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the deal		#21 Posted : Sunday, September 30, 2018 9:38:41 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		VituVingiSana wrote: obiero wrote: the deal wrote: Good performance must be due to maize subsidy by Uhuru... Dividend delayed that much because GoK hasn't paid yet.. Hopefully GoK pays otherwise @VVS will be here throwing tantrums ... Anyways we're is the cash flow statement? I hate companies which release full year results with little information... How do we analyze this? On the prospects of the company... 1. Sector is fragmented but there is room for consolidation... Unga can start buying small market plays if they want to gain market share although recent buy turned out to be a dud! 2. Growth as Kenyas middle class expands @the deal middle class take the least maize you would ever imagine Bingo. Wheat not maize is where the growth is. Jamaa is more worried about the mealie meal that fewer urban middle-class eat regularly. Why worry about the matatus going to Rongai from CBD when you want to catch a flight from JKIA? For Unga, the next phase of expansion is soya products. Like any other sensible business, Unga took opportunistic advantage of the duty-free maize and stayed in the good books of GoK by suspending production of Hostess in favor of Jogoo and Hodari. Agreed on wheat and soya beans.....its been a few years since I have been to Nairobi... Just remembered how Kenyans love chapati... Different scenario here... We love ugali... Anyways Unga is an interesting company in an interesting sector...company can grow threw 1. Vertical integration (problem is persistent droughts & seaboard) 2. Acquisitions (I strongly suggest another go at this) 3. Organically (new products) With Nakumatt & Uchumi gone... Cash flow should improve significantly If the African disposable incomes ever rise like many predict.. It will be boom time for Unga and EABL! Internet is my only source of information... So thanks @pesanane for keeping us posted!
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VituVingiSana		#22 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2018 12:40:50 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		the deal wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: obiero wrote: the deal wrote: Good performance must be due to maize subsidy by Uhuru... Dividend delayed that much because GoK hasn't paid yet.. Hopefully GoK pays otherwise @VVS will be here throwing tantrums ... Anyways we're is the cash flow statement? I hate companies which release full year results with little information... How do we analyze this? On the prospects of the company... 1. Sector is fragmented but there is room for consolidation... Unga can start buying small market plays if they want to gain market share although recent buy turned out to be a dud! 2. Growth as Kenyas middle class expands @the deal middle class take the least maize you would ever imagine Bingo. Wheat not maize is where the growth is. Jamaa is more worried about the mealie meal that fewer urban middle-class eat regularly. Why worry about the matatus going to Rongai from CBD when you want to catch a flight from JKIA? For Unga, the next phase of expansion is soya products. Like any other sensible business, Unga took opportunistic advantage of the duty-free maize and stayed in the good books of GoK by suspending production of Hostess in favor of Jogoo and Hodari. Agreed on wheat and soya beans.....its been a few years since I have been to Nairobi... Just remembered how Kenyans love chapati... Different scenario here... We love ugali... South(ern) Africans think they know what we want. It is one of the reasons why may SA firms come in with a bang but get whipped. Stanbic bought CFC and promptly chased away CFC clients. Old Mutual and UAP aren't as big as they could have been. Castle vs KBL And many others. Even SA-born MJ said we have peculiar habits but he adapted He may have dumped his SA citizenship but he took up Kenyan citizenship. Anyways Unga is an interesting company in an interesting sector...company can grow threw 1. Vertical integration (problem is persistent droughts & seaboard) The reality for Kenya is [unless we significantly improve how we grow crops] is we will remain a food-importing country 2. Acquisitions (I strongly suggest another go at this) This has to be well thought out. No more Ennsvalley type deals which was done to rip off Minority shareholders. 3. Organically (new products) Yes. Not easy but it build capacity for future expansion With Nakumatt & Uchumi gone... Cash flow should improve significantly Let's be realistic, overall sales have taken a hit since "Modern Trade" is a huge component of sales to Unga's core clientele. If the African disposable incomes ever rise like many predict.. It will be boom time for Unga and EABL! That story is over-sold. Many "middle-class" are one pay-check away from "broke" Internet is my only source of information... So thanks @pesanane for keeping us posted! 1. Register for updates from the NSE. 2. @PesaNane is great at posting info before others do but try the companies' websites too before complaining about lack of cash-flow statements. 