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Kenya Economy Watch
MugundaMan
#2221 Posted : Wednesday, September 18, 2019 5:43:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
wukan wrote:


GDP figures are too much noise. See for example insurance premiums
Quote:
Nairobi has cemented its status as the largest source of insurance premiums, pointing to the growing unexploited markets outside the capital city.

The county took up an estimated 80.67 percent of total premiums in 2018, up from 72.76 percent the previous year, despite contributing only 21.7 percent to national wealth.

Latest data from Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA) shows Nairobi handed insurers Sh173.2 billion premiums while the other 46 counties fetched them a combined Sh41.5 billion.
https://www.businessdail...74818-3ucl3l/index.html


I prefer anecdotal evidence instead of those GoK and world bank statistics. Kenya power annual report on electricity consumption also tells you those county GDP figures are useful like yesterdays weather report.

In Hong Kong they were historically hostile about keeping economic data. Keeping economic statistics is useful for planned socialist economies. In free market data is constant motion.


Laughing out loudly
MugundaMan
#2222 Posted : Wednesday, September 18, 2019 5:58:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Muthungu biker says Kenya is the Best Country in Afrika

https://www.the-star.co....-africa-global-tourist/

Quote:
“Everything seems to be available here and it's more developed. There is no problem with communication because the official language is English and the roads are generally in good condition,” she said.

“During my 4-week stay in Kenya, I did my best to experience it all and caught up with so many peeps like nowhere before.”



She has seen many countries so she knows what she is talking about. Most Kenyans who have been away in the USA for decades who come back are actually shocked by the extremely high standard of living in Kenya for the middle classes and above.
MugundaMan
#2223 Posted : Friday, September 20, 2019 8:18:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)


Wooi Kenya will soon have more billionaires than Nigeria which has a population almost 3 times its size. And i'm not saying I support corrupt people. I am saying it from the perspective that economically, the number of billionaires in any economy directly correlates with the size of the middle class in that economy. Kenya has an OVERSIZE middle class for its numbers compared to most African countries, and that middle class is the bedrock of any booming economy for obvious reasons : self-sustaining domestic demand. This is why those hoping for an economic "downturn" any time soon might be waiting for Godot.
MugundaMan
#2224 Posted : Friday, September 20, 2019 8:38:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)


Woi. Second fastest growing cargo airport in the WORLD. Sour grapes for the doomsayers!Laughing out loudly
MugundaMan
#2225 Posted : Friday, September 20, 2019 8:48:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)


Woi, Baringo-Silali strikes steam. First new steamfield outside the traditional Menengai/Olkaria area. Cheap 3000 MW additional energy coming for Kenya.

"Perhaps this is the biggest story coming out of this country moving forward." -- William Kamket, MP Tiaty.

Poor doomsayers! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
sparkly
#2226 Posted : Friday, September 20, 2019 9:12:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
MugundaMan wrote:


Wooi Kenya will soon have more billionaires than Nigeria which has a population almost 3 times its size. And i'm not saying I support corrupt people. I am saying it from the perspective that economically, the number of billionaires in any economy directly correlates with the size of the middle class in that economy. Kenya has an OVERSIZE middle class for its numbers compared to most African countries, and that middle class is the bedrock of any booming economy for obvious reasons : self-sustaining domestic demand. This is why those hoping for an economic "downturn" any time soon might be waiting for Godot.


Kenya Fourth, Kidero graft case side by side...
Life is short. Live passionately.
Ericsson
#2227 Posted : Saturday, September 21, 2019 8:07:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,678
Location: NAIROBI
https://www.standardmedi...idge-and-dongo-kundu-sez
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#2228 Posted : Monday, September 23, 2019 11:05:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,678
Location: NAIROBI
https://www.businessdail...83750-ufjj0k/index.html

The firm last week issued the 136 supervisors and managers with dismissal notices, although it has also revealed plans to rehire some of them on 40 percent of their previous pay.

Junior staff will be dismissed later once the EAPCC sells two parcels of land amounting to 2,000 acres in the firm’s quest to cut workforce by a quarter from the current 800 employees.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#2229 Posted : Tuesday, September 24, 2019 3:23:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,097
Location: Nairobi
MugundaMan wrote:
When all else fails, retreat to the asinine thoughts of Kenya's CHIEF DOOMSAYER David Ndii Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Isn't this the same nut who told us Kenya would collapse "soon" well over 5 years ago. Waaaaaaapi? And the same "economist" who DEMANDED profits from a public good Laughing out loudly ?
How many millions of shillings in profits has Thika Superhighway given us?

As I said. WAKE US UP when

a) ANY of David Ndii's predictions come true
b) The #RedHawtt Kenyan economy dips below a 5% growth rate any time soon smile

Shalom.
Ndii seems to have nailed it on the SGR. I await the audited financial statements.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
MugundaMan
#2230 Posted : Tuesday, September 24, 2019 7:56:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
VVS,
The day Oxford Ndii will ever be proved right is the day John Maynard Keynes will roll over in his grave. 10 years from now when SGR is at Kisangani and Juba and SGR II is well on its way from Lamu to Lodwar, Ndii will still be crying that SGR and Kenya in general will "collapse soon."Laughing out loudly
VituVingiSana
#2231 Posted : Tuesday, September 24, 2019 6:52:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,097
Location: Nairobi
Lolest! wrote:
Bitange Ndemo wrote:
As media fills its pages with tough questions, it doesn’t take a genius to know that consumer spending is up. The country is bourgeoning with global brands in new malls, making our neighbours happy with huge food imports in excess of $1 billion in the first six months as well as changing lifestyle with more people increasingly eating outside the home as new global restaurants scamper for space to whet our increasing appetites for foreign foods.

What is going on? These contradictions make it harder for any economist to predict whether we are headed for a recession or economic boom.

If the economy is doing great as reflected in the GDP growth and we are petulant, then we are missing the opportunities that foreigners are seeing.
Two malls, Sarit and Village Market, have expanded their facilities and virtually all the spaces have been taken by global brands. At least four new malls have sprung up also housing several international brands, these brands don’t just randomly invest in emerging markets.

They do a lot of research beyond economic indicators like GDP per capita.

While we grumble that the government has not made us to think, non-Kenyans are seeing opportunity and exploiting it sometimes using inputs from their own countries.
We must be part of the solution to economic performance. In essence, we should wake up and exploit emerging opportunities.

The government cannot direct private citizens to areas of opportunity. It is the private citizen who takes the risk and exploits the opportunity and only seeks government assistance if there are unfair practices in the markets.
While most businesspeople simply duplicate enterprises their neighbours have built, there is need to helping others start imitating new business models of foreign enterprises. Asia’s Newly Industrialised economies faked their way until they started to innovate on their own.

When citizens and the media grumble and foreign entities continue to enjoy the benefits of economic expansion, we are failing to understand our economy and exploit available opportunities.


Ndemo is blowing hot air unless this is a sarcastic article/view.
1) A few malls catering to the 5% of NAIROBI's economy does not mean the country is doing well. I have shares in Centum but even I admit the foot traffic at Two Rivers on a weekday is d'oh!

2) Food imports over $1bn+? Who is buying the fancy cheeses and grapes in Carrefour? 95% of Kenyans? Or the Europeans spending their Euros on European foods?

3) Four new malls selling a lot foreign goods. Not 4 new factories making goods for export. The Japanese should employ BN to jumpstart their economy.

4) Does BN want us to produce fake goods? Who will we sell them to? The Chinese/Bagladeshi/Indians sell us fake medicines. In his view, is it better we manufacture and sell ourselves fake meds?

