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Why investing in the NSE is fool's gold and a waste
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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mv_ufanisi wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Just because you tried investing and failed doesn't mean that it is a fool's errand. This post is written from your personal perspective and shouldn't be generalized. You are probably a bad investor but an outstanding manager/entrepreneur which explains why you failed in stocks but succeeded in business. Not everyone is like you and that is why there are many ways of investing so that everyone can find whatever works best for him or her. A successful NSE investor might make a post claiming that entrepreneurship is a fool's errand, or property investing is a fool's errand. You see, it boils down to what you know best and where you find your success. Some people claim buying a matatu is a fool's errand, but others have made a kill from the same business. I can't code, does it make computer programming a bad career/fool's errand?? Bottomline: Just because you did not succeed in something doesn't warrant you calling it a fool's errand. Others have made it in the same. I didn't fail at NSE stock picking; I just found a way that works much better at achieving my financial goals. Your current post above could have been written by a gambler on SportPesa to defend gambling. My thesis is that investing in the NSE is like planting your seed on less fertile soil because as it is, the NSE is fundamentally flawed. There are other more fertile soils out there for the person who is keen to outperform in the long term. I hope that the kind of person who is keen to outperform will check out these other options! This debate can go on forever. Every investment is a fool's errand if you aren't knowledgeable in it to get an edge. Not just NSE. The only investment/business that isn't a fool's errand is the one you are knowledgeable in. That knowledge is your edge. So, NSE is a fool's errand to YOU and many people, but not everyone. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Hello Joined: 12/26/2018 Posts: 2 Location: Nairobi
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XSK wrote:[quote=tom_boy]In Kenyan investing, it seems you can lose money no matter what you do
Keep it in the bank, and the bank shuts down ala Chase and Imperial
Keep it in a money market fund and you risk a 30% haircut courtesy of Nakumatt bond.
Go to NSE, crooks all over the place.
Try start a biz, kanju regulations, lazy dishonest employees etc etc
Invest offshore and Kenyan inflation will gobble up your 3-4% usd gains per annum while intermediaries feast on whats left.
Do real estate and have to deal with approvals systems that are just gravy trains for the powers that be.
Yenyewe, bora uhai. @tom_boy I share the highlighted pain. I never thought I would see this ever!
I have seen it courtesy of amana@XSK what is happening at AMANA Capital?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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mv_ufanisi wrote:
I didn't fail at NSE stock picking; I just found a way that works much better at achieving my financial goals.
Your current post above could have been written by a gambler on SportPesa to defend gambling.
My thesis is that investing in the NSE is like planting your seed on less fertile soil because as it is, the NSE is fundamentally flawed. There are other more fertile soils out there for the person who is keen to outperform in the long term.
I hope that the kind of person who is keen to outperform will check out these other options!
You are wasting your time, my broda. As I said Mutaga is very wise and you cannot persuade him otherwise. I remember the days when I invested in ICDC at 6 bob, sold at 12 bob in under a year and thought I was very smart. Mutaga is still in that phase. His whole portfolio is bleeding red as we speak but he still clings on because in his mind "the market provides the highest returns and everybody who sits out of it has failed at stock picking "
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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MugundaMan wrote:mv_ufanisi wrote:
I didn't fail at NSE stock picking; I just found a way that works much better at achieving my financial goals.
Your current post above could have been written by a gambler on SportPesa to defend gambling.
My thesis is that investing in the NSE is like planting your seed on less fertile soil because as it is, the NSE is fundamentally flawed. There are other more fertile soils out there for the person who is keen to outperform in the long term.
I hope that the kind of person who is keen to outperform will check out these other options!
You are wasting your time, my broda. As I said Mutaga is very wise and you cannot persuade him otherwise. I remember the days when I invested in ICDC at 6 bob, sold at 12 bob in under a year and thought I was very smart. Mutaga is still in that phase. His whole portfolio is bleeding red as we speak but he still clings on because in his mind "the market provides the highest returns and everybody who sits out of it has failed at stock picking " Kenya power has risen from 3.15 to 4.20 in less than 2 weeks Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/27/2018 Posts: 56 Location: Cambrian Dc
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This thread has been most entertaining. Shukran to all the contributers. The disappointment with investing in the NSE comes from broad and vague targets like 'long term capital growth'. Just set specific and measurable targets; kama ni dividends set how much you expect, kama ni capital gains set the percentage you want. The NSE is a market kama gikomba don't get emotional or over optimistic. And take profits regularly,if they present themselves no need to wait for a major payday ndio ununue ndege, it's good for your health. I like the NSE because it offers great flexibility. You can enter and exit at a moments notice to meet unforseen circumstances or take advantage of other opportunities. Anyway :KILA MWAMBA NGOMA, NGOZI HUIVUTA KWAKE. If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst at once into the sky that would be like the splendour of the mighty one.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/8/2009 Posts: 975 Location: Nairobi
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Estiko wrote:XSK wrote:[quote=tom_boy]In Kenyan investing, it seems you can lose money no matter what you do
Keep it in the bank, and the bank shuts down ala Chase and Imperial
Keep it in a money market fund and you risk a 30% haircut courtesy of Nakumatt bond.
Go to NSE, crooks all over the place.
Try start a biz, kanju regulations, lazy dishonest employees etc etc
Invest offshore and Kenyan inflation will gobble up your 3-4% usd gains per annum while intermediaries feast on whats left.
Do real estate and have to deal with approvals systems that are just gravy trains for the powers that be.
Yenyewe, bora uhai. @tom_boy I share the highlighted pain. I never thought I would see this ever!
I have seen it courtesy of amana@XSK what is happening at AMANA Capital? Part of the money market fund was invested in Nakumatt. If you invested before 2018 part of the investment is now locked (unavailable) for a year hopefully You will know that you have arrived when money and time are not mutually exclusive "events" in you life!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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MugundaMan wrote:mv_ufanisi wrote:
I didn't fail at NSE stock picking; I just found a way that works much better at achieving my financial goals.
Your current post above could have been written by a gambler on SportPesa to defend gambling.
My thesis is that investing in the NSE is like planting your seed on less fertile soil because as it is, the NSE is fundamentally flawed. There are other more fertile soils out there for the person who is keen to outperform in the long term.
I hope that the kind of person who is keen to outperform will check out these other options!
You are wasting your time, my broda. As I said Mutaga is very wise and you cannot persuade him otherwise. I remember the days when I invested in ICDC at 6 bob, sold at 12 bob in under a year and thought I was very smart. Mutaga is still in that phase. His whole portfolio is bleeding red as we speak but he still clings on because in his mind "the market provides the highest returns and everybody who sits out of it has failed at stock picking " Do you know about anything in my portfolio? My picks are usually public knowledge here on wazua and I use a hypothetical figure of Ksh 1,000,000 to ease calculations. The last counter I was invested in was total kenya and I exited at a 56% net gain after 10 months. I haven't been in the market since April 2018. As I said, you have a know it all attitude and you even claim to know about my portfolio more than myself NSE is not for everyone. I didn't stick around for the bloodbath that most wazuans have experienced. I think there is enough blood on the streets for me to start buying now because some counters are on sale. Evidence here: http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=35514 A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590
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Quote:The primary role of the capital market is allocation of ownership of the economy's capital stock. In general terms, the ideal is a market in which prices provide accurate signals for resource allocation: that is, a market in which firms can make production-investment decisions, and investors can choose among the securities that represents ownership of firm's activities under the assumption that security prices at any time "fully reflect" all available information Right now I don't think NSE prices fully reflect all available information. There is a lot of damage to SMEs/jua kali sector from the interest rate cap. That damage is yet to get baked in the prices. KE economy moves on 2 track system the formal and informal. GoK reliably tracks the formal economy which the foreign investors also rely on and who by and large control the market. That to me is the fundamental flaw. GoK has done a lot of wrong things to prolong the 'recession'in the informal economy. KE economy needs structural adjustment but that is unlikely to happen-status quo benefits and insulates a tiny portion of society(similar to white privilege during colonial KE). I agree there are more fertile soils out there to plant for the long term. Maybe a govt that is more in touch with the informal sector will emerge and unlock the value. But right now it's wise to stay away from NSE. By the time we are done with successions politics you will not like your portfolio.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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S.Mutaga III wrote:MugundaMan wrote:mv_ufanisi wrote:
I didn't fail at NSE stock picking; I just found a way that works much better at achieving my financial goals.
Your current post above could have been written by a gambler on SportPesa to defend gambling.
My thesis is that investing in the NSE is like planting your seed on less fertile soil because as it is, the NSE is fundamentally flawed. There are other more fertile soils out there for the person who is keen to outperform in the long term.
I hope that the kind of person who is keen to outperform will check out these other options!
