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GLOBAL STOCKS
mchambuzi
#1 Posted : Saturday, January 04, 2014 10:55:47 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
US stocks to under perform this year? There a report that billionaires are dumping stocks fast, either to reduce exposure or profit taking.

Warren Buffett- complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods. He sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%.

Billionaire John Paulson- dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase

Billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

My take is that they are trying to reduce exposure to consumer related goods. Possibly positioning for more tapering which translate to Companies spending more money on borrowing costs than business expansion costs which equals lower profit margins, lower dividends, and less hiring. Plus, more layoffs.

That market looks way overdone, although markets do have a tendency of staying irrational longer that we can stay solvent. I think its time to shift focus to the Chinese stocks that are still trading below 2008 highs. They eased on the one child policy which might translate to more consumer demand and growth in companies.There have been gains in China’s manufacturing and export sectors. They also want to ease price controls for energy, water, telecom and other services.








On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
symbols
#2 Posted : Saturday, January 04, 2014 11:04:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
If I was a billionaire I'd be buying arable land,water,resource filled real estate and companies with plenty of patents.Real wealth.
gatoho
#3 Posted : Saturday, January 04, 2014 11:09:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 504
Location: kandara, Murang'a
I have all of 17 microsoft Shares and got 2 $4 divindeds.. Up 15% pricewise too?
Foresight..
mchambuzi
#4 Posted : Saturday, January 04, 2014 11:20:45 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
symbols wrote:
If I was a billionaire I'd be buying arable land,water,resource filled real estate and companies with plenty of patents.Real wealth.

I think they do have investments there, but if you are the guys bailing out banks and corporates and have enough money to oil wheels of the companies you invest in, I would also invest in the financial markets, there is a lot of money to be made there and considerably lower risks since you are investing in companies aready profitabe. Buffet recently started venturing into derivatives as well and their wealth has been growing steadily. Compare with the Brazillian billionaire swimming in debts after venturing into oil mining offshore(physical assets). His debts now exceed assets from around 30billion net-worth. He is already having issues calming down investors.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
mchambuzi
#5 Posted : Saturday, January 04, 2014 11:37:10 PM
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Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
gatoho wrote:
I have all of 17 microsoft Shares and got 2 $4 divindeds.. Up 15% pricewise too?

Personally, I just don't like how the company is always playing catch up to the rest of the players. The vice president offloaded some shares on 2nd in a sale disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. Technically it remains bullish as long as it continues holding above 36.40 on the weekly. I prefer to continue betting on apple this year and am looking for a buy dip opportunity hoping this short-term potential double top doesn't materialize.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
symbols
#6 Posted : Saturday, January 04, 2014 11:43:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
mchambuzi wrote:
symbols wrote:
If I was a billionaire I'd be buying arable land,water,resource filled real estate and companies with plenty of patents.Real wealth.

I think they do have investments there, but if you are the guys bailing out banks and corporates and have enough money to oil wheels of the companies you invest in, I would also invest in the financial markets, there is a lot of money to be made there and considerably lower risks since you are investing in companies aready profitabe. Buffet recently started venturing into derivatives as well and their wealth has been growing steadily. Compare with the Brazillian billionaire swimming in debts after venturing into oil mining offshore(physical assets). His debts now exceed assets from around 30billion net-worth. He is already having issues calming down investors.


No doubt,valid points but on a global scale China has been consistent in those areas(even in the US) and their influence supersedes that of billionaires.Considering China wants to cement its position in the global play-field and still wants to maintain some form of stability on the local front,those would be safe assets in a boom or bust.
guru267
#7 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 11:11:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,654
Location: Nairobi
Many Chinese stocks trade at 100+ P/E Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mchambuzi
#8 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 10:23:56 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Interesting take from Soros http://www.theguardian.c...e-slowdown-biggest-worry
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
hisah
#9 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 10:43:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
Many Chinese stocks trade at 100+ P/E Sad

A lot of global equities are frothy. I'm one concerned trader and risk management is now my highest priority going forward. Easy money phase is fast running out...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mchambuzi
#10 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 11:07:25 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Many Chinese stocks trade at 100+ P/E Sad

A lot of global equities are frothy. I'm one concerned trader and risk management is now my highest priority going forward. Easy money phase is fast running out...

Which country do you think will experience the most robust growth 2014? I thought it would be China, but the debt concerns are worrying. New Zealand maybe?
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
hisah
#11 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 10:16:22 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mchambuzi wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Many Chinese stocks trade at 100+ P/E Sad

A lot of global equities are frothy. I'm one concerned trader and risk management is now my highest priority going forward. Easy money phase is fast running out...

Which country do you think will experience the most robust growth 2014? I thought it would be China, but the debt concerns are worrying. New Zealand maybe?

Credit markets are showing signs of tightness. For now hard to tell which country will breeze through. Equities don't perform well when the credit mart behaves this way. Volatility will likely be plenty this year with minimal gains or losses for many portfolios without proper risk management. A comfy play is to hedge in undervalued counters to avoid the likely volatility.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mchambuzi
#12 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 10:31:29 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
hisah wrote:
mchambuzi wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Many Chinese stocks trade at 100+ P/E Sad

A lot of global equities are frothy. I'm one concerned trader and risk management is now my highest priority going forward. Easy money phase is fast running out...

Which country do you think will experience the most robust growth 2014? I thought it would be China, but the debt concerns are worrying. New Zealand maybe?

Credit markets are showing signs of tightness. For now hard to tell which country will breeze through. Equities don't perform well when the credit mart behaves this way. Volatility will likely be plenty this year with minimal gains or losses for many portfolios without proper risk management. A comfy play is to hedge in undervalued counters to avoid the likely volatility.


I agree with you. I am just hoping the expected slowdown in Chinese economy will not affect global markets as adversely as some investors are speculating. China as well needs to look into their real estate markets and provide alternative investments streams, otherwise when their bubble busts, it going to be really bad for emerging economies and other economies as well. Volatility is great for returns, money management is the tricky bit.


On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
Candlesticks
#13 Posted : Tuesday, January 07, 2014 7:59:18 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2013
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
mchambuzi wrote:
hisah wrote:
mchambuzi wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Many Chinese stocks trade at 100+ P/E Sad

A lot of global equities are frothy. I'm one concerned trader and risk management is now my highest priority going forward. Easy money phase is fast running out...

Which country do you think will experience the most robust growth 2014? I thought it would be China, but the debt concerns are worrying. New Zealand maybe?

Credit markets are showing signs of tightness. For now hard to tell which country will breeze through. Equities don't perform well when the credit mart behaves this way. Volatility will likely be plenty this year with minimal gains or losses for many portfolios without proper risk management. A comfy play is to hedge in undervalued counters to avoid the likely volatility.



I agree with you. I am just hoping the expected slowdown in Chinese economy will not affect global markets as adversely as some investors are speculating. China as well needs to look into their real estate markets and provide alternative investments streams, otherwise when their bubble busts, it going to be really bad for emerging economies and other economies as well. Volatility is great for returns, money management is the tricky bit.



If you are thinking stocks, it goes without saying Japan is possibly a good market to be in. though the Nikkei 225 fell in early Asian Trading yesterday and today morning based on profit taking, the BOJ seems keen on Quantative Easing as part of Abenomics.
"'Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.' - Oscar Wilde.
Metaur
#14 Posted : Monday, May 13, 2019 2:26:26 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/12/2019
Posts: 45
I think the most important issue like somebody stated you need something that have some value like those telecom companies and so on. Like those wich have some real assets, like estate, some equipment, established presence, resources and not like some intanginble assets.
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