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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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lochaz-index
#3221 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2020 11:13:33 AM
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mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Watching this one closely.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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mnandii
#3222 Posted : Friday, January 10, 2020 9:22:05 AM
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NASI is in our target zone of 171.72.

Expect moves to below 139 soon.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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wukan
#3223 Posted : Thursday, January 16, 2020 12:31:59 PM
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lochaz-index wrote:

I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.

Having dodged a fiscal crisis in the capping regime, treasury and cbk will be doing alot financial gymnastics to keep this ship afloat both on the interest rate and exchange rate fronts. The needless demonetization exercise will bite a chunk off annual growth rates. I expect this to be a politically expensive year for the regime and likely a course changing one as political capital is expended to assuage civil unease/unrest as economic hardships bite.


#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM

Quote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40

wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom


Continuing on this line of thought. The catfight between treasury and CBK ended and market did a double bottom around 2500. This still hasn't cured the malaise in the market and general economy.

why-the expectation of falling asset prices. Started off with equities and now bonds and real estate. You now have borrowers saving by paying down the debt and the savings hanging around the banking system instead of being invested.

Treasury has run out of runway to offer fiscal stimulus at a time when it's needed and CBK has done very timid steps. Now we have a situation in which treasury is doing deeps cuts(ideally shud have been done in 2017-18) then paying off suppliers who then pay off their debts (deleverage). Overall effect is draining off cash leading to falling incomes, more illiquidity and more insolvency. CBK and treasury after the catfight are now locked in a romantic dance which will keep the real economy in a more depressed state for quite some time.

Best thing is to watch the romantic dance until something gives. Continue to pay down debt and let the savings hang around the banking system, money markets till you see credible future inflation.
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mnandii
#3224 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2020 3:33:16 PM
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mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
NAIROBI ALL SHARE INDEX (NASI)

You can see a completed impulsive Elliott Wave represented by numbers 12345 to complete a larger degree wave (A) or (1). The completion of this impulse implies that the largest correction since the start of the impulse wave is at hand. In fact the correction has started (where we have wave A at about 139. Wave B is developing (as indicated by the UP ARROW) whose targets (ending) are the green lines/levels). Once wave B completes i will expect the NASI to drop to targets indicated by the blue lines and most especially the 122.07 or 105.60 being 50% and 61.8% retracement of the impulse.



The structure of an ideal impulse wave is shown below:



Post 3175 of 23rd August


Back in August 2019 we forecasted the ending target for wave B i. e 171.72.

Target was hit and NASI has resumed its fall. Now at 161.21.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3225 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2020 3:36:15 PM
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NASI today 30th Jan. Should drop below 155 soon on its way down under.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3226 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2020 3:40:01 PM
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lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Watching this one closely.


Safcom may have topped out at 33.50.

A move below 25.00 will be conformation that a top is set at 33.50. If that happens then expect Safcom to fall much further to at least 14.00.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3227 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2020 4:25:51 PM
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mnandii wrote:
Quite interesting times in real estate indeed!

I made a post here a few months ago about Universities starting courses in Real Estate. That was a sign of a bear market.

Today in BD we have a heading "Upper Hill land most costly as prices in Nairobi up 535pc" and also something in TV about land in Nairobi becoming more costly than gold.

Upper Hill Land

Also there has lately been stories of grabbers targeting public property: another sign of the huge interest in land.

People, these are sentiment extremes in these markets. Real estate is going to fall. Your best bet of when to buy it is around 2016 when you'll purchase it at cents to the shilling at current market prices. Be patient and hold onto your cash.

The decceleration is now quite near.



Stated on Jan 30th 2015.
post #274

I was wrong on the timing though.
Real estate is poor today in 2020.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3228 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 8:52:20 AM
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BARCLAYS BANK OF KENYA


Dropped from a high of 19.14 to 7.00. Barclays has attempted a weak recovery
 and is currently trading at 13.00.

I expect a small push to 14.50, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the drop (19.14 to 7.00) then a resumption of the downtrend to below 7.00.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3229 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 9:19:32 AM
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STANDARD CHARTERED BANK


This Bank stock fell from a high of 356.44 to 182.40 in wave (A). It then traced a triangle wave (B) i.e the converging trend lines, which amounted to 23.6 % Fibonacci retracement of wave (A) - a common retracement point for B waves.

After completing wave (B) at 224.13 SCBK then promptly fell to 174.30 to form the next wave 1. Wave 2 was then in three waves i.e UP, CONSOLIDATION THEN FINAL UP to 219.41.

SCBK appears to have resumed the downtrend. A move below 174.30 in the coming days will be good confirmation of this.
SCBK will likely drop to 50.00
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3230 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 9:30:36 AM
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To see the 'cartoons' better, Right click on image > Open in NEW TAB
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3231 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 9:34:43 AM
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KCB



KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B).