You are wasting your time, my broda. As I said Mutaga is very wise and you cannot persuade him otherwise. I remember the days when I invested in ICDC at 6 bob, sold at 12 bob in under a year and thought I was very smart. Mutaga is still in that phase. His whole portfolio is bleeding red as we speak but he still clings on because in his mind "the market provides the highest returns and everybody who sits out of it has failed at stock picking " Do you know about anything in my portfolio? My picks are usually public knowledge here on wazua and I use a hypothetical figure of Ksh 1,000,000 to ease calculations. The last counter I was invested in was total kenya and I exited at a 56% net gain after 10 months. I haven't been in the market since April 2018. As I said, you have a know it all attitude and you even claim to know about my portfolio more than myself NSE is not for everyone. I didn't stick around for the bloodbath that most wazuans have experienced. I think there is enough blood on the streets for me to start buying now because some counters are on sale. Evidence here: http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=35514 Hindsight is always 20-20. Danganya wengine. If your stock picking record is as stellar as you claim you would have turned 10k into 100m and everybody would be mentioning you in the same breath as J Kibunga Kimash and others. Yet you are an unknown small time nobody not even listed in the top shareholdings of any company. As I said, danganya wengine!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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A stock is a piece of a business, not a piece of paper or numbers on a screen. That is the first and most important step in understanding the stock market. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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i like NSE because its the easiest way to own a good business.With kshs 2300 you can easily own 100 shares of safaricom,the current best business in east africa. I also like my money working for me.With NSE,i just wait for dividends from the companies that i own twice a year. NSE also reflects the true picture of kenya economy.So im glad to keep in touch with the changing trends in our challenging economy.So according to me its better to invest in NSE.Its my best investment. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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My main thesis here has been to state that there is a better option than the NSE to achieve economic prosperity precisely funding or starting a new venture with a very small portion of your assets say 10%.
Here's why this is especially an important and profitable way to earn your wealth not only for yourself but for the country or continent at large.
1. Most good businesses go and seek out a solution to a problem that affects society or business. Solving this problem usually makes some other people's life or businesses' life easier. That creates additional second order benefits to society.
2. Starting and being successful at a business implies that you have gained new knowledge and experience that can usually be translated into other businesses or fields. That additional knowledge you have gained will likely empower you to do more and bigger projects in future.
3. Even failing at a new business leads to new knowledge about what doesn't work etc which further builds up on point no 2 above.
4. Starting a business usually forces you to learn new things, push your intellect, interact with people in new ways etc. That translates into concrete knowledge not just an almost video game like experience of stock picking at the NSE.
5. Attaining success in a business will typically lead to an increase in employment, payment of taxes, becoming a customer for other services etc which leads to multiple positive effects in the economy.
6. The fact is that we are at a stage as a country where we need a lot of pioneers to build new businesses that will solve the problems we face and open up new possibilities for the future. We are a very young economy with very few companies, we NEED a lot more companies and that means we need a lot of entrepreneurs to be active and build them.
7. Entrepreneurship is the only source of new wealth in an economy. As an entrepreneur you have the possibility of almost creating wealth out of nothing but your creativity that leads to customer satisfaction.
Given a 1M KES capital, you could invest that in the NSE and if you're very lucky (like the Sportpesa jackpot guys) you could do a 100% return in a year. An entrepreneur could take that 1M KES and turn it into 100M KES worth by creating a business that addresses an important need in society while employing people, paying taxes, gaining a lot of real knowledge about how to run a business and creating new capabilities in the country.
Because of the stage where we are as a country, the opportunities for entrepreneurs are myriad and that promises to be where the new wealth will be created.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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mv_ufanisi wrote:
Given a 1M KES capital, you could invest that in the NSE and if you're very lucky (like the Sportpesa jackpot guys) you could do a 100% return in a year. An entrepreneur could take that 1M KES and turn it into 100M KES worth by creating a business that addresses an important need in society while employing people, paying taxes, gaining a lot of real knowledge about how to run a business and creating new capabilities in the country.
Because of the stage where we are as a country, the opportunities for entrepreneurs are myriad and that promises to be where the new wealth will be created.
1. What is the success rate of new businesses? 2. It is obvious that you do not understand the meaning of a stock. A stock is part ownership in a business. Therefore, if you buy shares, you are indeed addressing an important need in society through business ownership, employing people and paying taxes. Stop thinking of stocks as pieces of paper or numbers on a screen. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 12/30/2018 Posts: 94
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Easier said than done----->According to a survey released Monday this week by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), approximately 400,000 micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) did not get to celebrate their second anniversary in the last five years raising concern over sustainability of this critical sector. https://www.standardmedi...-smes-are-dying-annually
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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mv_ufanisi wrote:My main thesis here has been to state that there is a better option than the NSE to achieve economic prosperity precisely funding or starting a new venture with a very small portion of your assets say 10%.
