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Is MSC diversifying for post COMESA period??
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Ephy
#1 Posted : Monday, July 05, 2010 6:09:30 PM
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Joined: 9/18/2009
Posts: 19
My question regards MSC and what it is doing to ensure its profitability and ability to compete competitively after the COMESA treaty expires in 2012 meaning unlimited export of sugar from comesa countires into Kenya?

Will their investment or proposed investment in ethanol,water and the current electricity generation be enough with foreseable increased competition?

With that in mind,what is the projected price of this share with a longeterm perspective?
See what everyone has seen,but think what nobody has thought. Albert Szent-Gyorgyi
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Kesh!
#2 Posted : Monday, July 05, 2010 11:22:32 PM
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Joined: 10/16/2008
Posts: 47
i stand to be corrected coz i dont have the info first hand and anything i say may need verification. first lof all personally i think that they will do good with the TARDA (production of their own cane) which will increase reliability of deliveries of cane since its them producing and also reduce reliance on rain for cane (that's the case by farmers currently) and volumes due to short maturity period of the cane. plus the power production will help in two ways reduce power cost and increase revenue from the excess they sell. plus i think many times av heard of shortage of sugar so high prices. now anyone with figures can tell us if the mkwanja saved and/or generated from these sources are enough to stave off competition.
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the deal
#3 Posted : Monday, July 05, 2010 11:48:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
this stock made at stocksmaster famous...that was the time to board...at this prices its long long term buy like kengen...but if ir dips to 10-11 bob one can buy...
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VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 4:00:13 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
It is a complicated one... but the government owned sugar firms will die before Mumias is affected...

There is COMESA, power, ethanol... all these combined make it tough to figure out the future BUT it looks better than last year... The price is also higher then last year...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ephy
#5 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 12:25:38 PM
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Joined: 9/18/2009
Posts: 19
@The Deal: i agree,but how long is longterm? For instance i can say,Kengen is for someone looking for >6years because all Kengen can do now is invest their money.In projection of the demand for enegry they are waaaaay below expectations. @VVS: Yes,though i think if they can speed up up acquisitions of the govt. owned sugar firms,it can help a lot.This is one share that can perform very well in 2yrs if the management is sharp enough.It can be what Dangote sugar mills is to Nigeria.
See what everyone has seen,but think what nobody has thought. Albert Szent-Gyorgyi
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VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 12:46:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@ephy - Dangote has 'benefits' not available to Mumias...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Kesh!
#7 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 3:27:53 PM
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Joined: 10/16/2008
Posts: 47
@vvs... what benefits are those that Dangote has that mumias doesn't plus how long is the loan to mumias to build the cogen plant likely to take to be repaid?
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Kesh!
#8 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 4:07:47 PM
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Joined: 10/16/2008
Posts: 47
@vvs... what benefits are those that Dangote has that mumias doesn't plus how long is the loan to mumias to build the cogen plant likely to take to be repaid?
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winston
#9 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 4:59:58 PM
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Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
The Key difference between Comesa and Mumias sugar is presumably the price. Comesa being cheaper.

The Tarda project will significantly alter the price dynamics. World sugar is cheaper because of efficient machines, plantation (largescale) farming, early maturing varieties and low altitude farms.

All these factors are/will be present with Tarda project. So in the long term Mumias will be able to compete with Comesa sugar.

There was a proposal to blend ethanol with gasoline by the goverment. This will benefit Mumias too.
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youcan'tstopusnow
#10 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 5:27:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Aliko Dangote has been connected to the very top officials of Nigeria's Administration for a long time. He is a personal friend of Obasanjo.
We all know how corrupt Nigeria is.
Note that I'm not saying that the Dangote Group acquired their money through questionable means, but they might be gaining some undue advantage from Aliko's connections.
Maybe these are the "benefits" VVS was talking about.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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