Wazua
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Madness at the NSE
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Bank stocks reacting to the news ATM @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:I agree that at some point they will bow down to the markets especially if USD bulls rage. But it is viable politically, socially and economically to hold things constant for a decade to allow for the debt binge to balance off. Treasury's kick-the-can strategy on debt shows this as more likely.
The biggest casualty will be the poor and the emerging middle class who will stagnate for a decade because of low employment and stagnant wages. However, given the docile nature of kenya's middle class it will have little consequence for the power elite. They can pull it off. Wanjiku is easily taken in by propaganda as @Angel puts it. A decade? My guesstimate is one year tops before the market shows the way. Bond yields may have already bottomed if what is happening in the Japanese bond and US REPO markets is any kind of indicator. Overall, after retesting and exceeding the 2016 lows, negative yielding bonds are now retreating and it could be a short ride up if this is a liquidity shortage. You called it @Lochaz-index @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: Bank stocks reacting to the news ATM
So far only KCB and Equity bank share prices reacting,the rest are mute. I&M on the loosing end Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo. Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo. Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction. Can you post the full memo here or provide a link Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo. Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction. Seconded. @SPT that low of 2420 will hold for now but it will be broken down the road. The NSE20 will conjure up a rally after the cap is lifted but I don't envisage it going beyond 3000. Still a traders market through 2020. KE is still hurtling towards an economic shit storm which can't be undone by fiat or a stroke of the pen. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo. Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction. I am not a TA, however, i have noticed general lack of supply in most stocks over the recent past(6 months)and reduced turnover hinting that perhaps we have bottomed-out. I am keen to know how low the NSE20 can go as you seem to suggest. Can it go sub 1500 points? If it goes sub 1500 what will be the price of KCB or Equity or Safaricom etc shares? . Is there a possibility of seeing KCB at sub 17 bob or Safaricom at sub 12 bob? Will Britam trade at 3bob? I strongly doubt the index will go any lower than 2420.Also, you will notice that most companies posted improved numbers HY2019 and there were less profit warnings. Most tier 1 banks performed very well and are highly likely to post better results FY2019 that previously posted pre-rate cap. The bear is good. I want it to last a little longer so that i can cement my positions. Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo. Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction. Seconded. @SPT that low of 2420 will hold for now but it will be broken down the road. The NSE20 will conjure up a rally after the cap is lifted but I don't envisage it going beyond 3000. Still a traders market through 2020. KE is still hurtling towards an economic shit storm which can't be undone by fiat or a stroke of the pen. Are you suggesting that rate cap is not a significant factor in the slow growth the nation has experienced in the past 3 years and that repealing it will not resuscitate my ailing portfolio? Are you saying that there is a boogy man still lurking around? Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Fyatu wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo. Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction. Seconded. @SPT that low of 2420 will hold for now but it will be broken down the road. The NSE20 will conjure up a rally after the cap is lifted but I don't envisage it going beyond 3000. Still a traders market through 2020. KE is still hurtling towards an economic shit storm which can't be undone by fiat or a stroke of the pen. Are you suggesting that rate cap is not a significant factor in the slow growth the nation has experienced in the past 3 years and that repealing it will not resuscitate my ailing portfolio? Are you saying that there is a boogy man still lurking around? The financial sector at the NSE will rally somewhat HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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obiero wrote:Fyatu wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo. Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction. Seconded. @SPT that low of 2420 will hold for now but it will be broken down the road. The NSE20 will conjure up a rally after the cap is lifted but I don't envisage it going beyond 3000. Still a traders market through 2020. KE is still hurtling towards an economic shit storm which can't be undone by fiat or a stroke of the pen. Are you suggesting that rate cap is not a significant factor in the slow growth the nation has experienced in the past 3 years and that repealing it will not resuscitate my ailing portfolio? Are you saying that there is a boogy man still lurking around? The financial sector at the NSE will rally somewhat It is not a question of if but when ....to quote Dr. Opus Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Fyatu wrote:obiero wrote:Fyatu wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo. Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction. Seconded. @SPT that low of 2420 will hold for now but it will be broken down the road. The NSE20 will conjure up a rally after the cap is lifted but I don't envisage it going beyond 3000. Still a traders market through 2020. KE is still hurtling towards an economic shit storm which can't be undone by fiat or a stroke of the pen. Are you suggesting that rate cap is not a significant factor in the slow growth the nation has experienced in the past 3 years and that repealing it will not resuscitate my ailing portfolio? Are you saying that there is a boogy man still lurking around? The financial sector at the NSE will rally somewhat It is not a question of if but when ....to quote Dr. Opus Coop share price getting a dip Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. Kcb, Cooperative bank, Equity bank saw share price appreciation with net foreign selling Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Ericsson wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. Kcb, Cooperative bank, Equity bank saw share price appreciation with net foreign selling Some see this as the last chance to get out without a huge haircut before things get worse.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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whiteowl wrote:Ericsson wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor..... Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho. Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%. Kcb, Cooperative bank, Equity bank saw share price appreciation with net foreign selling Some see this as the last chance to get out without a huge haircut before things get worse. Some? Who are these?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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One of the reasons I'm watching NSE from the sidelines Quote:For every Sh100 that Kenya collected as taxes in the three months to September, it used Sh57 on debt payments, underlining the heavy burden of mounting government borrowing.
Data from the Treasury shows that Sh214.79 billion was used for loan repayments in the first quarter of the financial year, making it the single-largest expenditure in the period to September.
The repayments accounted for 57 percent of the Sh372 billion that the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) collected in taxes in the period under review, denying the State the cash it needs for projects like building roads, power plants and revamping the health sector. Quote:The debt payment in the quarter to September is 40 percent more than the Sh153 billion that taxpayers paid in a similar period a year earlier, when loan settlement costs took 46.7 percent of taxes. https://www.businessdail...20324-ei716mz/index.html
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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wukan wrote:One of the reasons I'm watching NSE from the sidelines Quote:For every Sh100 that Kenya collected as taxes in the three months to September, it used Sh57 on debt payments, underlining the heavy burden of mounting government borrowing.
Data from the Treasury shows that Sh214.79 billion was used for loan repayments in the first quarter of the financial year, making it the single-largest expenditure in the period to September.
The repayments accounted for 57 percent of the Sh372 billion that the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) collected in taxes in the period under review, denying the State the cash it needs for projects like building roads, power plants and revamping the health sector. Quote:The debt payment in the quarter to September is 40 percent more than the Sh153 billion that taxpayers paid in a similar period a year earlier, when loan settlement costs took 46.7 percent of taxes. https://www.businessdail...0324-ei716mz/index.html This is also an incentive for CBK to keep the shilling artificially strong.If the shilling weakens by a mere 5%, that would result in 300 billion more to pay With the current 6 trillion loan book since most loans are USD denominated.We're locked in a perpetual credit squeeze.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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The temporary rally seems to have come to a halt Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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