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KCB Rights
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PKoli
#51 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 3:19:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@Proverb

Like someone pointed out earlier, the decision to buy KCB depends on one's investment horizon - long-term or short-term. Once you have decided on the value of the share, you go a head and buy. What you cannot tell for sure is whether the price will come down after rights shares are posted to the accounts. I would put a fair value of KCB ex-rights at KES 25, so I will want to pick the rights at 1 (18 in total) without winking!

If you are for speculation, wait.
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ProverB
#52 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 3:27:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
@pKoli..
True.

In assessing one's own risk..it's a fact you cannot erase whole risk..but you can minimise on it. My point is..reduce risk by minimising on unknown variables.. Fact is share supply will increas in market..fact is ..we cannot assume that demand will mop up the extra liquidity...neither can we say it will not..why not get rid of this market risk that totally has nothing to do with the company's fundamentals..and wait out..just a month before taking action?..atleast that is what i'd do..

Anyway..just thinking.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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PKoli
#53 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 3:34:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@Proverb,

I honestly think that actual risk lies in the fundamentals of the company, not the share supply in the market. Else safcom would be trading at 1 bob. It has been fairly priced at a pe of around 15.

I see your reasoning and my strategy will 3 quarters invest currently and a quarter wait for the supply.
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guru267
#54 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 3:37:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
PKoli wrote:
@Proverb,

I honestly think that actual risk lies in the fundamentals of the company, not the share supply in the market. Else safcom would be trading at 1 bob. It has been fairly priced at a pe of around 15.


very good observation... increase in supply wont change the companies fundamentals significantly
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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ProverB
#55 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 3:39:30 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
PKoli wrote:
@Proverb,

safcom would be trading at 1 bob. It has been fairly priced at a pe of around 15.

I see your reasoning and my strategy will 3 quarters invest currently and a quarter wait for the supply.


..safaricom is not changing share supply and the market took awhile to adjust to current volumes....KCB is changing supply with over 1 billion shares....regardless of investment principles.. supply and Demand MUST influence price..hence market MUST adjust to new volumes of KCB.. I think.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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guru267
#56 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 3:46:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
ProverB wrote:
..safaricom is not changing share supply and the market took awhile to adjust to current volumes....KCB is changing supply with over 1 billion shares....regardless of investment principles.. supply and Demand MUST influence price..hence market MUST adjust to new volumes of KCB.. I think.


first of all there are only 887million shares not over 1billion secondly with a P/E of 13.8 then how will the share fall??? because if it does fall then it will look cheap and hence attract loads of demand hence buoying the share price
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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ProverB
#57 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 3:51:11 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
guru267 wrote:
ProverB wrote:
..safaricom is not changing share supply and the market took awhile to adjust to current volumes....KCB is changing supply with over 1 billion shares....regardless of investment principles.. supply and Demand MUST influence price..hence market MUST adjust to new volumes of KCB.. I think.


first of all there are only 887million shares not over 1billion secondly with a P/E of 13.8 then how will the share fall??? because if it does fall then it will look cheap and hence attract loads of demand hence buoying the share price


Thanx for correction. I have an aversion to manipulating of volumes..especially fundamental. I will wait out on KCB..
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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the deal
#58 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 4:02:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Proverb if only you had a PHD in Gambling Sociology...and a Crytal ball for Merali or you were a Makmende like @Stocksmaster then you would buy those rights...
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ProverB
#59 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 4:15:53 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
the deal wrote:
@Proverb if only you had a PHD in Gambling Sociology...and a Crytal ball for Merali or you were a Makmende like @Stocksmaster then you would buy those rights...


deal..i think your comment just passed me by! smile
i don't get.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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the deal
#60 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 4:44:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
ProverB wrote:
the deal wrote:
@Proverb if only you had a PHD in Gambling Sociology...and a Crytal ball for Merali or you were a Makmende like @Stocksmaster then you would buy those rights...


deal..i think your comment just passed me by! smile
i don't get.

I mearnt to say theres too much risk if u buy the rights now...i.e referundum...
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