wazua Fri, Mar 29, 2024
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

186 Pages«<149150151152153>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
AndyC
#3001 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2018 11:47:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/21/2015
Posts: 151
Angelica _ann wrote:
Mr. Elliott's wave don't u out think this is shifting the goalpost after knowing the direction the share price is taking?



The little faith i had in charts is waningSad .

mnandii
#3002 Posted : Thursday, October 18, 2018 3:32:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
This is back them days in 2014. The wave labels may have changed but the conclusion remained the same - a bear market of huge proportions. No one believed then.

mnandii wrote:
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF THE NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

This is my interpretation of the path of the NSE 20 Share index from the low of Sept. 2002. I've obtained the chart from the FINANCIAL TIMES Website
link

Elliott wave analysis is mine.
Looking at the chart, one can convincingly conclude that it is possible to chart the path of the NSE using Elliott Waves. For those interested in learning the waves you can read ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE: KEY TO MARKET BEHAVIOUR BY Frost and Prechter. You can get the entire book free and alot more from www.elliottwave.com.

It is instructive to note that Prechter and Frost, in the book, predicted the great bull market from 1979 (i.e the DJIA). To date the American market has far exceeded even their own expectations. Prechter won the U.S Trading Championship in 1984 with a record 444% gain.

Prechter

Prechter is currently researching on social causality via the Socionomics Institute.

Now to our analysis:



This chart shows a 5 wave move from the low of Sept. 2002 (1009 points) to the high of Jan 2007 (6026 points). Note the zigzag in wave IV and the triangle in wave four of wave V.

This five wave move is called an Impulse Wave. I don't have data from before 1998 so I guess this is a fifth wave move of a much larger impulse wave.

A fourth wave usually divides an impulse into a Golden Section. From the low of Sept. 2002 to the high of wave III (at 3176) is a gain of 2167 (i.e. 3176-1009). Wave V has a gain of 3558 points (i.e 6026-2468).

Now, wave I through wave III, (i.e 3176-1009=2167) multiplied by 1.618 ( a Fibonacci ratio) gives 3506 points vide:

(3176-1009) X 1.618 = 3506 points.

Wave V had a gain of 3558 points i.e 6026-2468.
The difference btw the two figures (3558 vs 3506) is 52 points which is one and half percentage points from the exact figure!

WHY I CONSIDER A HUGE BEAR MARKET FOR NSE

1. From the high of 6026, the NSE 20 Share index has fallen in five waves (i.e waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5). From the low of March 2009 (at 2576 points), the NSE has moved in 3 waves. Or, at the very least, the move from the part I've labelled A to the part labelled B cannot be considered an impulse wave due to overlap. The Elliott wave pattern that has such characteristics is called a ZIGZAG. A Zigzag is a three wave move that subdivides 5-3-5. So presently we have 5 waves down from the 6026 high, thus forming wave A. Wave B is the three wave move from the low of March 2009 at 2576 to present levels. What remains is another five wave down which is likely to take the 2576 low!!!

2. Also note the DIVERGENCE between the RSI and the highs that the NSE is making presently.

3. From the low of Sept. 2002 to the high of Jan 2007 NSE had a gain of 5017 (i.e 6026-1009) points over a 5 year period. From the low of March 2009 to presently, the NSE has only gained about 2497 points (i.e 5073-2576) over a 5 year period. This is about half the gain of 2002-2007. So we now have a market which shows weakness in breadth apart from not making a new high beyond 6026 points.

4. Economically Kenya has one of the highest taxation levels with little efficiency. Electricity prices are high etc etc. Our debt obligation, though not necessarily un-manageable at this point, has accelerated over the past few years. Alot of grand projects are being announced which appear to be good news. In Elliott analysis complacency usually reigns at the very top of a move.

CONCLUSION

NSE 20 Share index is over-extended and it is time for a big correction in the market.

Regards to all.



Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3003 Posted : Thursday, October 18, 2018 3:51:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Angelica _ann wrote:
Mr. Elliott's wave don't u out think this is shifting the goalpost after knowing the direction the share price is taking?


