I agree!

No one misses Kibaki more than me

Would it have mattered if Kibaki was still president. The impulse wave started in in 2002 had to be corrected. You can't rig markets

[quote=Extraterrestrial]Meanwhile, here is a bullish view:

https://twitter.com/mose...164137733247373312?s=19[/quote]

he says "16 year low is like predicting crisis for Kenya....."
The truth is we cant rule out crisis if the government continue with the borrowing spree! we will reach a point where we are unable to service the debts, government will have no money to send to counties, strikes due to unpaid salaries will be the order of the day ( already happening in small scale), lenders will not be willing to lend us, already kra is harassing everybody even those paying taxes honestly and loading unnecessary fees and fines to their tax account, just try to get a tax clearance and you will be shocked and very lucky if your account is clean , in short a crisis is coming

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Dusty-storm-sweeps-through-Sh2trn/4259442-5242654-ng5vud/index.html
There is a dusty wind blowing up a storm through the dessert that is the floor of the Nairobi Securities Exchange.

The market that is supposed to hold Sh2.278 trillion, which is 30 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product has no takers sending down stock prices and wiping out billions of shillings in paper wealth.

Walking through its vacant isles, you see a ghost town with rickety store fronts, discoloured dead stock and owners sapped dry with only one distant corner of refuge where all the market players are huddled for safety of their last pieces of silver as they watch advance of the great drought on returns.

A review last week showed that when the market opened on Tuesday, after Eid ul Adha celebrations, 17 counters had zero transactions and 11 counters had transactions that were less than 1,000.

On Wednesday, the situation worsened as 21 counters went without trading while seven had less than 1,000 stocks exchanged.

The self sabotage on display from the fiscal side of GoK is downright idiotic. The state is rolling out what looks, smells and walks like a war on enterprise. Even the sturdiest of the blue chips aka safcom is unable to weather such an affront on businesses. To that end I expect the government to keep hiking excise and transactional tax on mpesa until something gives...ditto for real estate.

As if the laffer curve wasn't self evident GoK is steaming ahead in extracting - forcefully I might add - the last drop of tax from everything to the detriment of everyone including the state itself. Social unrest will soon follow in short order...political rapprochement be damned.

#Punchline

Me thinks we have a deep structural problem with our economy which Kibaki did not attempt to solve neither has Uhuru nor any other of the other leading lights. That's why we need a deep correction. Structurally the economy has moved on the same rails from 1900. It is still a dual economy-the formal and informal and they often don't move in tandem. Policy makers act clueless until it's too late.

See this example on investments by Rufus



We speak of the GFC low of 2360 to mean Kibaki escapes the blame yet fundamentally the lack of trickle down of the 2002-2007 impulse wave and resulting 2008 PEV hit the NSE harder necessitating a stimulus. From 2009-2011 NSE was really running on a sugar high therefore needing a more complex correction. To keep the sugar high we run another stimulus in form of debt financed infrastructural development. The market still continues to correct which you see in the collapse of private sector credit demand.

What structural adjustment of the economy do you think kibaki,uhuru, raila, ruto et.all would have delivered differently? None they all think the same-two sides of the same coin.

This is a local problem with little to do with global economics, the Rwandese for instance are winning!