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SGR officially dead. What next?
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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Impunity wrote:hardwood wrote:I understand the chinese have been surveying the lunatic railway to eldoret and kisumu. Seems plans have been underway to upgrade this reli.   Its not "upgrade" but to "refurbish"....githeri media don't know tofauti. Semantics. In any case, didn't Ndii and WaNgugi talk of an "upgrade" to an Enhanced MGR which could handle more cargo and faster speeds compared to the current MGR? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:[quote=nairobby]SGR construction to end in Naivasha as funding wasn't be secured. Kenya wouldn't be able add 378 billion debt to finance Naivasha - Kisumu to its balance sheet anyway. What next now for this white elephant? https://twitter.com/citi...tus/1121837800247234560[/quote] Foolishly looking at the small picture. For your information: 1. Plans for standard gauge railway lines to connect East Africa to West Africa and Cape to Cairo; 2. Plans go back over 100 yrs ago when the British ruled most of Africa; 3. Landfaced countries have to invest in SGR before the landlocked countries, common sennse since railways must terminate at seaports hence Kenya has to commit before UG, SS, CAR; 4. Might not happen in your lifetime but will happen anyway. Historical attempts to connect the East to the West, around or through African well documented re. Vasco Da Gama and Suez Canal. For Kenya, the "upgraded MGR" as touted by Ndii and WaNgugi would have worked almost as well, at a fraction of the cost, until its usage of capacity was 80%. UG has MGR or right of way so the MGR could have been done on their side too. The railway across DRC is still a pipe dream for now. Once they settle their differences, the railway can probably be built in 4-5 years from west to east. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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wukan wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Ericsson wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:I always wonder why people fear large projects. They should have taken this SGR all the way to Kampala atleast and possibly Rwanda. Every added mile means more cargo to/from Mombasa, hence faster pay off period.
China at one time were building 6,000 miles of highway annually. And the sheer size of the OBOR should inspire Africans to dream surely. The road between China and pakistan through the Himalaya's is jaw dropping.
We need to take risks, ama we shall perish with our midget projects that cannot exploit our vast resources fully. What about the debt burden and economic viability 100 years ago, some random white guys came to Kenya and immediately saw the economic viability of building a railway line from Mombasa to western Uganda, why can't we see the same. Its a chicken and eggs situation but its been proven over and over that go-to market strategy is as important as production, so good reliable, cheap transport and distribution networks are as important in extracting utility of a product or an economy. The corruption, looting and theft is very disturbing and I want to argue for the SGR at its true price, we shuould be fighting to have it built at its true costs and not abandoned because someone will steal half the cost.  Lunatic express was not viable. It was an imperialist race to the bottom. It's purpose was domination to control the source of River nile and ultimately control the downstream countries. Sir Charles Elliot even wondered why it was built in the first place. There were no minerals or commodities to transport back to the sea. The 5m pounds could have done more wonders. Lunatic viability or not there was no other option at the time At the time Lunatic was conceived and built, there was no other suitable means of transport on land. Mass produced cars would not available till a decade later. So, we need to look at the reality here and now and act accordingly from informed position. Those who don't learn from history are bound to make unwarranted mistakes
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:I always wonder why people fear large projects. They should have taken this SGR all the way to Kampala atleast and possibly Rwanda. Every added mile means more cargo to/from Mombasa, hence faster pay off period.
China at one time were building 6,000 miles of highway annually. And the sheer size of the OBOR should inspire Africans to dream surely. The road between China and pakistan through the Himalaya's is jaw dropping.
We need to take risks, ama we shall perish with our midget projects that cannot exploit our vast resources fully. What about the huge debt that comes with the projects if the payoff isn't there? ARM KQ Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:You guys are treating public investments like private investments, widen the scope of the benefits SGR has brought to Kenya - social returns in plenty already exist. Hii ni mali ya umma, sio ya ubinafsi!!! Ndii had provided more info on what goes into a feasibility study that includes the Social Benefits. Question: What if we had spent the same money on an Enhanced MGR and a Mombasa-Nairobi multilane highway? The highway could have connected towns along the way for easier movement by vehicles 24/7. No need to keep most of the trade between Mombasa and Nairobi. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:murchr wrote:Calm down its not dead prophet of doom. It's a very convenient train from Coast to Nairobi.. The cost was exorbitant but it is a good service Reminds me of KQ except for the good service. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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VituVingiSana wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:I always wonder why people fear large projects. They should have taken this SGR all the way to Kampala atleast and possibly Rwanda. Every added mile means more cargo to/from Mombasa, hence faster pay off period.
China at one time were building 6,000 miles of highway annually. And the sheer size of the OBOR should inspire Africans to dream surely. The road between China and pakistan through the Himalaya's is jaw dropping.
We need to take risks, ama we shall perish with our midget projects that cannot exploit our vast resources fully. What about the huge debt that comes with the projects if the payoff isn't there? ARM KQ Realistically, what are China's or any other lenders options when a country defaults on its debt. We know Argentina and Greece have defaulted, what were the consequences, the US defaulted in a massive scale (and called it sub-prime loans) and what happened. Whats the worse they could do, we could tell them to take the SGR, which they built with their own money and run it to recover, what would we lose. The responsibility for credit rating will always lie with the person carrying the credit risk, so as long as the Chinese are willing to lend us, then we should look around harder and ask ourselves what they are seeing that guarantees their debt. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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limanika wrote:wukan wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Ericsson wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:I always wonder why people fear large projects. They should have taken this SGR all the way to Kampala atleast and possibly Rwanda. Every added mile means more cargo to/from Mombasa, hence faster pay off period.
China at one time were building 6,000 miles of highway annually. And the sheer size of the OBOR should inspire Africans to dream surely. The road between China and pakistan through the Himalaya's is jaw dropping.
We need to take risks, ama we shall perish with our midget projects that cannot exploit our vast resources fully. What about the debt burden and economic viability 100 years ago, some random white guys came to Kenya and immediately saw the economic viability of building a railway line from Mombasa to western Uganda, why can't we see the same. Its a chicken and eggs situation but its been proven over and over that go-to market strategy is as important as production, so good reliable, cheap transport and distribution networks are as important in extracting utility of a product or an economy. The corruption, looting and theft is very disturbing and I want to argue for the SGR at its true price, we shuould be fighting to have it built at its true costs and not abandoned because someone will steal half the cost. Lunatic express was not viable. It was an imperialist race to the bottom. It's purpose was domination to control the source of River nile and ultimately control the downstream countries. Sir Charles Elliot even wondered why it was built in the first place. There were no minerals or commodities to transport back to the sea. The 5m pounds could have done more wonders. Lunatic viability or not there was no other option at the time At the time Lunatic was conceived and built, there was no other suitable means of transport on land. Mass produced cars would not available till a decade later. So, we need to look at the reality here and now and act accordingly from informed position. Those who don't learn from history are bound to make unwarranted mistakes Oh my you never heard of trading caravans or the Kamba long distance traders or the Maasai/kikuyu markets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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VituVingiSana wrote:
For Kenya, the "upgraded MGR" as touted by Ndii and WaNgugi would have worked almost as well, at a fraction of the cost, until its usage of capacity was 80%. UG has MGR or right of way so the MGR could have been done on their side too.
The railway across DRC is still a pipe dream for now. Once they settle their differences, the railway can probably be built in 4-5 years from west to east.
SGR was the better option compared to the upgraded MGR. Ndii is the same guy who framed 2009 economic stimulus package building fish/frog ponds and markets that took 10 years to build. He has some obsolete ideas. Who will be building locomotives for the upgraded MGR in future? MGR coaches and engines are getting obsolete and being discarded all over the world. Heck we are getting discarded ex-spanish DMUs for Nairobi rail. In 10 years our economy will be able to take in some more debt to push SGR westwards.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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wukan wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Ericsson wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:I always wonder why people fear large projects. They should have taken this SGR all the way to Kampala atleast and possibly Rwanda. Every added mile means more cargo to/from Mombasa, hence faster pay off period.
China at one time were building 6,000 miles of highway annually. And the sheer size of the OBOR should inspire Africans to dream surely. The road between China and pakistan through the Himalaya's is jaw dropping.
We need to take risks, ama we shall perish with our midget projects that cannot exploit our vast resources fully. What about the debt burden and economic viability 100 years ago, some random white guys came to Kenya and immediately saw the economic viability of building a railway line from Mombasa to western Uganda, why can't we see the same. Its a chicken and eggs situation but its been proven over and over that go-to market strategy is as important as production, so good reliable, cheap transport and distribution networks are as important in extracting utility of a product or an economy. The corruption, looting and theft is very disturbing and I want to argue for the SGR at its true price, we shuould be fighting to have it built at its true costs and not abandoned because someone will steal half the cost. Lunatic express was not viable. It was an imperialist race to the bottom. It's purpose was domination to control the source of River nile and ultimately control the downstream countries. Sir Charles Elliot even wondered why it was built in the first place. There were no minerals or commodities to transport back to the sea. The 5m pounds could have done more wonders. There was a lot of opposition to the building and financing of the Lunatic Line but politics won the day. To try to make it profitable, the full-scale colonialization started by grabbing the "White Highlands" among other land. The Lunatic Line was not a project for economic gain as much as imperialist designs. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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SGR officially dead. What next?
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