I'll try to chart the smaller subdivisions of wave C to give us a clearer indication of waves two's extent.

I admit I do not understand the charts and they seem more likely to be produced after the fact and have lots of conditions e.g. it will rise to 40 or fall below 30. And that's OK given there are few guarantees.

And most (or experienced) "fundamental" investors know there are no guarantees. Things can change and one has to adapt.
Also they do not buy the "market" as much as specific stocks on fundamentals.

As an example (on the NSE), not all banks are equal. Not in 1999, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017, 2020...
The same goes for most firms eg insurance firms or real estate firms.

There may be macro situations that affect all firms in a sector or the economy e.g. media.

Until recently, we could not buy indexes and even now it's not that simple/straightforward.

I remain curious about charting but there is little that shows its accuracy or benefits over good ol' fundamental investing given we (mostly) invest in individual stocks not the NASI or NSE.

I don't have the list that constitutes the NASI/NSE but I have not had Mumias, KQ, OCH, Uchumi, TCL, Cables, HAFR, etc (40 of 54) in my portfolio in any appreciable % for many years. They do not affect me.

5 constitute 85% (These affect me. Huge)
5-10 constitute another 10% (These affect me somewhat)
The rest constitute the balance of 5% (Little effect)
Then the "zero effect" shares which I do not own or have very, very few.

*Changes happen:
- KK was a top 5 and then went to 0% after the takeover.
- Centum replaced KK and was upgraded from "Tier 2" to "Core"
- ARM was Tier 2 and went to zero after it went into receivership.

Sub-2000 it is. That 1400 target will be brutal to NSE bulls. Another 1000 points shave will be a thorough shake off if there ever was one. I fear for penny stocks...what is the lowest possible price? Suspension, delisting, forced consolidation?

NSE 20 SHARE INDEX


It's a fifth wave (wave (v) of [c] of Y) down guys. There is no helping it.

Fundamental analysts and especially macro-economists have been proven over and over never to have the ability to tell when a trend is likely to change. Eg Elliott Wave International (EWI) has been predicting the end of the bull run in the DOW for ages. Now the DOW has started it's long drop down and there's still more downside to come. But you know what fundamentalists are saying right now? They are advising people to buy, that the current drop is simply a correction. Well, many people will make that damn mistake and buy. And they'll lose.

In 2015 I predicted the end of the bull run in NSE 20 Share Index. The very first post in this thread is testament to that. But as always no one listened. The bulls were busy cheering on with the funadmentalists on the leading edge. Well, the index has fallen all the way from over 5000 to now 2300. I don't remember any fundamentalist having the audacity to call all that drop!