It's called factoring in the reality. Elliott Waves is probabilistic. Every time I post a forecast based on Elliott Waves it means that, based on the evidence available to me at that time , then the most probable path for the market is as I present. Later market moves will confirm if the conclusion is correct or not. This is why Elliott Wave charts always have alternate labelling.

For example, with the Safaricom counter I had assumed that the extended blue wave 5 was not yet complete. When the market continued to fall beyond my assumed target for wave ((iv)) then I had to factor in this new evidence. No market forecasting method is 100% accurate but with Elliott Waves you get context which can save you from making huge losses.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3004 Posted : Thursday, October 18, 2018 4:05:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
This is back them days in 2014. The wave labels may have changed but the conclusion remained the same - a bear market of huge proportions. No one believed then.

mnandii wrote:
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF THE NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

Now to our analysis:




CONCLUSION

NSE 20 Share index is over-extended and it is time for a big correction in the market.

Regards to all.





TODAY:


I was making the forecast for a huge bear market at the point currently labelled blue [y]X (when the index was about 5000). Wazuans almost killed me for daring to go against the established opinion that the path for the market was up and up.

Even today I want to state categorically that when the market will eventually bottom (at about 1700 - 1400) wazuans will be on the opposite camp, fully bearish and making negative statements about the market! Yes, there will be blood on the streets(literally and metarphorically) but that will be the best time to buy.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3005 Posted : Thursday, October 18, 2018 4:39:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
VituVingiSana wrote:
@mnandii said "It is important to note that as Safaricom continues to fall so will the profitability of the company."
Why would the profitability of Safcom (the business) trend the fall in the price of the shares?

On a fundamental basis, I understand why the (potential) DECREASE in profits could lead to a lower share price BUT I do not understand why profits would follow a decrease in the share price.


This is the whole point on Elliott Waves and Socionomics. . Social actions (we can put fundamentals under this) follow social mood and not vice versa (as is commonly assumed).

The price of the share is a barometer to measure the tenor of social mood. When the market trends up then social mood is trending up(becomes increasingly positive). When the market trends down then this is evidence that social mood is trending down(becomes increasingly negative). When mood is positive then expect bullish fundamentals and when mood is negative then expect bearish fundamentals.

Socionomics makes a distinction between Economics and Finance. The laws that apply to Economics do not apply to Finance.

In short, what people assume to be the causes of social actions (e.g good fundamentals) are actually symptoms. Social actions have a cause which is the mass psychology of the crowd which can be gauged (much the same way you can measure temperature) using the stock market.

Even with your example above, a decrease in profits would lead to a decrease in share price, still begs one more question - what has caused the decline in profits in the first place?!


People usually make the statement and believe it to be true that war makes people angry . But if you sit back and thoroughly question this statement you'll find that people have completely flipped the symptom and its cause. The correct statement is angry people make war. War is one of the symptoms that results when people are angry. Again negative social mood is the culprit(the cause).

The above is the same reasoning that attends understanding Finance.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#3006 Posted : Thursday, October 18, 2018 7:55:11 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
This is back them days in 2014. The wave labels may have changed but the conclusion remained the same - a bear market of huge proportions. No one believed then.

mnandii wrote:
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF THE NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

Now to our analysis:




CONCLUSION

NSE 20 Share index is over-extended and it is time for a big correction in the market.

Regards to all.





TODAY:


I was making the forecast for a huge bear market at the point currently labelled blue [y]X (when the index was about 5000). Wazuans almost killed me for daring to go against the established opinion that the path for the market was up and up.

Even today I want to state categorically that when the market will eventually bottom (at about 1700 - 1400) wazuans will be on the opposite camp, fully bearish and making negative statements about the market! Yes, there will be blood on the streets(literally and metarphorically) but that will be the best time to buy.

