCB and Equity (35-38) (speculation) once they hit my target prices. smile



Keep Cash.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3346 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 8:58:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


FTSE NSE KENYA 15.

Proper fundamental analysis!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3347 Posted : Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:03:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


I expect Equity to go sub 20 soon.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3348 Posted : Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:06:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
USDKES AT 105
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3349 Posted : Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:53:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Back in July 2015. The waves in OIL were clear. The forecast was clear> Oil would fall.
Post 526

mnandii wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?

It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities.



smile smile

We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this!

2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.

MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.

USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.

I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.


Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then.

Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis.


Oil Price will Fall Definitely!


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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VituVingiSana
#3350 Posted : Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:42:50 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
Back in July 2015. The waves in OIL were clear. The forecast was clear> Oil would fall.
Post 526

mnandii wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?

It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities.



smile smile

We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this!

2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.

MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.

USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.

I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.


Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then.

Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis.


Oil Price will Fall Definitely!


So it took 4.5 years.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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