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SGR officially dead. What next?
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,368 Location: Nairobi
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:I always wonder why people fear large projects. They should have taken this SGR all the way to Kampala atleast and possibly Rwanda. Every added mile means more cargo to/from Mombasa, hence faster pay off period.
China at one time were building 6,000 miles of highway annually. And the sheer size of the OBOR should inspire Africans to dream surely. The road between China and pakistan through the Himalaya's is jaw dropping.
We need to take risks, ama we shall perish with our midget projects that cannot exploit our vast resources fully. What about the huge debt that comes with the projects if the payoff isn't there? ARM KQ Realistically, what are China's or any other lenders options when a country defaults on its debt. We know Argentina and Greece have defaulted, what were the consequences, the US defaulted in a massive scale (and called it sub-prime loans) and what happened. Whats the worse they could do, we could tell them to take the SGR, which they built with their own money and run it to recover, what would we lose. The responsibility for credit rating will always lie with the person carrying the credit risk, so as long as the Chinese are willing to lend us, then we should look around harder and ask ourselves what they are seeing that guarantees their debt. The USA did not default on its debt but Americans did. Mostly to Americans eg US banks. If to foreigners then mostly in USD. The USA can print USD and pay off its debts. Unless the Chinese/French/Japanese wants KES, then it becomes a problem for us. GoK/CBK can print KES to pay off T-Bonds held by banks and insurance firms but the KES/FX may suffer. Sri Lanka got an airport that is hardly used and the Chinese got a 99-year lease of the 2nd largest port. I think Pakistan is facing similar issues with Gwadar but there is a geo-political aspect too. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,368 Location: Nairobi
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nairobby wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:You guys are treating public investments like private investments, widen the scope of the benefits SGR has brought to Kenya - social returns in plenty already exist. Hii ni mali ya umma, sio ya ubinafsi!!! Please state the benefits. All projects should have a return on investment, especially projects of this scale. These don't have to be quantified by monetary terms but can be modelled economically. If this project was really viable a feasibility study would have been done BEFORE the project outlining all these. A feasibility study was technically done but it's never been made public. Ndii shared a page from it which had unrealistic projections and is why I question the viability. It is expensive debt and if a project cannot service it's debt especially if it was mooted in it's ability to repay it's debt we have a right to be very worried. This cost will be borne at the expense of healthcare, education and the likes. Finally, read the feasibility study on Thika Superhighway and see it's cost benefit analysis. Good day. 50% (or more) of Tax Revenue is already used to service debt. How much is left for development and social services after we pay for MPs salaries, Judiciary's cars, etc? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2015 Posts: 681 Location: Kenya
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VituVingiSana wrote:nairobby wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:You guys are treating public investments like private investments, widen the scope of the benefits SGR has brought to Kenya - social returns in plenty already exist. Hii ni mali ya umma, sio ya ubinafsi!!! Please state the benefits. All projects should have a return on investment, especially projects of this scale. These don't have to be quantified by monetary terms but can be modelled economically. If this project was really viable a feasibility study would have been done BEFORE the project outlining all these. A feasibility study was technically done but it's never been made public. Ndii shared a page from it which had unrealistic projections and is why I question the viability. It is expensive debt and if a project cannot service it's debt especially if it was mooted in it's ability to repay it's debt we have a right to be very worried. This cost will be borne at the expense of healthcare, education and the likes. Finally, read the feasibility study on Thika Superhighway and see it's cost benefit analysis. Good day. 50% (or more) of Tax Revenue is already used to service debt. How much is left for development and social services after we pay for MPs salaries, Judiciary's cars, etc? These guys consume less than 3% of the budget....