And most of all... has this guy run a real Biashara?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#2232 Posted : Tuesday, September 24, 2019 6:58:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,097
Location: Nairobi
MugundaMan wrote:
VVS,
The day Oxford Ndii will ever be proved right is the day John Maynard Keynes will roll over in his grave. 10 years from now when SGR is at Kisangani and Juba and SGR II is well on its way from Lamu to Lodwar, Ndii will still be crying that SGR and Kenya in general will "collapse soon."Laughing out loudly
Let's discuss facts vs innuendo.
OK but so far (1 year on) Ndii has been right, no?
JMK might have rolled 36 degrees. Sure we can wait another 9 years for the full 360.

Just as a FYI, we do subsidize the SGR in many ways that aren't shown as subsidies in SGR's financials.

1) Forced movement of goods by SGR vs the old railway and trucks. It's like forcing people to live in Kiambu even though DC might be cheaper.
Flying KQ instead of Fly540.
2) Railway Development Levy on lorries and fuel ironically to support the SGR which is a competitor. That's like you paying property tax on your flats in DC to subsidize someone building flats in Kiambu!
Or taxing fuel used by Fly540 and giving the money to KQ to fly the same route!
3) Was there a feasibility study for MSA-KSM/Malaba? If yes, where is it?
If the SGR's feasibility study showed it made sense then it seems rather short-sighted to stop the SGR at Naivasha.
Please bear in mind the whole deal seems to have been single sourced from China from the (unreleased?) feasibility study (MSA-NBO) to construction to financing. Win-Win for the Chinese.

4) Kisangani in 10 years (2029)? I am ready to take a bet lakini how will we settle it?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#2233 Posted : Tuesday, September 24, 2019 8:23:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,678
Location: NAIROBI
@vvs
You are better off ignoring the chap,some things are so obvious and don't need explanations
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#2234 Posted : Tuesday, September 24, 2019 8:40:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,097
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
@vvs
You are better off ignoring the chap,some things are so obvious and don't need explanations
He is far more entertaining than @qw or @obiero Laughing out loudly
That said, there is a lot of sense he says as far as investing - property or stocks - is concerned. It's just that I will not pick one over the other without trying to compare the pros and cons.

I do not like to directly manage some projects esp construction. Buying a developed property at anything but a distressed price may not be a bargain. I have been in both situations and it is NOT my thing. Some enjoy kugombana na contractors, suppliers, funds, etc. Not me.

I would have preferred renting vs buying a house but for family reasons/pressure. I was happy to move if I did not like a place for any number of reasons from location, noise, neighbors, crime, convenience, etc.

MM has a wonderful neighbor who borrows his gardenias. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Enemies of MM should make friends with the neighbor Laughing out loudly
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Monk
#2235 Posted : Wednesday, September 25, 2019 7:07:07 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 256
VituVingiSana wrote:
MugundaMan wrote:
VVS,
The day Oxford Ndii will ever be proved right is the day John Maynard Keynes will roll over in his grave. 10 years from now when SGR is at Kisangani and Juba and SGR II is well on its way from Lamu to Lodwar, Ndii will still be crying that SGR and Kenya in general will "collapse soon."Laughing out loudly
Let's discuss facts vs innuendo.
OK but so far (1 year on) Ndii has been right, no?
JMK might have rolled 36 degrees. Sure we can wait another 9 years for the full 360.

Just as a FYI, we do subsidize the SGR in many ways that aren't shown as subsidies in SGR's financials.

1) Forced movement of goods by SGR vs the old railway and trucks. It's like forcing people to live in Kiambu even though DC might be cheaper.
Flying KQ instead of Fly540.
2) Railway Development Levy on lorries and fuel ironically to support the SGR which is a competitor. That's like you paying property tax on your flats in DC to subsidize someone building flats in Kiambu!
Or taxing fuel used by Fly540 and giving the money to KQ to fly the same route!
3) Was there a feasibility study for MSA-KSM/Malaba? If yes, where is it?
If the SGR's feasibility study showed it made sense then it seems rather short-sighted to stop the SGR at Naivasha.
Please bear in mind the whole deal seems to have been single sourced from China from the (unreleased?) feasibility study (MSA-NBO) to construction to financing. Win-Win for the Chinese.

4) Kisangani in 10 years (2029)? I am ready to take a bet lakini how will we settle it?


