I usually refrain from Kenyan politics,but today I feel political. Reason: For once I have seen a Kenyan politician with balls! Let’s indulge in some political analysis for a change:



Martha Karua has stolen the thunder from the ODM. Period! Somehow I expected such a move from Raila but his hands are tied by the constitutional marriage with Kibaki in a till 2012 do us part arrangement.



Martha has an opportunity to establish the 'official opposition' and in so doing get the sympathy votes associated with the opposition underdog. I still believe ODM would have been more strategic by refusing to share half a loaf with Kibaki for the following reasons:


The 'stolen elections’ debacle would have generated a lot of sympathy votes come 2012.
Having been in government for 5 years,it will be very difficult for ODM to convince the electorate they can deliver when they 'get into government.'
The ODM mystique fizzled out once they joined government and partook of grand corruption i.e. maize scandal
The presidents’ powers are still as immense as during Moi’s time and hence any ‘prime minister’ position with supervisory powers is basically equivalent to a Head of Civil Service. Ever wondered why Muthaura and Raila/ODM constantly clash? Its coz Muthaura’s job description is actually what Raila is meant to do.



Martha Karua must have seen the Kenyan yearning for leadership. This vacuum exists both in government and in the opposition. Since she could not provide it in government (she is not born of the right lineage,no royalty blood in her veins),then the logical place to provide it is in the opposition. If she tones down her forcefulness (she creates jitters in most Men),she may realign the political field.



Truth be told,President Kibaki has failed to provide leadership. My analysis of Kibaki is that he is a Manager and not a Leader. Managers prefer the status quo and implementation of policy while leaders prefer to innovate,inspire,and change the status quo. Leadership is about making your followers have a common focus,motivating the people and initiating change. In the turbulent third world that Kenya is,we need a leader not a manager (He may have performed fairly well in a stable Scandinavian country with well established systems).Leadership of a third world country needs not a country club sort of management,but some level of dictatorship,if some vices like corruption are to tackled.



Raila seems to be in a dilemma. I am sure he truly admires Karua’s move,but is unable to do something similar. If he was to jump ship,he would need to convince the entire ODM brigade to jump with him if such a move was to be considered a success. As it is now,if he was to jump,he may only leave with the Nyanza ODM wing leaving the Rift Valley ODM wing to share the vacated Nyanza ODM seats. This would be suicidal on his presidential ambitions come 2012. Based on the reluctance of the Rift valley ODM wing to jump ship,Raila becomes a prisoner in the coalition government.



Ruto,the de facto leader of the Rift valley ODM wing knows Raila’s political destiny depends on him. He may just frustrate this ambition as he knows that Raila’s real chance at the presidency is 2012 coz come 2017,Raila will be past his sell by date. If Raila wins 2012,then expect a 10 year presidency (no Kenyan president serves one term) which may not benefit ambitious Ruto. With the populous Rift Valley behind him,Ruto is a man to watch. A situation whereby everybody runs for the top sit (i.e. Raila,Mudavadi,Saitoti,Uhuru,Kalonzo,and Martha) greatly favors him as he would most likely emerge as one of the top two in such a field.



Kalonzo hopefully has learnt that you cannot run for president alone. His 10% vote may be enticing to any grouping that emerges,more so the Uhuru or Saitoti camp. Kalonzo as a factor will largely depend on the coalitions that form before 2012.



For Mudavadi,little is said and heard about him. I must confess I admire his cool demeanor but my worry is that he is too soft to govern a third world country (much like Kibaki).



Uhuru has Martha factor to contend with as far as their support base is concerned. However,trust the Central Kenya votes to be consolidated into one basket when the final votes are counted. Whoever wins the hearts of the majority will carry home this populous vote basket.



Saitoti may have the money but I feel he may lack the persona to run and win the presidency. He may find it a tough going what with the sad situation of needing a bedrock tribal base to launch any meaningful presidential bid. I hope he is not eyeing the crowded Central Kenya scene for his vote base.



My thoughts ……………………..



Happy hunting.


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