Dear Wazuans,
I posted the post below on 4th March 2018. It is now almost 1 year to the day!
The funds are "NDANI" as we say.
Thanks to this fortunate provenance, a lot of mis-investments have been fixed.
Thank you to Rubis, Ohana, KenolKobil, brokers, advisors/research analysts, etc.
Thank you to those who kept the faith and encouraged me to keep the faith.
If I have hurt anyone's feelings with my ardent defense of KK, I hope you find it in your heart to forgive me.
I shall now "retire" from this thread given I no longer have an interest/shareholding in KenolKobil. Unless Rubis cross-lists in Kenya or KK re-lists on the NSE, I shall remain, at most, a customer and well-wisher of KK.
I hope I can find another KK amongst what is left at the NSE. If yes, then let us meet at that forum.
Adios Amigos.
VVS
*Image of VVS riding into the sunset
VituVingiSana wrote:The "2015" subject header has been overtaken by events hence the new thread.
KK's financial strength has changed substantially since 2015:
- Disposal of loss-making assets in Tanzania and DRC
- Substantial reduction in the level of debt. [Effectively the KES debt is zero]
- Consolidation of the business followed by expansion [new stations]
- KK is back in the OTS market with USD financiers willing to lend
- Cheaper financing from Dutch banks (vs French banks)
- KK is back into jet fuel in a big way [except supplying KQ which is still cash-strapped]
- Provision/settlement for KPRL/KPC debt and lawsuits
- Biwott is no more
KK is entering a new era of profitable growth [though there's a limit unless KK can expand regionally] and there's potential for a takeover given Ohana has cleaned the books and Biwott's kids may have little interest in "owning" KK.
There are some challenges e.g.
- The VAT coming in Sep will increase financing costs
- The VAT would increase the price which will lower demand
- The VAT will make smuggling/dumping of fuel more attractive. The KRA cannot stamp out smuggling when its officers (& police) are part of the problem
- Competition esp Vivo and Total
My Bottomline: KK will do well with or without a takeover.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett