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Safaricom FY 2018/19
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Spikes
#21 Posted : Friday, May 03, 2019 11:39:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Pirate wrote:
Profitability is solid.

However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .

My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term


Decline of revenue YoY is a red flag...You must keep vigil when things starts worsening you jump out of this ship .
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Ericsson
#22 Posted : Friday, May 03, 2019 11:45:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Now to look at M-PESA in a little more detail. The number of chargeable transactions per customer per month has increased to 12.2. This has grown steadily at a CAGR of 18% from 7.4 transactions a month just three years ago.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Angelica _ann
#23 Posted : Friday, May 03, 2019 11:53:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
Ericsson wrote:
Kenyans have borrowed Sh45 billion through Fuliza since it was launched in January.


Crazy stuff, this one will be a cash-cow the way it is design. Those opposed to mobile loans what say you smile smile smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, May 03, 2019 11:56 AM | Reason: Not specified
Ericsson
#24 Posted : Friday, May 03, 2019 12:02:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Kenyans have borrowed Sh45 billion through Fuliza since it was launched in January.


Crazy stuff, this one will be a cash-cow the way it is design. Those opposed to mobile loans what say you smile smile smile


Safaricom KES 240 billion revenue mix
Voice 36.6%
M-PESA 31.2%
Mobile Data 16.1%
Fixed data 3.4%
Messaging 7.3%
Others 5.4%
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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nairobby
#25 Posted : Friday, May 03, 2019 12:03:59 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/18/2019
Posts: 185
Location: kenya
Spikes wrote:
Pirate wrote:
Profitability is solid.

However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .

My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term


Decline of revenue YoY is a red flag...You must keep vigil when things starts worsening you jump out of this ship .


Decline in revenue growth**
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Spikes
#26 Posted : Friday, May 03, 2019 12:30:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
nairobby wrote:
Spikes wrote:
Pirate wrote:
Profitability is solid.

However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .

My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term


Decline of revenue YoY is a red flag...You must keep vigil when things starts worsening you jump out of this ship .


Decline in revenue growth**

YES! That is it.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Angelica _ann
#27 Posted : Friday, May 03, 2019 12:35:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
Spikes wrote:
nairobby wrote:
Spikes wrote:
Pirate wrote:
Profitability is solid.

However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .

My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term


Decline of revenue growth YoY is a red flag...You must keep vigil when things starts worsening you jump out of this ship .


Decline in revenue growth**

YES! That is it.


smile Anyway yote ni sawa. But i think there will be growth in data and mpesa over the next 3 years due to innovation and new products. Also Equitel is now inside so reduced competition. Telkom/airtel ni wanyonge hawana uwezo hawana nguvu kabsaa!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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young
#28 Posted : Friday, May 03, 2019 1:27:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,074
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
xtina wrote:
Pirate wrote:
Profitability is solid.

However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .

My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term


Great stuff Applause Applause though I do not understand why supply is 8x demand. I thought it would go to 30+ but now I see it has lost 0.55, from 29.55 to 29.00. Oh well, if it goes down, time to load more.



There is something peculiar about Safaricom counter over the years.

The peak stock price is factored in before release of FY results.

So for those speculating the price of 29 to 30 Bob seems like the peak for now.

Recall at this moment more people are selling than buying including foreign investors who are market makers.
Anyone that sold or is selling now prior to FY result should be contented as they might have likely bought at sub 25 Bob a few months back.


For long termers like us am looking forward to buying at sub 26 in some months ahead .

Safaricom as a counter fundamentally is not strong . Her sustained growth in PBT and net income consistently over the years is her strongest point .


That is why yours truly is still camping with her all these years since 2008 and have been buying in tranches thereafter .

Link about foreign investors(speculators) exiting Safaricom prior to bumper result announcement below


https://www.businessdail...098098-lh2cir/index.html
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, May 03, 2019 1:48 PM | Reason: Not specified
obiero
#29 Posted : Friday, May 03, 2019 1:47:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
young wrote:
xtina wrote:
Pirate wrote:
Profitability is solid.

However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .

My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term


Great stuff Applause Applause though I do not understand why supply is 8x demand. I thought it would go to 30+ but now I see it has lost 0.55, from 29.55 to 29.00. Oh well, if it goes down, time to load more.



There is something peculiar about Safaricom counter over the years.

The peak stock price is factored in before release of FY results.

So for those speculating the price of 29 to 30 Bob seems like the peak for now.

Recall at this moment more people are selling than buying including foreign investors who are market makers.
Anyone that sold or is selling now prior to FY result should be contented as they might have likely bought at sub 25 Bob a few months back.


For long termers like us am looking forward to buy at sub 26 in some months ahead .

Safaricom as a counter fundamentally is not strong . Her sustained growth in PBT and net income consistently over the years is her strongest point .


That is why yours truly is still camping with her all these years since 2008 and have been buying in tranches thereafter .

Link about foreign investors(speculators) exiting Safaricom prior to bumper result announcement below


https://www.businessdail...98098-lh2cir/index.html

100% true

KQ ABP 4.26
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murchr
#30 Posted : Friday, May 03, 2019 2:45:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Pirate wrote:
Profitability is solid.

However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .

My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term


Decline in revenue growth? Or is it a matter of the law of large numbers? In absolute terms is there a decline?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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