You are killing guys who are clinging onto every small bounce in the market to proclaim that a bull is in the offing.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Angelica _ann
#3007 Posted : Thursday, October 18, 2018 8:06:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
But guys help me out, I attended ... attended smile some unit in class that claimed that bank interest rate & bond rates are inverse to stock prices. How come in our economy Kenya, it seems that both are falling together i.e. same direction. Saidieni priss.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
mnandii
#3008 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2018 3:28:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
This is back them days in 2014. The wave labels may have changed but the conclusion remained the same - a bear market of huge proportions. No one believed then.

mnandii wrote:
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF THE NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

Now to our analysis:




CONCLUSION

NSE 20 Share index is over-extended and it is time for a big correction in the market.

Regards to all.





TODAY:


I was making the forecast for a huge bear market at the point currently labelled blue [y]X (when the index was about 5000). Wazuans almost killed me for daring to go against the established opinion that the path for the market was up and up.

Even today I want to state categorically that when the market will eventually bottom (at about 1700 - 1400) wazuans will be on the opposite camp, fully bearish and making negative statements about the market! Yes, there will be blood on the streets(literally and metarphorically) but that will be the best time to buy.

You are killing guys who are clinging onto every small bounce in the market to proclaim that a bull is in the offing.


Hehehe!

Watulie like about 1 - years. Let them keep hard cash (not in the bank!) They'll reap abundantly.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3009 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2018 3:33:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Angelica _ann wrote:
But guys help me out, I attended ... attended smile some unit in class that claimed that bank interest rate & bond rates are inverse to stock prices. How come in our economy Kenya, it seems that both are falling together i.e. same direction. Saidieni priss.


Some of these myths are covered here:

Quote:
“I don’t get it. I bought stock in a company that beat earnings, yet the price tanked. I lost money.”

This is a common frustration for investors. The supposed correlation between earnings and price is deeply rooted in investor “conventional wisdom” and media stories.

The presumed correlation is this: Corporate earnings reflect the success and thus value of companies; therefore if you can forecast earnings, you can forecast stock prices.

It’s a nice theory…but doesn’t hold water in real life. Here’s why…

Suppose you knew that corporate earnings would rise strongly for the next six quarters straight. Would you buy stocks?



The chart shows that in 1973-1974, earnings per share for S&P 500 companies soared for six quarters in a row, during which time the same companies’ stock prices suffered their largest collapse since 1937-1942. This is not a small departure from the expected relationship but a history-making departure. Moreover, the S&P bottomed in early October 1974, and earnings per share then turned down for twelve straight months, just as the S&P turned up!

A speculator with foreknowledge of these earnings trends would have made two perfectly incorrect decisions, buying near the top of the market and selling at the bottom. Such glaring exceptions to the idea of a causal relationship between corporate earnings and stock prices pose a challenge for conventional economic theory.

In real life, no one knows what earnings will do, so no one would have made such bad decisions on the basis of foreknowledge. Unfortunately, the basis that investors actually use is estimated earnings, which incorporate analysts’ lagging trend-extrapolation bias, making their investment decisions often even worse timed than advance knowledge of earnings would allow.

Tag and share this post with other investors, so they can make educated decisions based on real correlations.

This is just one of the many false assumptions investors build their portfolio on. See the 10 most dangerous "Market Myths" exposed now -- Free!

Market Myths Exposed e-book

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mlennyma
#3010 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2018 3:35:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,173
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
This is back them days in 2014. The wave labels may have changed but the conclusion remained the same - a bear market of huge proportions. No one believed then.

mnandii wrote:
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF THE NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

Now to our analysis:




CONCLUSION

NSE 20 Share index is over-extended and it is time for a big correction in the market.

Regards to all.





TODAY:


I was making the forecast for a huge bear market at the point currently labelled blue [y]X (when the index was about 5000). Wazuans almost killed me for daring to go against the established opinion that the path for the market was up and up.

Even today I want to state categorically that when the market will eventually bottom (at about 1700 - 1400) wazuans will be on the opposite camp, fully bearish and making negative statements about the market! Yes, there will be blood on the streets(literally and metarphorically) but that will be the best time to buy.

