mnandii wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Fundamental analysts and especially macro-economists have been proven over and over never to have the ability to tell when a trend is likely to change. Eg Elliott Wave International (EWI) has been predicting the end of the bull run in the DOW for ages. Now the DOW has started it's long drop down and there's still more downside to come. But you know what fundamentalists are saying right now? They are advising people to buy, that the current drop is simply a correction. Well, many people will make that damn mistake and buy. And they'll lose.
In 2015 I predicted the end of the bull run in NSE 20 Share Index. The very first post in this thread is testament to that. But as always no one listened. The bulls were busy cheering on with the funadmentalists on the leading edge. Well, the index has fallen all the way from over 5000 to now 2300. I don't remember any fundamentalist having the audacity to call all that drop!
Fundamental investors look at fundamentals so when prices go out of whack, they stop/reduce buying or start selling.
I have sold shares/positions in the past when they seemed untenable in light of the prices vs the underlying performance.
BTW, I do not invest in an index but in specific shares/stocks with the top 5 constituting 80%+ and the top 10 would be 95%+.
Please please give Elliott Waves the benefit of doubt? I pray you spare some time and do some reading on it? Maybe even jus subscribe for the Financial Forecast service at EWI for a month? I promise you it will be worth your while.
My 5 shares have barely flinched compared to the index, and even if they did i wouldn't be worried because they are fundamentally strong. I would actually add more - cash allowing. The days of buying shares because of crown or broker are way past
Disclaimer: I am not doubting Elliott's Wave, i have used it here once in a while courtesy of you and made money, but different people invest for different reasons.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen