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Centum half year result 2019/2020
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VituVingiSana
#31 Posted : Sunday, December 01, 2019 11:03:12 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
guru267 wrote:
A few years ago Kirubi valued Centum shares at Kshs 100. I suspect there is significant pressure on the management to undertake some form of corporate action at FY2020 to unlock at least some of this value.

Hence the whole stock buy back story to manipulate the stock price. Centum will buy the stock at overpriced values so as to decrease stock liquidity and lock the price to somewhere near their valuation so as to please some of their big investors.
So are you in or out? Laughing out loudly


I am buying so as to sell to them in the buyback program. Easy profit
Applause Applause Applause
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#32 Posted : Sunday, December 01, 2019 11:06:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
guru267 wrote:
watesh wrote:
guru267 wrote:
A few years ago Kirubi valued Centum shares at Kshs 100. I suspect there is significant pressure on the management to undertake some form of corporate action at FY2020 to unlock at least some of this value.


Hence the whole stock buy back story to manipulate the stock price. Centum will buy the stock at overpriced values so as to decrease stock liquidity and lock the price to somewhere near their valuation so as to please some of their big investors.


What's wrong with this though? Shouldn't the share price reflect the company's book value 1:1 at the very least?


Waste of cash. Their business doesn't generate cash that fast since land sales take longer to close. Instead of deploying that cash is buying back stocks in the stock market, invest in other higher return projects. CEO said most of his big investors/shareholders are there for long term ie minimum 10 years so why worry about the share price now yet none of the huge shareholders are willing to exit anytime soon. The share price will catch up to the NAV once the investor sentiments around the real estate sector become more positive. Just use the money for other investments and not artificially propping up the share price.

Applause Applause Applause
If the returns are higher for shareholders from new projects vs share buybacks then Centum should invest in new projects.
I like the long-term focus of folks in Centum. Mworia is still young and can easily stay on for another 10 years.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Wakanyugi
#33 Posted : Monday, December 02, 2019 8:09:16 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,635
watesh wrote:
guru267 wrote:
watesh wrote:
guru267 wrote:
A few years ago Kirubi valued Centum shares at Kshs 100. I suspect there is significant pressure on the management to undertake some form of corporate action at FY2020 to unlock at least some of this value.


Hence the whole stock buy back story to manipulate the stock price. Centum will buy the stock at overpriced values so as to decrease stock liquidity and lock the price to somewhere near their valuation so as to please some of their big investors.


What's wrong with this though? Shouldn't the share price reflect the company's book value 1:1 at the very least?


Waste of cash. Their business doesn't generate cash that fast since land sales take longer to close. Instead of deploying that cash is buying back stocks in the stock market, invest in other higher return projects. CEO said most of his big investors/shareholders are there for long term ie minimum 10 years so why worry about the share price now yet none of the huge shareholders are willing to exit anytime soon. The share price will catch up to the NAV once the investor sentiments around the real estate sector become more positive. Just use the money for other investments and not artificially propping up the share price.


No quite a waste. You remember the Centum policy of no dividends, which they had to give up due to investor pressure? This would now make sense if they had a way to shore up share price - which share buybacks will do. Then they can devote the rest of the cash to building the company rather than paying dividends.

Microsoft played this game for years and benefited both the company and many investors.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
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Angelica _ann
#34 Posted : Monday, December 02, 2019 11:26:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935

https://www.businessdail...370430-h193gm/index.html
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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target1360
#35 Posted : Tuesday, December 03, 2019 8:43:44 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/14/2014
Posts: 289
Location: nairobi
Why is this company ever in the news.Is it a good thing or a bad thing.I have never understood this company-centum.
I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
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littledove
#36 Posted : Tuesday, December 03, 2019 9:17:50 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
[quote=Angelica _ann]
https://www.businessdail...70430-h193gm/index.html[/quote]

According to them they are almost completing first round of investment by exiting 10 out of 15
investments. They will then embark on second round of investment by borrowing afresh.
The question is, how will shareholders benefit from first round bearing in mind they were not paying
dividend and even when they started it was just too little? dont they feel they should pay a special
dividend or if they want to spare cash a heavy bonus?
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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VituVingiSana
#37 Posted : Tuesday, December 03, 2019 9:30:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
littledove wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:

https://www.businessdail...70430-h193gm/index.html


According to them they are almost completing first round of investment by exiting 10 out of 15
investments. They will then embark on second round of investment by borrowing afresh.
The question is, how will shareholders benefit from first round bearing in mind they were not paying
dividend and even when they started it was just too little? dont they feel they should pay a special
dividend or if they want to spare cash a heavy bonus?