You are killing guys who are clinging onto every small bounce in the market to proclaim that a bull is in the offing.


Hehehe!

Watulie like about 1 - years. Let them keep hard cash (not in the bank!) They'll reap abundantly.

God works mysteriously defying traditions
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mnandii
#3011 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2018 3:40:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
For those who are more intelectually inclined go here:



Quote:

Abstract

Neoclassical economics does not offer a useful model of finance, because economic and financial behavior have different motivational dynamics. The law of supply and demand operates among rational valuers to produce equilibrium in the marketplace for utilitarian goods and services. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a related model applied to financial markets. The socionomic theory of finance (STF) posits that contextual differences between economics and finance produce different behavior, so that in finance the law of supply and demand is irrelevant, and EMH is inappropriate. In finance, uncertainty about valuations by other homogeneous agents induces unconscious, non-rational herding, which follows endogenously regulated fluctuations in social mood, which in turn determine financial fluctuations. This dynamic produces non-mean-reverting dynamism in financial markets, not equilibrium.

Keywords: socionomic theory of finance, socionomics, herding, behavioral finance, efficient market hypothesis

JEL Classification: G1, D81



Download the e-paper here


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3012 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2018 3:46:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
>>>You can predict news



Quote:
The Socionomic Theory of Finance
Waves of social mood affect every aspect of your life. They regulate the tone of politics, popular entertainment, the economy and the stock market. You can use these influences to your advantage. Society can't do it, but an individual can. You will learn to read the news in a completely different way. You may even start predicting the news. This book will open a whole new world to you. It is exciting, intellectually fulfilling, fun and practical. Many readers say it changed their lives. Find out why.


Buy From Amazon or ElliottWave International
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Angelica _ann
#3013 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2018 3:50:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
mnandii wrote:
For those who are more intelectually inclined go here:



Quote:

Abstract

Neoclassical economics does not offer a useful model of finance, because economic and financial behavior have different motivational dynamics. The law of supply and demand operates among rational valuers to produce equilibrium in the marketplace for utilitarian goods and services. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a related model applied to financial markets. The socionomic theory of finance (STF) posits that contextual differences between economics and finance produce different behavior, so that in finance the law of supply and demand is irrelevant, and EMH is inappropriate. In finance, uncertainty about valuations by other homogeneous agents induces unconscious, non-rational herding, which follows endogenously regulated fluctuations in social mood, which in turn determine financial fluctuations. This dynamic produces non-mean-reverting dynamism in financial markets, not equilibrium.

Keywords: socionomic theory of finance, socionomics, herding, behavioral finance, efficient market hypothesis

JEL Classification: G1, D81



Download the e-paper here




Excludes .... you know yourselves ... dont bother pris smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
lochaz-index
#3014 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2018 12:03:05 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
The market should resume its lower lows journey after that short break. Next breathing space will be available at around the 2500 mark.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mnandii
#3015 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2018 9:12:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
As stated July 17, 2018:

mnandii wrote:


USDKES. A move above 101.80 will confirm weakening of the KES. That move will likely take the pair to above 107, the previous high.


Now trying to push above 104.00s
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3016 Posted : Thursday, November 22, 2018 11:06:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
I have stated here previously that the stock market leads the economy. I did say at one point that if/when the NSE 20 Share Index will have fallen sufficiently down then increasingly negative social actions would follow e.g

1. A fall in tax revenues

2. Increasingly violent clashes btw the public and the state and public and public.

3. More female leadership

4. Legislation to allow previously considered hard drugs e.g marijuana (a marijuana bill to regulate use of the drug is currently before parliament).

5. Wars/clashes both within the country(e.g. tribal) and with external forces.

6. Expect more retrenchments. In fact if you are employed then start to prepare for a situation in which you may lose or get reduced monthly income.

7. More debt defaults. If you have loans then repay them before it becomes increasingly difficult to make the monthly deductions. If you have no loans don't take any. The government itself will default on its loans.

