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African tea prices falls 4% at latest auction in Mombasa.
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the deal
#1 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 10:07:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
According to www.bloomberg.com African tea prices fell 4% to $2.06 at the latest auction in Mombasa...is it game over for tea stocks??? Should we take that WTK warning seriously???
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qw25041985
#2 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 10:23:56 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Accordin to me the alarm bells ar already ringing - sell ,sell , sell tea stocks. Definately i take Wtk seriously. This probably explains the sell of at sasini. Now is time 2 b like buffet buy frm pessimist sell to optimist. Whereever optimism in this case.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 10:45:49 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
4% fall in price... Oh, let's all start panicking... The sky is falling... 4% fall in price... We are finished... The collapse of the tea industry...

[Erm, so what? Tea production has JUMPED way more than 4% vs 2009 so overall the outlook is good]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 10:51:21 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
According to www.bloomberg.com African tea prices fell 4% to $2.06 at the latest auction in Mombasa...is it game over for tea stocks??? Should we take that WTK warning seriously???


Yes, coz I want folks to SELL Williamson... I wanna buy at lower prices...
EPS was 96/- so even 50% reduction is 48/-... for a share that costs 230/-?

Of course, that dividend was CRAP...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#5 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 11:13:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
well bad news can be good news sometimes...LOL...as long as it doesnt become a weekly fall...
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sparkly
#6 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 8:42:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Question is what is driving down the prices. If because of more supply no prob as long as volumes increase and the dollar holds strong against the shilling.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 8:53:51 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Question is what is driving down the prices. If because of more supply no prob as long as volumes increase and the dollar holds strong against the shilling.

Well, let's see...

Volumes +++ (60% in 1Q 2010 vs 1Q 2009)
KES/US$ ++ (74 to 80)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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The Merchant
#8 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 11:09:08 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@ the deal....Isn't that fall in tea prices going to be buffered by about 6% weakening in the shilling versus the dollar? I believe this would make the drop in prices incapable of affecting performance. Besides, the indian companies are coming over to get a stake of our tea companies. Do you really want to miss out on this action?
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VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 11:14:53 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
The Merchant wrote:
@ the deal....Isn't that fall in tea prices going to be buffered by about 6% weakening in the shilling versus the dollar? I believe this would make the drop in prices incapable of affecting performance. Besides, the indian companies are coming over to get a stake of our tea companies. Do you really want to miss out on this action?


I am (slightly) surprised the multinational Indian Tea firms havent bought a Kenyan firm like in Uganda & Rwanda...

On the other hand, why bother in Kenya with the crazy volatile politics & talks of expropriation of land...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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cnn
#10 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 11:24:16 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
I agree prices could be down,but that is largely mitigated by the volumes,which are higher at half year.The exchange rate is better too.Kakuzi half year next month will reflect better performance .I am holding on to tea.
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, July 07, 2010 11:25 AM | Reason: Not specified
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