Here's why this is especially an important and profitable way to earn your wealth not only for yourself but for the country or continent at large.
1. Most good businesses go and seek out a solution to a problem that affects society or business. Solving this problem usually makes some other people's life or businesses' life easier. That creates additional second order benefits to society.
2. Starting and being successful at a business implies that you have gained new knowledge and experience that can usually be translated into other businesses or fields. That additional knowledge you have gained will likely empower you to do more and bigger projects in future.
3. Even failing at a new business leads to new knowledge about what doesn't work etc which further builds up on point no 2 above.
4. Starting a business usually forces you to learn new things, push your intellect, interact with people in new ways etc. That translates into concrete knowledge not just an almost video game like experience of stock picking at the NSE.
5. Attaining success in a business will typically lead to an increase in employment, payment of taxes, becoming a customer for other services etc which leads to multiple positive effects in the economy.
6. The fact is that we are at a stage as a country where we need a lot of pioneers to build new businesses that will solve the problems we face and open up new possibilities for the future. We are a very young economy with very few companies, we NEED a lot more companies and that means we need a lot of entrepreneurs to be active and build them.
7. Entrepreneurship is the only source of new wealth in an economy. As an entrepreneur you have the possibility of almost creating wealth out of nothing but your creativity that leads to customer satisfaction.
Given a 1M KES capital, you could invest that in the NSE and if you're very lucky (like the Sportpesa jackpot guys) you could do a 100% return in a year. An entrepreneur could take that 1M KES and turn it into 100M KES worth by creating a business that addresses an important need in society while employing people, paying taxes, gaining a lot of real knowledge about how to run a business and creating new capabilities in the country.
Because of the stage where we are as a country, the opportunities for entrepreneurs are myriad and that promises to be where the new wealth will be created.
Great post. Perhaps Mutaga is right though. We all know that entrepreneurial talent is a scarce resource. Not everyone can run a business successfully. That is why there are CEOs/Owners and there are also low level corporate drones who subsist best taking and obeying orders humbly. If the drone had the ability, they would not be working for the CEO, he/she would have started his own company/business. This is simply a hard fact of life. NSE is easy for them because it involves no real work. Some may be even scared to talk to a new customer in a business setting let alone sell them anything or supervise 5 employees to get a task done. It would be a stretch to imagine they would run a successful business hence the high failure rates for those without the talent or personality for it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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kenyan2019 wrote:Easier said than done----->According to a survey released Monday this week by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), approximately 400,000 micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) did not get to celebrate their second anniversary in the last five years raising concern over sustainability of this critical sector. https://www.standardmedi...smes-are-dying-annually So how many businesses have survived? Statistics need to be complete to make sense. Thus they also need to tell us how many businesses were started and how many are surviving. May be over 1 million were started and only 400k collapsed. We need more info. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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MugundaMan wrote:
Great post. Perhaps Mutaga is right though. We all know that entrepreneurial talent is a scarce resource. Not everyone can run a business successfully. That is why there are CEOs/Owners and there are also low level corporate drones who subsist best taking and obeying orders humbly. If the drone had the ability, they would not be working for the CEO, he/she would have started his own company/business. This is simply a hard fact of life. NSE is easy for them because it involves no real work. Some may be even scared to talk to a new customer in a business setting let alone sell them anything or supervise 5 employees to get a task done. It would be a stretch to imagine they would run a successful business hence the high failure rates for those without the talent or personality for it.
Some other important observations from the report... https://www.standardmedi...smes-are-dying-annually
Quote:A tough economic environment combined with individual decisions in which some of the operators diverted returns to other non-business areas rather than re-investing saw most of them take a hit.
Dr Joyce Kiiru, an economics lecturer at the University of Nairobi, said beside difficulties in formalising MSMEs, most people who neither have the skills nor passion for business are getting into the SME sector for lack of “meaningful employment.” Such businesses are more likely to die sooner than later.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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S.Mutaga III wrote:mv_ufanisi wrote:
Given a 1M KES capital, you could invest that in the NSE and if you're very lucky (like the Sportpesa jackpot guys) you could do a 100% return in a year. An entrepreneur could take that 1M KES and turn it into 100M KES worth by creating a business that addresses an important need in society while employing people, paying taxes, gaining a lot of real knowledge about how to run a business and creating new capabilities in the country.
Because of the stage where we are as a country, the opportunities for entrepreneurs are myriad and that promises to be where the new wealth will be created.
1. What is the success rate of new businesses? 2. It is obvious that you do not understand the meaning of a stock. A stock is part ownership in a business. Therefore, if you buy shares, you are indeed addressing an important need in society through business ownership, employing people and paying taxes. Stop thinking of stocks as pieces of paper or numbers on a screen. 1. What is the success rate of new businesses? How much money has been lost in the NSE with nothing to show for it? Well for the period April to September 2018, NSE lost investors 568bn according to this Business Daily Article NSE sheds Sh568bn investor wealth in 5 monthsImagine, if this money had been put into starting/funding new businesses! We need a mindset change to direct more money into start ups so we can really start moving ahead as an economy. 2. It is obvious that you do not understand the meaning of a stock. A stock is part ownership in a business. Therefore, if you buy shares, you are indeed addressing an important need in society through business ownership, employing people and paying taxes. Stop thinking of stocks as pieces of paper or numbers on a screenUnless you are taking on a controlling stake in an NSE company there is not much of a difference you are making by joining the shareholder list of an NSE company. Try calling Bob Collymore to advise him to ask SCOM to improve customer service because you own 100,000 SCOM stock and see how far you get. Are there any new people that will be hired at SCOM because you have bought 100k of SCOM stock? There is a big difference between buying some stock on the NSE compared to using the money to start a new business or fund a start up. The difference is your ability to influence and use your intellect to direct how the start up will perform versus your hands being tied in the big NSE company that you can't really influence. It's the difference between being a spectator versus being in the ring.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/8/2018 Posts: 507 Location: Nairobi
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mv_ufanisi wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:mv_ufanisi wrote:
Given a 1M KES capital, you could invest that in the NSE and if you're very lucky (like the Sportpesa jackpot guys) you could do a 100% return in a year. An entrepreneur could take that 1M KES and turn it into 100M KES worth by creating a business that addresses an important need in society while employing people, paying taxes, gaining a lot of real knowledge about how to run a business and creating new capabilities in the country.
Because of the stage where we are as a country, the opportunities for entrepreneurs are myriad and that promises to be where the new wealth will be created.
1. What is the success rate of new businesses? 2. It is obvious that you do not understand the meaning of a stock. A stock is part ownership in a business. Therefore, if you buy shares, you are indeed addressing an important need in society through business ownership, employing people and paying taxes. Stop thinking of stocks as pieces of paper or numbers on a screen. 1. What is the success rate of new businesses? How much money has been lost in the NSE with nothing to show for it? Well for the period April to September 2018, NSE lost investors 568bn according to this Business Daily Article NSE sheds Sh568bn investor wealth in 5 monthsImagine, if this money had been put into starting/funding new businesses! We need a mindset change to direct more money into start ups so we can really start moving ahead as an economy. 2. It is obvious that you do not understand the meaning of a stock. A stock is part ownership in a business. Therefore, if you buy shares, you are indeed addressing an important need in society through business ownership, employing people and paying taxes. Stop thinking of stocks as pieces of paper or numbers on a screenUnless you are taking on a controlling stake in an NSE company there is not much of a difference you are making by joining the shareholder list of an NSE company. Try calling Bob Collymore to advise him to ask SCOM to improve customer service because you own 100,000 SCOM stock and see how far you get. Are there any new people that will be hired at SCOM because you have bought 100k of SCOM stock? There is a big difference between buying some stock on the NSE compared to using the money to start a new business or fund a start up. The difference is your ability to influence and use your intellect to direct how the start up will perform versus your hands being tied in the big NSE company that you can't really influence. It's the difference between being a spectator versus being in the ring. Let me help you out with your skewed view: Link 1Quote: about 75% of startup companies make it past the first year, less than half of these companies make it past the two-year mark. Link 2Quote:Out of around fifty Tech Start-ups that go through M-Labs, only five to ten make it past one year. Start ups collapse left right and centre. One needs good entrepreneurial skills to survive and thrive. That can't be compared to paper losses in the NSE . IN fact, the NSE investor waits for those startups to grow and reach IPO stage before buying stake in them.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 12/30/2018 Posts: 94
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hardwood wrote:kenyan2019 wrote:Easier said than done----->According to a survey released Monday this week by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), approximately 400,000 micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) did not get to celebrate their second anniversary in the last five years raising concern over sustainability of this critical sector. https://www.standardmedi...smes-are-dying-annually So how many businesses have survived? Statistics need to be complete to make sense. Thus they also need to tell us how many businesses were started and how many are surviving. May be over 1 million were started and only 400k collapsed. We need more info. . Did you open the Link? ----->“A total of 2.2 million MSMEs were closed in the last five years, 2016 inclusive,” read the report in part which found that a significant 46 per cent of the MSMEs surveyed died in their first year of establishment.
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