I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00



Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3232 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 9:54:06 AM
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COOPERATIVE BANK



COOP Bank is likely tracing out a bearish triangle where waves ABCD are complete. COOP will likely rise to 17.86, a Fibonacci 61.8% multiple of wave C then fall off. ( A fall to below wave D will imply further weakness to below 8.00)

In the meantime I don't expect a rise in COOP to exceed 19.96 in the near term (the red line in the sand).
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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lochaz-index
#3233 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 10:46:41 AM
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Joined: 9/18/2014
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mnandii wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Watching this one closely.


Safcom may have topped out at 33.50.

A move below 25.00 will be conformation that a top is set at 33.50. If that happens then expect Safcom to fall much further to at least 14.00.

I still can't get a reading on this one. Will stand aside for now until something concrete pops up.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Ericsson
#3234 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 11:19:59 AM
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mnandii wrote:
KCB



KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B).

I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00




If KCB drops below 22 then Kenya's economy will have literally collapsed
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#3235 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 11:21:58 AM
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mnandii wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Watching this one closely.


Safcom may have topped out at 33.50.

A move below 25.00 will be conformation that a top is set at 33.50. If that happens then expect Safcom to fall much further to at least 14.00.


Safaricom at 14 unless something drastic happens
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Angelica _ann
#3236 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 11:34:42 AM
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Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
KCB



KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B).

I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00




If KCB drops below 22 then Kenya's economy will have literally collapsed


KCB had a share split, have you taken that into account?
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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mnandii
#3237 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 12:35:27 PM
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BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (BAT)



The data I have of BAT dates from August 2012 when BAT rose from 387.75 to 1046.06 in three waves, here labelled as blue waves ABC.Conveniently blue wave C is Fibonacci 2.618 times blue wave A.

Since topping out at 1046.06, BAT then fell in what can be counted as three waves (so far, so long as the trend channel holds (and I expect it to)) green waves ABC. My support level here is 435.26.

I therefore expect BAT to rise from its current levels (485.75 as of today 31st Jan, 2020). A rise to above 685 will be good confirmation that the uptrend has started. If so then 920, the end of green wave B will be a close target. On the other hand if prices fall significantly below 435.26 then BAT would drop much further to 312 which would make green wave C Fibonacci 1.618 times green wave A.

For now I am bullish on BAT unless the opposite scenario plays out as stated in above paragraph.

BAT rising in a bear market (a situation of negative social mood) is consistent Socionomically in that consumption of drugs increases in major bear markets. The increased consumption and licensing of what are considered hard drugs has also seen increased use of marijuana (and associated increase in pot stocks prices )globally. With the bear still raging, we should expect Kenya to also license some of the hard drugs in tandem with their increased consumption. Alcohol should also be considered along these lines.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3238 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 12:40:14 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
KCB



KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B).

I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00




If KCB drops below 22 then Kenya's economy will have literally collapsed


KCB had a share split, have you taken that into account?


Yes. Taken into account. That's the beauty of Elliott Waves.
There is a philosophical underpinning for this (I know you would not just want me to simply state things). The philosophical basis is found in one of Robert Prechter's books, I will try to check it out and give the reference.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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lochaz-index
#3239 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 12:50:29 PM
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Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK


This Bank stock fell from a high of 356.44 to 182.40 in wave (A). It then traced a triangle wave (B) i.e the converging trend lines, which amounted to 23.6 % Fibonacci retracement of wave (A) - a common retracement point for B waves.

After completing wave (B) at 224.13 SCBK then promptly fell to 174.30 to form the next wave 1. Wave 2 was then in three waves i.e UP, CONSOLIDATION THEN FINAL UP to 219.41.

SCBK appears to have resumed the downtrend. A move below 174.30 in the coming days will be good confirmation of this.
SCBK will likely drop to 50.00

Whoa! At 50 bob the dividend yield would be beyond juicy assuming no drastic cuts are effected.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Angelica _ann
#3240 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2020 12:57:27 PM
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Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK


This Bank stock fell from a high of 356.44 to 182.40 in wave (A). It then traced a triangle wave (B) i.e the converging trend lines, which amounted to 23.6 % Fibonacci retracement of wave (A) - a common retracement point for B waves.

After completing wave (B) at 224.13 SCBK then promptly fell to 174.30 to form the next wave 1. Wave 2 was then in three waves i.e UP, CONSOLIDATION THEN FINAL UP to 219.41.

SCBK appears to have resumed the downtrend. A move below 174.30 in the coming days will be good confirmation of this.
SCBK will likely drop to 50.00

Whoa! At 50 bob the dividend yield would be beyond juicy assuming no drastic cuts are effected.


At 50bob I would mbuy mbuy and mbuy whah!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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