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POOR TRANSACTION ADVISE-THE CASE OF KCB RIGHTS
Sasha
#11 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 12:50:21 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/5/2007
Posts: 627
Agree with stocksmaster on all but one. A bond issue woulda been very expensive. A rights issue was the easiest way to raise capital under the circumstances.

I had a similar discussion with some peers and we were of the consensus that the advisers were not fair to KCB on this one. Furthermore, the advisers do not seem to be moving with the trend looking at their criteria for setting the price of the rights. Without calling into question their credibility, I believe the advisers are made up of a banker, a CPA and a CPS. Why didn't KCB use advisers with more appropriate qualifications e.g. CFAs and actuaries. I'm not saying that SIB are not qualified to act as advisers but it just seems more prudent to have more CFAs and actuaries as advisers for rights issues.
the deal
#12 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 12:57:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Execution is the biggest problem with this share...Equity Bank has broken even in UG and Sudan them hakuna...so unless you buy this share as a BiGOFF the chances of u getting ur money back in the short term are nil...
Wa_ithaka
#13 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 1:54:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
I am not sure how you arrive at the conclusion that a bond would be more expensive given falling the t-bill rates.

Nothing from the rights issue prospectus has convinced me to upgrade my order price Ksh12.
KCB execution has been poor for a while and its noteworthy that none of its branch building outside Kenya is profitable yet.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 2:28:47 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,350
Location: Nairobi
I wonder why @sasha claims a bond offer would be expensive. @waithaka is correct coz long-term GoK bonds are trading at lows not seen since 2003.

KCB can raise the cash today at a decent rate. Cheaper issuance costs vs Rights Issue (too late now) coz most buyers are Insurance Firms, Banks & Pension Funds... So no need to print or distribute thousands of copies + commissions are lower...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
muganda
#15 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 2:50:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
@VVS, perhaps @Sasha is referring to arrangement fees. Noting that the same still do apply to a rights issue, new instrument+regulatory approval+underwriting costs for bond issue may have been moderately higher. Although NSE set bad precedent when they rejected BBK bond, ostensibly because it did not introduce new money into the country.

But HIGHER for WHO is the question? The stock price that should be at 22/= has found a new 17/=, a difference of 5.00

2,217M shares x -5.00 = 11 billion of market capitalisation lost; eerily close to the 15 billion they would like to raise. Very HIGH cost for ME as a shareholder

Obi 1 Kanobi
#16 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 3:06:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
I don't really know whether to go for this rights or not.

Question: If I take up my rights and many including GOK do not, and say 10% of the rights are taken (subject to the minimum set in the offer), then what happens, I would assume this will lead to lesser new shares going into the market, this inturn will icrease the value per share and I will have made a good decision

What are the chances of the post rights price per share going below 17, and why would they go below this amount.

Can the rights be sold below Sh. 17, during their trading period, what would be the business rationale since the minimum exercise price is 17.

Someone!!!
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 3:14:56 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,350
Location: Nairobi
Less than 50% means the Rights Issue has 'failed' & refunds will be issued BUT embarrassment + wasted fees to NSE, CMA, brokers, etc...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Sasha
#18 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 3:47:07 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/5/2007
Posts: 627
@VVS & Wa_ithaka: Historically, bond issues are always more expensive that rights issues. Whether to raise capital via a rights issue or a bond issue will vary depending on which shoe you wear. For a shareholder, a bond issue is better for obvious reasons. For the management, a rights issue is the cheaper and hustle-free option.

Remember that KCB are raising capital to strengthen their capital base and rein in those crazy operational costs. They have the highest cost to income ratio at 71%. If I was management, I wouldn't want to raise this capital by issuing a debt instrument that imposes obligations to make coupon payment after every so many months.

Like muganda says, the antecedant costs of issuing a bond are quite high compared to those of a rights issue. The initial costs on average hit about 2.5% of the amount being raised, ergo, it would cost KCB about Kshs 375 million just to have a bond issue. Add the annual costs payable to the NSE, the registrars and fiscal agents.
Obi 1 Kanobi
#19 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 3:49:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
VituVingiSana wrote:
Less than 50% means the Rights Issue has 'failed' & refunds will be issued BUT embarrassment + wasted fees to NSE, CMA, brokers, etc...


@VVS, could you respond to my other issues, say if 50% is taken up, i assume the takers will have made a good decision.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
muganda
#20 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 4:12:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Sasha wrote:
For a shareholder, a bond issue is better for obvious reasons. For the management, a rights issue is the cheaper and hustle-free option.


@Sasha, very well said. It's an ill wind that blows no good. 15 billion bond issue would have been raised and oversubscribed in a week. The management had no choice but to look out for other interests first.

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