8. Expect bank crises.

9. Keep hard currency - goes hand in hand with 8 above. Expect the government to start raiding your savings

etc

Flagging Revenue Performance

Quote:
The Treasury could be forced into steeper spending cuts than previously anticipated at the beginning of the year if it is to achieve the projected fiscal deficit of 5.7 percent by next June due to flagging revenue performance.

The government has already cut billions in the budget amidst tax rise.

Economic analysts at Commercial Bank of Africa (CBA) say in the latest weekly note that the shortfall of Sh60.5 billion in tax collections for the three months to September 2018 means the Treasury has a tight balancing act of cutting expenditure without harming the prospects of growth, with higher borrowing one of the options on the table.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
wukan
#3017 Posted : Thursday, November 22, 2018 5:06:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,567
@mnandii have you ever looked at the Athens General Composite Index? It has two twin peaks around 6300 and 5300 then moved all the way down to 600. Never thought an index can be hammered that much. That is one massive negative social mood in Greece
lochaz-index
#3018 Posted : Thursday, November 22, 2018 5:56:45 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
wukan wrote:
@mnandii have you ever looked at the Athens General Composite Index? It has two twin peaks around 6300 and 5300 then moved all the way down to 600. Never thought an index can be hammered that much. That is one massive negative social mood in Greece

Have a look at the Cyprus Dow Jones. From a high of about 1600 pre-GFC it has tanked to the current level of 39...at some point it had lost 99.98%. It has been a brutal and relentless bear for 10+ years. Basically all stock holdings became worthless akin to currency in a hyperinflationary economy. A big factor of the ruthless bear was the government confiscating people's savings in order to settle debt obligations.

Greece is staring at another banking crisis...if that is even possible. Bank stocks have shed about 60% market cap since May this year as the weaklings get the short end of the stick in a risk off environment.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Monk
#3019 Posted : Friday, November 23, 2018 8:55:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 245
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
@mnandii have you ever looked at the Athens General Composite Index? It has two twin peaks around 6300 and 5300 then moved all the way down to 600. Never thought an index can be hammered that much. That is one massive negative social mood in Greece

Have a look at the Cyprus Dow Jones. From a high of about 1600 pre-GFC it has tanked to the current level of 39...at some point it had lost 99.98%. It has been a brutal and relentless bear for 10+ years. Basically all stock holdings became worthless akin to currency in a hyperinflationary economy. A big factor of the ruthless bear was the government confiscating people's savings in order to settle debt obligations.

Greece is staring at another banking crisis...if that is even possible. Bank stocks have shed about 60% market cap since May this year as the weaklings get the short end of the stick in a risk off environment.


According to this article, ECB forced that unprecedented action on the Cyprus government. The politics in Germany at the time also seem to have contributed.
https://www.economist.co...what-happened-in-cyprus
lochaz-index
#3020 Posted : Friday, November 23, 2018 11:27:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Monk wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
@mnandii have you ever looked at the Athens General Composite Index? It has two twin peaks around 6300 and 5300 then moved all the way down to 600. Never thought an index can be hammered that much. That is one massive negative social mood in Greece

Have a look at the Cyprus Dow Jones. From a high of about 1600 pre-GFC it has tanked to the current level of 39...at some point it had lost 99.98%. It has been a brutal and relentless bear for 10+ years. Basically all stock holdings became worthless akin to currency in a hyperinflationary economy. A big factor of the ruthless bear was the government confiscating people's savings in order to settle debt obligations.

Greece is staring at another banking crisis...if that is even possible. Bank stocks have shed about 60% market cap since May this year as the weaklings get the short end of the stick in a risk off environment.


According to this article, ECB forced that unprecedented action on the Cyprus government. The politics in Germany at the time also seem to have contributed.
https://www.economist.co...what-happened-in-cyprus

EU is a perfect example of financial and economic dictatorship if ever there was one. Greece too suffered in large part thanks to troika.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Users browsing this topic
Guest (3)
186 Pages«<149150151152153>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2024 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.