How does a bonus help?
Have you heard of Berkshire Hathaway?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sparkly
#38 Posted : Friday, December 06, 2019 3:11:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
muganda wrote:
Curiously:
Consolidated income statement +226%
Company income statement -273%

Gains on disposal of Almasi 2.6bn
Writedown on Amu Power -2.3bn

Net Asset Value per share down 4%



Centum is selling good assets to cover for losses from their risky investments.

People shouldn't be left dancing when the music stops.

That's not why they sold Almasi but they got a good price. The total gain was 18.6bn. The realized less unrealized gain = 2.6bn
It's a good move to provide for Amu given it is almost dead.


By that logic...BRK should be selling Coca Cola they bought at $2.45 and sold to help out Dexter or Tesco. That would be throwing good money after bad. Almasi has done well for Centum but they really aren’t the contrarian investors they want everyone to believe. The economy is on the down. It’s now that we we will see who has been swimming naked as the waves recede

Let's break it down.

Dexter - If I recall, was bought for shares not using debt so there is no need to sell an asset to repay any loan/s due for Dexter. I think BRK has taken provisions/impairments on Dexter. Why do you think BRK needs to help Dexter?
Tesco - The shares were sold and loss was booked. Why do you think BRK needs to help Tesco when it is not a subsidiary?

Coke - There is a huge capital gains liability upon the sale of Coke shares. The reinvestment has to provide similar ROI to holding Coke. The sale of such a huge stake could depress prices unless BRK can find a large enough buyer at the right price.


U digress. We are talking about Centum comparing their selling of almasi to rejuvenate Amu (profit making entity to help out a crappy investment)
I kif up.


Centum says "don't look at the cashflows,look at NAV".

Now the NAV is eroded by 4%.
Real estate is a struggling, Sidian is struggling, Amu is written off (oh provided for), King Beverages sold at a loss. Old faithful investments like Almasi, KWAL, GM sold off.


@VVS you better read the signs that tough economic times are catching up with Centum and adjust accordingly.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly No stress. I am comfy in Centum at this discount. I am glad Centum provided for Amu. It should have done the same for Akiira.
Not all shots at a goal go in. Not all plays end up near the goal line.
Real Estate - This is suffering but there is a very low Debt:Equity for Centum and most is at (suffering) Two Rivers.
Sidian - Turnaround has started. Let's see what 4Q (Oct-Dec) brings.
Amu - Better late than never. This was needed. If anything can be salvaged, it will go straight to the bottomline.
King - Happens. I lost money on ARM but made it on KK. Even the legendary Buffett has his bad days.
GM/Isuzu - When did they sell this off? How much did they get?


Not my ideal share but market is very bullish on the stock. I have take a short term trade position at KShs 30.50. Targeting to exit at KShs 37.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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watesh
#39 Posted : Friday, December 06, 2019 5:40:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 992
Location: Kenya
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
muganda wrote:
Curiously:
Consolidated income statement +226%
Company income statement -273%

Gains on disposal of Almasi 2.6bn
Writedown on Amu Power -2.3bn

Net Asset Value per share down 4%



Centum is selling good assets to cover for losses from their risky investments.

People shouldn't be left dancing when the music stops.

That's not why they sold Almasi but they got a good price. The total gain was 18.6bn. The realized less unrealized gain = 2.6bn
It's a good move to provide for Amu given it is almost dead.


By that logic...BRK should be selling Coca Cola they bought at $2.45 and sold to help out Dexter or Tesco. That would be throwing good money after bad. Almasi has done well for Centum but they really aren’t the contrarian investors they want everyone to believe. The economy is on the down. It’s now that we we will see who has been swimming naked as the waves recede

Let's break it down.

Dexter - If I recall, was bought for shares not using debt so there is no need to sell an asset to repay any loan/s due for Dexter. I think BRK has taken provisions/impairments on Dexter. Why do you think BRK needs to help Dexter?
Tesco - The shares were sold and loss was booked. Why do you think BRK needs to help Tesco when it is not a subsidiary?

Coke - There is a huge capital gains liability upon the sale of Coke shares. The reinvestment has to provide similar ROI to holding Coke. The sale of such a huge stake could depress prices unless BRK can find a large enough buyer at the right price.


U digress. We are talking about Centum comparing their selling of almasi to rejuvenate Amu (profit making entity to help out a crappy investment)
I kif up.


Centum says "don't look at the cashflows,look at NAV".

Now the NAV is eroded by 4%.
Real estate is a struggling, Sidian is struggling, Amu is written off (oh provided for), King Beverages sold at a loss. Old faithful investments like Almasi, KWAL, GM sold off.


@VVS you better read the signs that tough economic times are catching up with Centum and adjust accordingly.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly No stress. I am comfy in Centum at this discount. I am glad Centum provided for Amu. It should have done the same for Akiira.
Not all shots at a goal go in. Not all plays end up near the goal line.
Real Estate - This is suffering but there is a very low Debt:Equity for Centum and most is at (suffering) Two Rivers.
Sidian - Turnaround has started. Let's see what 4Q (Oct-Dec) brings.
Amu - Better late than never. This was needed. If anything can be salvaged, it will go straight to the bottomline.
King - Happens. I lost money on ARM but made it on KK. Even the legendary Buffett has his bad days.
GM/Isuzu - When did they sell this off? How much did they get?


Not my ideal share but market is very bullish on the stock. I have take a short term trade position at KShs 30.50. Targeting to exit at KShs 37.


Their NAC is over 70 so you still have a lot of headroom. Their real estate business has been undervalued. Share price might go up once their sales start being factored into the income statemwnt. From their confirmed sales, its good money.
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VituVingiSana
#40 Posted : Friday, December 06, 2019 8:08:38 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
muganda wrote:
Curiously:
Consolidated income statement +226%
Company income statement -273%

Gains on disposal of Almasi 2.6bn
Writedown on Amu Power -2.3bn

Net Asset Value per share down 4%



Centum is selling good assets to cover for losses from their risky investments.

People shouldn't be left dancing when the music stops.

That's not why they sold Almasi but they got a good price. The total gain was 18.6bn. The realized less unrealized gain = 2.6bn
It's a good move to provide for Amu given it is almost dead.


By that logic...BRK should be selling Coca Cola they bought at $2.45 and sold to help out Dexter or Tesco. That would be throwing good money after bad. Almasi has done well for Centum but they really aren’t the contrarian investors they want everyone to believe. The economy is on the down. It’s now that we we will see who has been swimming naked as the waves recede

Let's break it down.

Dexter - If I recall, was bought for shares not using debt so there is no need to sell an asset to repay any loan/s due for Dexter. I think BRK has taken provisions/impairments on Dexter. Why do you think BRK needs to help Dexter?
Tesco - The shares were sold and loss was booked. Why do you think BRK needs to help Tesco when it is not a subsidiary?

Coke - There is a huge capital gains liability upon the sale of Coke shares. The reinvestment has to provide similar ROI to holding Coke. The sale of such a huge stake could depress prices unless BRK can find a large enough buyer at the right price.


U digress. We are talking about Centum comparing their selling of almasi to rejuvenate Amu (profit making entity to help out a crappy investment)
I kif up.


Centum says "don't look at the cashflows,look at NAV".

Now the NAV is eroded by 4%.
Real estate is a struggling, Sidian is struggling, Amu is written off (oh provided for), King Beverages sold at a loss. Old faithful investments like Almasi, KWAL, GM sold off.


@VVS you better read the signs that tough economic times are catching up with Centum and adjust accordingly.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly No stress. I am comfy in Centum at this discount. I am glad Centum provided for Amu. It should have done the same for Akiira.
Not all shots at a goal go in. Not all plays end up near the goal line.
Real Estate - This is suffering but there is a very low Debt:Equity for Centum and most is at (suffering) Two Rivers.
Sidian - Turnaround has started. Let's see what 4Q (Oct-Dec) brings.
Amu - Better late than never. This was needed. If anything can be salvaged, it will go straight to the bottomline.
King - Happens. I lost money on ARM but made it on KK. Even the legendary Buffett has his bad days.
GM/Isuzu - When did they sell this off? How much did they get?


Not my ideal share but market is very bullish on the stock. I have take a short term trade position at KShs 30.50. Targeting to exit at KShs 37.
Kigeugeu but all are welcome. Laughing out loudly

You said "GM sold off" - When did this happen? How much did Centum get from the sale. Please share so I can update my model. Thanks.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, December 06, 2019 8:10 PM | Reason: Not specified
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