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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#3081 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 2:15:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


For wave [c] of Y (see extreme right), we have completed green labelled waves (i)(ii)(iii) and (iv). The market appears to be now falling in a fifth wave (v) and is in fact accelerating downwards.

The distance between the end of wave (iv) @ about 3070 and my upper target of 1700 appears too long which could imply that wave (v) will extend. Additionally this also raises the possibility that wave [c] of Y (and the index at large) may bottom at the upper target of 1700 and not further below.

Using Fibonacci ratios(the guideline is that wave one through to the end of wave three should be in golden ratio proportions to wave five) then:

Wave (i) to (iii) = approx. 4060 - 2745 = 1315.
Targets using this guideline are:
1. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (0.5 X 1315) = 2408
2. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (0.618 X 1315) = 2252
3. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (1 X 1315) = 1750 Near our other target.
4. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (1.618 X 1315) = 937 which is very unlikely.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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wukan
#3082 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 3:50:01 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat
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mnandii
#3083 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 5:21:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
wukan wrote:
@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat


Hehe. Things should become more thick. As @hisa usually says sh*t will hit the fan
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3084 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 5:43:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Am into Oil also now. This one XTIUSD (West Texas Crude Oil). I expect the market to fall slightly in blue wave 4 to about 60 or 59 (the pink horizontal trend lines) then rise strongly in a fifth wave (remember commodities have explosive fifth waves). The target for the rise is about 70s and possibly 73s. See the white trend line for guidance.

Thereafter oil should fall strongly to below $40s per barrel toward $20s. Unbelievable? That's what Elliott says for now.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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VituVingiSana
#3085 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 6:52:56 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:


Am into Oil also now. This one XTIUSD (West Texas Crude Oil). I expect the market to fall slightly in blue wave 4 to about 60 or 59 (the pink horizontal trend lines) then rise strongly in a fifth wave (remember commodities have explosive fifth waves). The target for the rise is about 70s and possibly 73s. See the white trend line for guidance.

Thereafter oil should fall strongly to below $40s per barrel toward $20s. Unbelievable? That's what Elliott says for now.
It would be nice for us, as net consumers, to see oil between $20-40, in the near future.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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lochaz-index
#3086 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 7:20:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:


For wave [c] of Y (see extreme right), we have completed green labelled waves (i)(ii)(iii) and (iv). The market appears to be now falling in a fifth wave (v) and is in fact accelerating downwards.

The distance between the end of wave (iv) @ about 3070 and my upper target of 1700 appears too long which could imply that wave (v) will extend. Additionally this also raises the possibility that wave [c] of Y (and the index at large) may bottom at the upper target of 1700 and not further below.

Using Fibonacci ratios(the guideline is that wave one through to the end of wave three should be in golden ratio proportions to wave five) then:

Wave (i) to (iii) = approx. 4060 - 2745 = 1315.
Targets using this guideline are:
1. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (0.5 X 1315) = 2408
2. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (0.618 X 1315) = 2252
3. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (1 X 1315) = 1750 Near our other target.
4. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (1.618 X 1315) = 937 which is very unlikely.

Finally some action. Sideways markets are the worst. Death by a thousand cuts continues. Closed at 2695 today having broken out of its near 7 month consolidation range...10 year low back to 2009 levels in the aftermath of the GFC. Looking like a steep fall ahead before some brakes are applied. Waiting for the fiscal end of GoK to smell the coffee.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, May 14, 2019 7:27 PM | Reason: Not specified
lochaz-index
#3087 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 7:36:05 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:


Am into Oil also now. This one XTIUSD (West Texas Crude Oil). I expect the market to fall slightly in blue wave 4 to about 60 or 59 (the pink horizontal trend lines) then rise strongly in a fifth wave (remember commodities have explosive fifth waves). The target for the rise is about 70s and possibly 73s. See the white trend line for guidance.

Thereafter oil should fall strongly to below $40s per barrel toward $20s. Unbelievable? That's what Elliott says for now.

Agreed on this one too. Ever since that drop in crude prices in 2014, anything above 70$ pb has been a short for me. Puts paid to KE ambitions on that end too at least on a medium term basis.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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lochaz-index
#3088 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 7:40:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
wukan wrote:
@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat

Sub 2000 is coming but perhaps next year. This is not a smash and grab type of bear...kills you softly while offering a false sense of hope. It will be an interesting run of things from all spheres here on out.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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obiero
#3089 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 7:47:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,232
Location: nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat

Sub 2000 is coming but perhaps next year. This is not a smash and grab type of bear...kills you softly while offering a false sense of hope. It will be an interesting run of things from all spheres here on out.

It's a buyer's market. Selectively though.. Many monkeys on the loose including KENRE

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mufasa
#3090 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 9:05:08 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 238
Some Companies at the NSE are just pitfalls, designed to swallow your money..... Uchumi, KQ, HomeAfrika, Mumias, NBK actually just about any company that is intertwined with the Government in the running of its operations.

Anyway, if @mnandii's hypothesis is anything to go by, then this government will not get its act together within this election cycle.

We should probably discuss how to make money in a bear market.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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