A Kibaki era minister from the happy valley announced to the whole world that they had the Chinese contractor do the feasibility study. Strange that an educated man, and a whole minister at that, couldn't or chose no to see the conflict of interest.
Ericsson
#2236 Posted : Wednesday, September 25, 2019 10:21:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,678
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@vvs
You are better off ignoring the chap,some things are so obvious and don't need explanations
He is far more entertaining than @qw or @obiero Laughing out loudly
That said, there is a lot of sense he says as far as investing - property or stocks - is concerned. It's just that I will not pick one over the other without trying to compare the pros and cons.

I do not like to directly manage some projects esp construction. Buying a developed property at anything but a distressed price may not be a bargain. I have been in both situations and it is NOT my thing. Some enjoy kugombana na contractors, suppliers, funds, etc. Not me.

I would have preferred renting vs buying a house but for family reasons/pressure. I was happy to move if I did not like a place for any number of reasons from location, noise, neighbors, crime, convenience, etc.

MM has a wonderful neighbor who borrows his gardenias. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Enemies of MM should make friends with the neighbor Laughing out loudly


A good investment is where you balance the two,I wouldn't say property is good ,stocks are bad and vice versa.Most of the time you'll find the output of one is the input of the other..
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
MugundaMan
#2237 Posted : Wednesday, September 25, 2019 10:41:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
VituVingiSana wrote:
MugundaMan wrote:
VVS,
The day Oxford Ndii will ever be proved right is the day John Maynard Keynes will roll over in his grave. 10 years from now when SGR is at Kisangani and Juba and SGR II is well on its way from Lamu to Lodwar, Ndii will still be crying that SGR and Kenya in general will "collapse soon."Laughing out loudly
Let's discuss facts vs innuendo.
OK but so far (1 year on) Ndii has been right, no?
JMK might have rolled 36 degrees. Sure we can wait another 9 years for the full 360.

Just as a FYI, we do subsidize the SGR in many ways that aren't shown as subsidies in SGR's financials.

1) Forced movement of goods by SGR vs the old railway and trucks. It's like forcing people to live in Kiambu even though DC might be cheaper.
Flying KQ instead of Fly540.
2) Railway Development Levy on lorries and fuel ironically to support the SGR which is a competitor. That's like you paying property tax on your flats in DC to subsidize someone building flats in Kiambu!
Or taxing fuel used by Fly540 and giving the money to KQ to fly the same route!
3) Was there a feasibility study for MSA-KSM/Malaba? If yes, where is it?
If the SGR's feasibility study showed it made sense then it seems rather short-sighted to stop the SGR at Naivasha.
Please bear in mind the whole deal seems to have been single sourced from China from the (unreleased?) feasibility study (MSA-NBO) to construction to financing. Win-Win for the Chinese.

4) Kisangani in 10 years (2029)? I am ready to take a bet lakini how will we settle it?



VVS,
Like our good friend Oxford Ndii (who has his owners abroad in Britannia) I can tell that you are definitely an A student smile

I will ask you the same thing I would ask Ndii

1) Who said public goods are supposed to turn a profit? How much have we earned in profits from Uhuru Highway? Sasumua dam? Ruai Sewerage Works? And please do not mention politics or parties in your answer. Politicians can say anything at election time, they can even promise you laptops that fly you to the moon. SGR is an economic project that is a public good. How many trillions of shillings in economywide spillover benefits in terms of jobs created (over 40k in direct jobs in phase one construction alone), efficiencies generated, domestic tourist numbers in the coast boosted, etc etc -the list goes on and on- has SGR generated? Ndii is VERY QUIET when prodded to respond to this.

