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tom_boy
#11 Posted : Friday, September 27, 2019 7:36:49 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
Fyatu wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I think hapa kuna story hatuelewi. Rain started beating them hard in HY2018 and the thrashing has been relentless. Its hard to decide which way they are headed. No moat. If things dont change, end yr will be a loss



I moped quite a chunk of this one when there was heavy supply at Kshs. 2.2 last year. Nowadays getting supply of even 10000 units is rare like a muhindi's grave(Kaburi la Baniani). The fundamentals here are strong. Wake me up when interest rate cap is repealed.


Why do you think fundamentals are strong.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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Fyatu
#12 Posted : Friday, September 27, 2019 8:42:20 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
tom_boy wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I think hapa kuna story hatuelewi. Rain started beating them hard in HY2018 and the thrashing has been relentless. Its hard to decide which way they are headed. No moat. If things dont change, end yr will be a loss



I moped quite a chunk of this one when there was heavy supply at Kshs. 2.2 last year. Nowadays getting supply of even 10000 units is rare like a muhindi's grave(Kaburi la Baniani). The fundamentals here are strong. Wake me up when interest rate cap is repealed.


Why do you think fundamentals are strong.



1. FTGH products are being sold in most supermarkets and cosmetic shops.(You can check at your local supermarket tomorrow if you doubt this).

2. The population is growing. FTGH also manufactures in Ethiopia

3. Cosmetic and beauty market is big business and just like food, cosmetics will always have buyers. Elementary business education describes food,shelter and clothing as basic needs. Cosmetics and beauty are also basic needs.

4. Top-line has been growing year-in year-out for the past three years.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, September 27, 2019 8:43 PM | Reason: Not specified
tom_boy
#13 Posted : Friday, September 27, 2019 8:59:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
Fyatu wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I think hapa kuna story hatuelewi. Rain started beating them hard in HY2018 and the thrashing has been relentless. Its hard to decide which way they are headed. No moat. If things dont change, end yr will be a loss



I moped quite a chunk of this one when there was heavy supply at Kshs. 2.2 last year. Nowadays getting supply of even 10000 units is rare like a muhindi's grave(Kaburi la Baniani). The fundamentals here are strong. Wake me up when interest rate cap is repealed.


Why do you think fundamentals are strong.



1. FTGH products are being sold in most supermarkets and cosmetic shops.(You can check at your local supermarket tomorrow if you doubt this).

2. The population is growing. FTGH also manufactures in Ethiopia

3. Cosmetic and beauty market is big business and just like food, cosmetics will always have buyers. Elementary business education describes food,shelter and clothing as basic needs. Cosmetics and beauty are also basic needs.

4. Top-line has been growing year-in year-out for the past three years.


Hapo kwa topline is not true. Sales have been flat since 2017.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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Fyatu
#14 Posted : Friday, September 27, 2019 9:26:47 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Quote:


Hapo kwa topline is not true. Sales have been flat since 2017.



You are right...the past 3 years have been just a rough patch with the demise of a major retailer like Nakumatt. I would be more worried if there was a steady decline in the topline. The future is bright with Ethiopia operations.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Saturday, September 28, 2019 10:40:57 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Fyatu wrote:
Quote:


Hapo kwa topline is not true. Sales have been flat since 2017.

You are right...the past 3 years have been just a rough patch with the demise of a major retailer like Nakumatt. I would be more worried if there was a steady decline in the topline. The future is bright with Ethiopia operations.
These businesses take time to mature and require a lot of hard work and cash in the early years.

Acquire (or rent) land.
Build a factory and warehouse. (Or rent)
Equip the factory. Working capital. Hire and train staff.
Retail availability has to be established.
Build up the brands.
Sell and collect money/debts.

All this in a country with volatile dynamics. I think there is an election coming up and it could be divisive.

BUT the CEO has a lot of skin in the game.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Fyatu
#16 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2019 11:19:37 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Fyatu wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I think hapa kuna story hatuelewi. Rain started beating them hard in HY2018 and the thrashing has been relentless. Its hard to decide which way they are headed. No moat. If things dont change, end yr will be a loss



I moped quite a chunk of this one when there was heavy supply at Kshs. 2.2 last year. Nowadays getting supply of even 10000 units is rare like a muhindi's grave(Kaburi la Baniani). The fundamentals here are strong. Wake me up when interest rate cap is repealed.



Heavy supply is back at very affordable prices. Hurry while stocks last!!
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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cyruskulei
#17 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2019 11:35:28 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/9/2010
Posts: 320
Location: kenya
Fyatu wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I think hapa kuna story hatuelewi. Rain started beating them hard in HY2018 and the thrashing has been relentless. Its hard to decide which way they are headed. No moat. If things dont change, end yr will be a loss



I moped quite a chunk of this one when there was heavy supply at Kshs. 2.2 last year. Nowadays getting supply of even 10000 units is rare like a muhindi's grave(Kaburi la Baniani). The fundamentals here are strong. Wake me up when interest rate cap is repealed.



Heavy supply is back at very affordable prices. Hurry while stocks last!!


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Work hard at your job and you can make a living. Work hard on yourself and you can make a fortune.
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Receptor
#18 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 2:09:59 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/1/2019
Posts: 119
Another ARM cement kind of situation loading.....run for your wife
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sparkly
#19 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 10:27:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Receptor wrote:
Another ARM cement kind of situation loading.....run for your wife


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Life is short. Live passionately.
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VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 11:11:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Receptor wrote:
Another ARM cement kind of situation loading.....run for your wife


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Laughing out loudly
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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