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Thinking Outside The box (Overseas Investment Series)
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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GOLDMAN SACHS ...A BUY RATING FOR HONG KONG LISTED CHINA'S BIGGEST OIL AND GAS CONGLOMERATE CNOOCSource : Infocast Research Reports Goldman reiterates Buy rating for CNOOC (00883) (Infocast News) On CNOOC Limited's (00883) acquisition of 24.5% stake in Block 15/34 from Devon for a consideration of US$515 million, which will increase CNOOC Limited's stake in the project to 75.5%, Goldman Sachs says that it expects the extra stake will add to CNOOC Limited's total production as well as earnings modestly to the order of about 2% on a full-year basis for 2010 and 2011. The brokerage reiterates its "Buy" rating and $16 price target for the stock. CNOOC Limited is the operator of Block 15/34. ConocoPhillips holds the remaining 24.5% stake. Block 15/34 is located in the South China Sea (about 200 km south of Hong Kong) with a water depth of 100 m. Panyu 4-2/5-1 is the major producing oil field in the block, which was discovered in 1998/1999 and started production in 2003, and Panyu 11-6 is another one. CNOOC Limited disclosed that currently the gross production from the block (100%) is 49kb/d of oil. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Broker Tips:Yanzhou Coal Yanzhou Coal (1171, $15.66) 12M Target $21.90 BUY Event: Valuation of Yanzhou Coal turned attractive again after a 30% drop since May. Yanzhou Coal has been underperforming HSCEI and the peers this month. Share price fell 30% month-to date versus a 9.6% drop for the HSCEI and 12.4%, 20.4% for Shenhua (1088, $29.8) and China Coal (1898, $9.59). As earnings of Yanzhou Coal are more related to spot coal price, investors worried that the company would be hurt the most if global economy slows down due to European debt crisis. The reform of Australia resource tax and weak oil price also weighed on the stock’s underperformance. After the sharp drop in February and March, Qinhuangdao coal price resumed its uptrend in April. Qinhuangdao spot coal price has increased by about 12% since the end of March. The coal demand will step into a booming season and we estimate that spot coal price will rise further in the next few months. Share price of Yanzhou was highly correlated to the trend of spot coal price historically. Yanzhou Coal’s earnings in 1Q10, based on PRC GAAP, increased by 191% yoy to RMB 2,101mn driven by a 17.4% yoy increase in ASP and 31.3% yoy increase in sales volume. We believe the robust growth of sales volume in the first quarter was mainly due to increased sales from Felix. While the selling price of coal in Australia decreased by 43.9% yoy in the first quarter, the management has guided that the selling price in the second quarter increased sharply to US$130.96 per ton. We believe the contribution of Felix will be more significant for the rest of the year. According to the company’s projection, Yanzhou Coal’s earnings in the first half of 2010 will grow more than 100% yoy under the PRC GAAP. There are rumours that Australia government may soften the terms of projecting super resource tax, which should be positive to the share price of Yanzhou Coal. We maintain our 2010 earning forecast at RMB 6.79bn (EPS RMB 1.38)), up 65% yoy. Earnings for 2011 will grow 16.6% yoy to RMB7.92bn (EPS RMB 1.61) based on our estimates. The company is traded at 2010 PER of 10.0x and 2011 PER of 8.6x with two-year EPS CAGR of 38% and 2010 dividend yield of around 3%. Valuation of Yanzhou Coal is attractive in our view. Maintain BUY with unchanged 12-month target price of $21.9 based on 12x 2011 PER. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Broker Tips:China Railway Construction China Railway Construction (1186, $9.27) 12M Target $11.2 BUY Event: China Railway Construction announced to complete the acquisition of a Canadian-based junior mining company. China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) announced that CRCC-Tongguan Investment (CRCCTongguan) had acquired 96.9% equity interests (76,478,495 shares) of the Corriente’s diluted tradable shares at a consideration of RMB 4,154mn. CRCC-Tongguan is a joint venture of CRCC and Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group (Tongling). The two parties each hold 50% stake in the company. Corriente is listed both in Canada and U.S and engaged in exploration and development of copper, gold, silver and molybdenum mines. Corriente has four main copper mining regions with copper reserve of approx. 11.54mn tonnes on basis of 0.4% of cut-off grade of copper. Net profit of Corriente in 2008 was C$14.8mn(RMB 96.5mn). The consideration translates into 2008 PBR and PER of 3.5x and 46x respectively. We believe the acquisition will help CRCC diversify its business in future. New contracts of CRCC in the first quarters increased slightly yoy to RMB 127.9bn (overseas contracts accounting for 7.5%). The earnings for 1Q10 based on PRC GAAP grew by 47.1% yoy to RMB 1.39bn (EPS: RMB 0.11). As market worries that China will exit stimulus package and decelerate the growth of infrastructure investment, share price of CRCC was weak since the second half of 2009. However, we believe PRC government will maintain the active fiscal policy and accelerate railway infrastructure investments in the coming few years, and CRCC will definitely be a key beneficiary. EPS of 2010 and 2011 are estimated at RMB 0.64 and RMB 0.78, representing a yoy increase of 21% and 22% respectively. The counter is currently trading at 2010 and 2011 PER of 12.7x and 10.4x respectively. Although the stock price may lack short term catalyst, valuation of CRCC is attractive in our view. Maintain BUY with unchanged 12-month target of $11.2 based on 12x 2011 earnings. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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BEYOND THE HYPE ABOUT GOLD STOCKSAfrica is a aven of commodities. Gold is popular now because it is the reigning commodity. Beyond Gold there are various items that can last you for a long time to invest in. What is important is to understand what you invest in. Take a look at just a few :- All these items are traded daily in the spot markets. METALSGold, Silver,Platinum, Pellanium,Copper, Aluminium, Diamond, Tin, Rhodium, Iron Ore, Nickel, Zinc et