60% Learning, 30% synthesizing, 10% Debating
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,368 Location: Nairobi
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Thitifini wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:nairobby wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:You guys are treating public investments like private investments, widen the scope of the benefits SGR has brought to Kenya - social returns in plenty already exist. Hii ni mali ya umma, sio ya ubinafsi!!! Please state the benefits. All projects should have a return on investment, especially projects of this scale. These don't have to be quantified by monetary terms but can be modelled economically. If this project was really viable a feasibility study would have been done BEFORE the project outlining all these. A feasibility study was technically done but it's never been made public. Ndii shared a page from it which had unrealistic projections and is why I question the viability. It is expensive debt and if a project cannot service it's debt especially if it was mooted in it's ability to repay it's debt we have a right to be very worried. This cost will be borne at the expense of healthcare, education and the likes. Finally, read the feasibility study on Thika Superhighway and see it's cost benefit analysis. Good day. 50% (or more) of Tax Revenue is already used to service debt. How much is left for development and social services after we pay for MPs salaries, Judiciary's cars, etc? These guys consume less than 3% of the budget.... Drop by drop, the pond is getting emptied faster than it is filled. The National Executive. National Parliament. MPigs + Senators Judiciary. Counties. Civil Service. (Ghosts, Under-employed) Debt Service for under-performing projects eg SGR or Galana-Kalulu. Losses in paratatals or GoK firms eg KQ, NBK, Mumias, NCPB, etc And it goes on and on. What is left for social services and development? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,302 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:murchr wrote:Calm down its not dead prophet of doom. It's a very convenient train from Coast to Nairobi.. The cost was exorbitant but it is a good service Reminds me of KQ except for the good service. True. They both have very good service standards COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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Binadamu hatosheki. When MBS - NRB SGR was being built they were complaining that its too expensive and that we should have rehabilitated the lunatic rail. Now that NVS-kisumu SGR has been abandoned and we are are to rehabilitate the lunatic at a fraction of the cost they are still complaining. Jameni mnataka nini?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,302 Location: nairobi
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hardwood wrote:Binadamu hatosheki. When MBS - NRB SGR was being built they were complaining that its too expensive and that we should have rehabilitated the lunatic rail. Now that NVS-kisumu SGR has been abandoned and we are are to rehabilitate the lunatic at a fraction of the cost they are still complaining. Jameni mnataka nini? Very peculiar people COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,331 Location: Masada
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wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:
For Kenya, the "upgraded MGR" as touted by Ndii and WaNgugi would have worked almost as well, at a fraction of the cost, until its usage of capacity was 80%. UG has MGR or right of way so the MGR could have been done on their side too.
The railway across DRC is still a pipe dream for now. Once they settle their differences, the railway can probably be built in 4-5 years from west to east.
SGR was the better option compared to the upgraded MGR. Ndii is the same guy who framed 2009 economic stimulus package building fish/frog ponds and markets that took 10 years to build. He has some obsolete ideas. Who will be building locomotives for the upgraded MGR in future? MGR coaches and engines are getting obsolete and being discarded all over the world. Heck we are getting discarded ex-spanish DMUs for Nairobi rail. In 10 years our economy will be able to take in some more debt to push SGR westwards. SA makes some cheap MGR engines and wagons,and so is Brazil. There is no much significant difference in sizes between the two in terms of engines n wagons...they just have to change the wheel base sizes.only that. Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/12/2019 Posts: 58
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SGR or no SGR, we all know that our infrustructure is way below standards, so instead of rambling and making noise all over this platform, it would be better if we discussed possible solutions to this situation. You may not be a leader, but your voice might make a difference. The problem with our leaders is that they take debts to finance debts and use the rest to grow fat. In the end, poor citizen s who pay taxes suffer as a result of sluggishness in development
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,816 Location: NAIROBI
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Impunity wrote:wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:
For Kenya, the "upgraded MGR" as touted by Ndii and WaNgugi would have worked almost as well, at a fraction of the cost, until its usage of capacity was 80%. UG has MGR or right of way so the MGR could have been done on their side too.
The railway across DRC is still a pipe dream for now. Once they settle their differences, the railway can probably be built in 4-5 years from west to east.
SGR was the better option compared to the upgraded MGR. Ndii is the same guy who framed 2009 economic stimulus package building fish/frog ponds and markets that took 10 years to build. He has some obsolete ideas. Who will be building locomotives for the upgraded MGR in future? MGR coaches and engines are getting obsolete and being discarded all over the world. Heck we are getting discarded ex-spanish DMUs for Nairobi rail. In 10 years our economy will be able to take in some more debt to push SGR westwards. SA makes some cheap MGR engines and wagons,and so is Brazil. There is no much significant difference in sizes between the two in terms of engines n wagons...they just have to change the wheel base sizes.only that. In America and Australia cargo is still being carried on MGR Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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SGR officially dead. What next?
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