Considering SCOM's weight in the market, if it dares go that low, the amount of bloodshed on the other counters will be massive. Wengine tuko mlango ya ICU tunachungulia ndani

Meanwhile, Safaricom is going into home security, leveraging on the growing fibre network. Huge scaling potential there. Currently piloting at Ngei Estate, Lang'ata.

The Point is this: Religion ISN'T the CAUSE for moral bankruptcy. Though moral bankruptcy and religiousness tends to occur concurrently, the reason WHY that is so is because of something that we all share called Mass Psychology. Mass Psychology is responsible for people buying shares or selling, fashion trends, going to war or making peace etc. When Mass Psychology is trending positive then people buy shares(resulting is share price increase), they use Science and reason, they are generally happier, there's peace and Accord. When Mass Psychology trends negative then people start using magical thinking rather than reason and science, they sell shares(resulting in bear markets), they tend to be more religious (hence Ndii's observation), there's conflict resulting in wars, women tend to wear clothes that cover almost whole body(rather than in positive psychology where they tend to wear miniskirts) and many other social actions. So at David Ndii is correct in his observation that religiousness and moral bankruptcy occur simultaneously but he has failed to make the correct link for the CAUSE. For more go to www.socionomics.net.

There is no mistaking it now. Safaricom is in for a major bear market. The move below 24.00 was especially telling since it confirmed that the bullish zigzag pattern that we had assumed was developing from the 33.50s level is no longer tenable(i.e the zigzag was supposed to have ended at 24.00 level and Safcom was to then rise to above 33.50s).

As it stands now, Safaricom is dropping in an impulse wave pattern from the 33.50s high(I'll post a chart to show the subdivisions of this impulse wave A ).

Targets for the end of wave A are 21.69(being the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the whole impulse wave rise from about 2.50 (i.e start of public trading in Safcom shares) to the 33.50s high) and 18.03(being 50% retracement) and a more likely target of 16.20s. This 16.20s target is very likely since Elliott tells us that if wave five in an impulse wave is extended(i.e showing elaborate subdivisions and is elongated as our wave 5 is in this case) then we should expect a swift retracement that finds suppoort at the second wave of the extension(that being 16.20, the end of circled wave ((ii)))

NB: Wave 5 starts at 12.70s (the end of wave 4) and ends at 33.50s and is composed of circled waves ((i)) to ((v)).

In the fullness of time I expect Safaricom to fall as shown in the pattern depicted by the lines labelled as A B and C on the extreme right of the graph. I.E SAn initial impulse wave drop(which is currently underway) to complete wave A, a modest upward retracement to complete wave B then a final fall that goes downward beyond the end of wave A to complete wave C. If this scenario proves correct then Safaricom should eventually find support at about 14.00s (being the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement OR at 9.17(being the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the whole rise from 2.50s to 33.50s.

It is important to note that as Safaricom continues to fall so will the profitability of the company.

In Elliott Wave Corrective formations a scenario where Safaricom price rise above 33.50s before the conclusion of the bear market is entirely possible but so far evidence is heavily tilted on the side of the scenario I have painted above. If however the current falling wave A turns out to be three waves instead of the expected five waves then we should expect a rise of wave B to to go slightly above 33.50s.

SUMMARY:
safaricom is falling in wave A of a major bear market whose target is about 16.20s. Once wave A completes then wave B will rise countertrend to retrace a small portion of wave A. Once wave B completes at a level somewhere significantly below 33.50s then wave C will ensue and will drop further below the end of wave A to a likely target of about 9.17 (being the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the whole Safaricom Share price rise from the 2.50s level).

FIBONACCI AND THE SAFARICOM COUNTER:

After nudging from Charles Collins, R.N. Elliott researched and came to the conclusion that the Golden Ratio(Fibonacci) is the basis of the Wave Principle. I can count at least three instances where Fibonacci mathematics apply as regards the Safaricom Share Price:

a)



Wave 3, at about 18.00 is Fibonacci 4.236 X wave 1. Wave 1 starts at 2.50 and ends at about 6.10 thus
wave 1 = (6.10 - 2.50) = 3.60

The end of wave 2 is 2.80
Therefore, (3.60 X 4.236) = 15.25
Adding 15.25 + 2.80 = 18.05 (which happens to be the end of wave 3)

b) Wave 4 retraced approximately Fibonacci 38.2% of wave 3 (This is a common tendency and is named a guideline according to Elliott literature).

c)



Wave 1 through to wave 3 is the same size as wave 5 if wave 5 is counted from the start of wave 4 (18.00). Thus the Elliott guideline that waves one through to wave three usually form a golden ratio with wave five.
Figuratively,
Wave 1 through 3 = (18.00 - 2.50) = 15.50
And wave 5 = (33.50 - 18.00)= 15.50

ETC

@mnandii said "It is important to note that as Safaricom continues to fall so will the profitability of the company."
Why would the profitability of Safcom (the business) trend the fall in the price of the shares?

On a fundamental basis, I understand why the (potential) DECREASE in profits could lead to a lower share price BUT I do not understand why profits would follow a decrease in the share price.