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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#3251 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 3:04:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you.

So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)



From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern.

In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets]

If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.



Where's @obiero?
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3252 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 3:05:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
whiteowl wrote:
@mnandii Thanks for the analysis. I need a huge war chest for this buying season. Its getting hard everyday deciding what value stocks not to buy.



Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3253 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 3:31:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
CAR AND GENERAL



The data we have of Car and General is from March 2013 from when the share rose from a low of 17.50 to top at 61.91 in three waves here labelled as blue waves ABC.

From the high of 61.91, C & G then fell in five waves labelled here as blue waves 12345. I believe C & G completed a larger Elliott Wave Flat which has now bottomed at 16.49, the wave 5 low.

Accordingly I am now bullish C & G with a Stop Loss at 16.49 and targeting a move to above 61.91. A move to above 29.22 in the coming days will be good indication that this bullish scenario will play out as depicted. The structure of the developing pattern from the low of 16.49 will be key [ideally we want to have five wave impulse move which will indicate the potential for C & G to move higher UP]

We'll keep an eye out and do real time analysis as the pieces of the jigsaw fall in place.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, February 01, 2020 3:33 PM | Reason: typo
winmak
#3254 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 4:51:20 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
mnandii wrote:
Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you.

So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)



From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern.

In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets]

If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.



What timeframe are we looking at to the 12.90?
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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whiteowl
#3255 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 5:07:44 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you.

So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)



From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern.

In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets]

If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.



Where's @obiero?


his plane is about to take off!!
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sparkly
#3256 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 5:33:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@mnandii please do EABL; BAT; NMG and Kengen.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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mnandii
#3257 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 5:35:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
WILLIAMSON TEA



Williamson Tea Kenya fell from a high of 434.39 to 122.00 in five waves here labelled as blue waves 12345.

Having completed the five down move I am now bullish on this share. A move to above 166.12 will be good indication that a bull market in Williamson has started. This rally should take Williamson to above 434.39, the previous all time high, in several months to come.

This bullish stance will be rendered null if instead Williamson Tea drops significantly below our Support level of 122.00 in the coming days.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3258 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 5:39:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
winmak wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you.

So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)



From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern.

In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets]

If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.



What timeframe are we looking at to the 12.90?


In about 6 - 8 months time, but don't quote me on time frames. On the other hand six months will be enough time to confirm or negate our bullish view.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Angelica _ann
#3259 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 10:34:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
sparkly wrote:
@mnandii please do EABL; BAT; NMG and Kengen.


BAT iko - post #3237, can't miss that one smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, February 01, 2020 10:36 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#3260 Posted : Saturday, February 01, 2020 11:17:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK


This Bank stock fell from a high of 356.44 to 182.40 in wave (A). It then traced a triangle wave (B) i.e the converging trend lines, which amounted to 23.6 % Fibonacci retracement of wave (A) - a common retracement point for B waves.

After completing wave (B) at 224.13 SCBK then promptly fell to 174.30 to form the next wave 1. Wave 2 was then in three waves i.e UP, CONSOLIDATION THEN FINAL UP to 219.41.

SCBK appears to have resumed the downtrend. A move below 174.30 in the coming days will be good confirmation of this.
SCBK will likely drop to 50.00

Whoa! At 50 bob the dividend yield would be beyond juicy assuming no drastic cuts are effected.

50/-? Come, Baby, Come!
Of course, the catch is if the 50/- is as a result of an economic collapse that devastates banks, consumers and the country's economy,


But Pray we are in an economic collapse already.
Then bring on the 50/-. ASAP. And also the 40s for DTB. Time to buy more while others are crying.
Despite the challenges, I find the management of SCBK and DTB to be above average esp SCBK.
DTB has challenges with NPLs but if I think the shares are "cheap" at 115/- then they are a huge bargain at 50/-.

Caveat: A complete collapse of the economy due to violence (PEV 2008), political turmoil (Venezuela) or economic mismanagement (Zimbabwe) means nothing is too cheap as prices head to zero.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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