3. E-newspaper subscriptions. Unga, for me, was never about being a 10-bagger. It was about "food" i.e. it is in an industry that is unlikely to die out in my natural lifetime. Like in any industry, management/Integrity matters and an HONEST but decent (not even brilliant) management can keep cranking out profits. No, not consistent growth in profits given the volatile nature of commodities but a decent average performance Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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VituVingiSana		#23 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2018 9:50:34 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		Miller says State blocked sale of Hostess flour https://www.businessdail...84804-j9yed6/index.html The speciality brand, popular among Kenya's middle class, was absent from retailers’ shelves for eight months up to December 2017 when the directive was lifted with increased maize harvests. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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obiero		#24 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2018 6:46:19 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: Miller says State blocked sale of Hostess flour https://www.businessdail...84804-j9yed6/index.html The speciality brand, popular among Kenya's middle class, was absent from retailers’ shelves for eight months up to December 2017 when the directive was lifted with increased maize harvests. A bandia stock KQ ABP 4.26
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VituVingiSana		#25 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2018 8:05:20 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		Unga Group to launch Eldoret wheat mill https://www.businessdail...8642-9yaoa9z/index.html “The new 300 tonnes per day wheat mill in Eldoret is scheduled for commissioning in October 2018. The company will be installing a soya meal production facility at the Dakar Road plant during the course of the 2018/19 financial year,” the firm said in a statement. Kicking out minority shareholders just when things are going to improve! The planning, financing, construction, etc was done using the minorities' funds. Then they wanted to "buy out" the minorities at a discount to NAV just when the new, efficient 300 MT/day mill was ready. Plus the Soya Mill which was also planned - time, resources - before the Takeover attempt! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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VituVingiSana		#26 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2018 8:07:32 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		“With the prevailing depressed demand and increased competition in the flour-milling business, the 2018/19 financial year is expected to be difficult and less profitable,” said the firm. >>> Cooking the books for 2018-19. Once it delists, then the profits for 2019-20 could jump! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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obiero		#27 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2018 8:22:11 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: “With the prevailing depressed demand and increased competition in the flour-milling business, the 2018/19 financial year is expected to be difficult and less profitable,” said the firm. >>> Cooking the books for 2018-19. Once it delists, then the profits for 2019-20 could jump! Nothing like cooking books. Hapa ni wenyewe wamekujia chao, small shareholders to adjust to reality KQ ABP 4.26
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VituVingiSana		#28 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2018 10:14:41 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: “With the prevailing depressed demand and increased competition in the flour-milling business, the 2018/19 financial year is expected to be difficult and less profitable,” said the firm. >>> Cooking the books for 2018-19. Once it delists, then the profits for 2019-20 could jump! Nothing like cooking books. Hapa ni wenyewe wamekujia chao, small shareholders to adjust to reality You are right. I should accept the reality like the minority (5%) KQ shareholders have. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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obiero		#29 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2018 1:05:54 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: “With the prevailing depressed demand and increased competition in the flour-milling business, the 2018/19 financial year is expected to be difficult and less profitable,” said the firm. >>> Cooking the books for 2018-19. Once it delists, then the profits for 2019-20 could jump! Nothing like cooking books. Hapa ni wenyewe wamekujia chao, small shareholders to adjust to reality You are right. I should accept the reality like the minority (5%) KQ shareholders have. Exactly KQ ABP 4.26
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VituVingiSana		#30 Posted : Thursday, October 25, 2018 7:36:39 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		AGM 6th Dec 2018 Dividend 1/- payable 31st Jan 2019 I may buy more at 38 given the decent profitability for the future. Unga Farm Care (EA) Limited opens a 5,000 MT per year Extruded Fish Feed Plant in Nairobi https://www.seaboardover...ish-feed-plant-nairobi/ and now we have "Uhuru bans Chinese fish, says its killing local market" https://www.the-star.co....g-local-market_c1835854 Also for FY 2019 into FY 2020 "Unga Group to commission new Eldoret wheat mill, plans soya meal facility" http://www.foodbusinessa...ans-soya-meal-facility/ Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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