KCB



KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B).

I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00

I still can't get a reading on this one. Will stand aside for now until something concrete pops up.

Safaricom at 14 unless something drastic happens

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (BAT)



The data I have of BAT dates from August 2012 when BAT rose from 387.75 to 1046.06 in three waves, here labelled as blue waves ABC.Conveniently blue wave C is Fibonacci 2.618 times blue wave A.

Since topping out at 1046.06, BAT then fell in what can be counted as three waves (so far, so long as the trend channel holds (and I expect it to)) green waves ABC. My support level here is 435.26.

I therefore expect BAT to rise from its current levels (485.75 as of today 31st Jan, 2020). A rise to above 685 will be good confirmation that the uptrend has started. If so then 920, the end of green wave B will be a close target. On the other hand if prices fall significantly below 435.26 then BAT would drop much further to 312 which would make green wave C Fibonacci 1.618 times green wave A.

For now I am bullish on BAT unless the opposite scenario plays out as stated in above paragraph.

BAT rising in a bear market (a situation of negative social mood) is consistent Socionomically in that consumption of drugs increases in major bear markets. The increased consumption and licensing of what are considered hard drugs has also seen increased use of marijuana (and associated increase in pot stocks prices )globally. With the bear still raging, we should expect Kenya to also license some of the hard drugs in tandem with their increased consumption. Alcohol should also be considered along these lines.

Whoa! At 50 bob the dividend yield would be beyond juicy assuming no drastic cuts are effected.