2) On debt. Who lied to Oxford Ndii that at the macro level an economy should not borrow to develop? Marshall Plan anyone? Financing of early America by the European banking dynasties anyone? Rebuilding of Japan after the war, anyone? Wake us up when GoK DEFAULTS on that debt, which so far, all the agencies domestically and abroad including the WB and IMF say is sustainable.. Especially given our red hawtt 5% GDP growth rates. BTW how did you guys think we are growing at such rates without both borrowing and SGR? By magic or michezo za kuigiza?Laughing out loudly

3) About sijui feasibility studies, RDL and forced use LOL! Have you been to other economies? They are WORSE monopolies that force their citizens to do all sorts of things. Obamacare for example is FORCED HEALTHCARE upende usipende. You can actually get fined for not enrolling. Yet I do not see Oxford Ndii complaining there. Try applying for KCB to have a license to open a branch in NYC ...waaaapiLaughing out loudly ? US Citizens are FORCED to use only allowable domestic banks. Look at the license to fly into NYC for KQ. How many decades did it take to come through? Even then, can KQ fly connecting flights to other US cities? Nope! Because the US population is FORCED by default and by law to monopolise domestic airlines. Whoever lied to you guys that such economies are capitalistic in nature deluded you. These economies are as socialist and anti-competition as it gets! But they have propagandised the world into thinking they are the beacons of not only capitalism and democracy but human rights (even as they detain without trial at Guantanamo Bay and block all foreign competition from competing in their domestic markets fairly.) Look at Europe and farm subsidies. Does that sound like capitalism to youLaughing out loudly ? Mambo za feasibility studies na RDL are small operational matters that are water under the bridge bradza. Much like those who complain all day that SGR seats are not comfy. You cannot please everybody all the time. Cha muhimu is that SGR continues to grow in volumes daily!

SGR will reach Kisangani and even beyond my buroddah. You have failed to see the bigger picture. SGR is not just a domestic project but a key plank of OBOR's master plan. Do not let the peni mbili news stories and media wailing fool ya. Remember when media cried for weeks that SGR was dead and would stop at Naivasha because Chinaman "refused" after PORK's "failed" visited to Beijing Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly waaapi? Oxford Ndii was VERY HAPPY with the news. Yet SGR will plow on all the way to Uganda and then Kisangani. Watch this space. We can settle with a mbuzi and I hope you won't deliver one of the "hardwood variety" smile

Shalom
MugundaMan
#2238 Posted : Wednesday, September 25, 2019 11:07:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
BAD NEWS for the doomsayers as LAPSSET surges on. Now if the doomsayers are busy crying about SGR which is as good as cast in stone, si they will wail buckets over this thing that is taking concrete shape each single passing day Laughing out loudly ?





Fyatu
#2239 Posted : Wednesday, September 25, 2019 11:19:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
MugundaMan wrote:
BAD NEWS for the doomsayers as LAPSSET surges on. Now if the doomsayers are busy crying about SGR which is as good as cast in stone, si they will wail buckets over this thing that is taking concrete shape each single passing day Laughing out loudly ?









I am a first hand witness of this project. People said that Jubilee will forget about LAPSSET once Mzee Kibaki is gone but alas the progress is there for all to see.

I am today making a call on Kuruwitu stock listed on NSE/casino. Kuruwitu sits on prime land hapo LAMU port. They have zero madeni on their books.Sooner or later the value of this zombie stock is gonna be unlocked violently.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
MugundaMan
#2240 Posted : Wednesday, September 25, 2019 11:32:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Fyatu wrote:


I am a first hand witness of this project. People said that Jubilee will forget about LAPSSET once Mzee Kibaki is gone but alas the progress is there for all to see.

I am today making a call on Kuruwitu stock listed on NSE/casino. Kuruwitu sits on prime land hapo LAMU port. They have zero madeni on their books.Sooner or later the value of this zombie stock is gonna be unlocked violently.


Laughing out loudly

Very funny. Good thinking but Kurwitu has not traded a single share in ages. Yet another mkora company that is typical in the casino. Perhaps that was the strategy of the geniuses behind it. Fleece the public at IPO, salt away those funds, then wait for the stock to drop, then rebuy everything and refuse to sell even one share. And to avert any suspicion from CMA, do not jack the ask price too high. Just leave it at a stable place for years as you wait for the LAPSETT land to appreciate in value.
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