ENERGYCrude Oil, Natural Gas, Ethanol,Propane, Coal, Uranium, Oil Sands etc AGRICULTURALCotton, Coffee, Sugar,Lumber, Fertilizer,Cocoa,Wheat, Corn, Soyabean, Orange Juice, Cattle, Pork, Rice, Cocoa, Milk ,phosphates. As usual, look before you leap, do you due diligence, Shine your eyes well well as Nigerians say !!! Permit me to echo this article in “Thinking Outside the box series. At the moment I am sticking to Gold and Oil. Best Regards The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@ mzee young please can you give us more info on how to trade on the JSE...i.e brokers you use,commissions...stocks to buy...etc...China is good but its to far for some of us...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Mzee the deal. Take a look at my brokers site www.psgonline.co.za, in addition www.imaraspreid.co.za is equally good. JSE market is de-regulated so comission varies depending on the broker. I invest mainly in resources (Gold / Platinum) stocks and also property stocks while waiting to re-enter resources stocks. Watch out for more details when I deal holistically with south Africa investment in due course. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Research Reports MS upgrades Jiangxi Copper (00358) to Overweight (Infocast News) Morgan Stanley has upgraded Jiangxi Copper (00358) to "Overweight", saying its valuation is back to attractive levels relative to earnings forecasts. After trading down nearly 20% since its early January peak, Jiangxi Copper is now underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 10% and its valuation is back to attractive levels relative to earnings forecasts, Morgan Stanley says in a research report. The stock looks oversold, the brokerage says, upgrading the stock from "Equal-weight" to "Overweight" and maintaining the stock's price target of $19.3. On Morgan Stanley's 2011 EPS forecast of $1.93, Jiangxi Copper trades at just 7.2x price/earnings ratio and 3.9x enterprise value/EBITDA. Thus, the stock ranks quite favorably versus its Asian nonferrous peers at 12.5x price/earnings ratio and 7x enterprise value/EBITDA. Investors will soon begin to focus on the seasonal pick-up in copper demand and pricing, which could provide a near-term catalyst for the shares, the brokerage says. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Broker Tips :- Zhaojin Mining (1818, $15.94) 6M Target $19.10 BUY Event: Strong gold price will continue to support Zhaojin’s share price performance. Gold futures dropped below US$1,200 per ounce on Friday at one point amid the decline of major stock markets, commodities and euro, but quickly rebounded to US$1,220 level. This is another evidence that investors fled to gold as safe haven in the midst of uncertainties, in our view. Zhaojin has dropped 6% since May 14 as gold price retreated from its all-time high of US$1,249.4. However, we still see strong investment demand for gold as holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust has reached record high. We believe that the debt crisis in Europe will further dampen investors’ faith in fiat currency and prompt them to flee to gold as alternative assets. Robust gold price, in turn, will be a positive share price catalyst for Zhaojin. Zhaojin recently announced to acquire 55% stake of Baiyun Gold Mine from state-owned Fengcheng Gold Group at a consideration of RMB 200mn. The two will set up a new company to jointly own the gold mine, with Zhaojin owning 55% of equity interests while Fengcheng Gold Group will own the remaining 45%. Baiyun Gold Mine is a developed mine located in Fengcheng City, Liaoning with an annual gold output of approximately 344kg and gold metals reserves of more than 22,000kg. The consideration implies an acquisition cost of RMB 16.5/g, which looks cheap to us given that spot gold price is at RMB 260/g. The gold reserves and gold output of Baiyun attributable to Zhaojin only accounted for around 5.5% of company’s existing reserves and 1.3% of its annual output. However, we believe the new company can serve as a platform for Zhaojin to further explore gold resources in the area. Zhaojin signed another framework agreement with Aletai Municipal Government in Xinjiang earlier this month to invest RMB 1.0bn over the next five years in order to integrate and explore existing gold resources in the region. The region has primary proved gold reserves of more than 20,000kg. The two transactions above are some examples that show Zhaojin’s strong ability to expand into other regions outside Shandong for consolidation and acquisition opportunities, in our view. We are positive that Zhaojin will be able to deliver its expansion plan, with gold output increasing 24% in 2010 and 15% in 2011 and 2012. This compares to the 14% CAGR of its self-mined gold output between 2006-2009. We estimate that Zhaojin’s 2010 net profit will reach RMB 1,173mn (EPS RMB 0.80), representing a 56% yoy growth. Counter is now trading at 17.5x 2010 PER that we think is undemanding given the bullish trend of gold price and company’s strong output growth in the next few years. As a pure gold play, Zhaojin is the major beneficiary of the gold price rally while serving as a defensive play during time of uncertainties, in our view. Reiterate BUY with unchanged six-month target price of $19.10, implying a 21x 2010 PER The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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PRESS RELEASE: HK End-May Forex Reserves Down US$3.0 Bln Vs End-April 2010-06-07 17:00:00 Email Print Size The following is a press release from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority Monday: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced today that the official foreign currency reserve assets of Hong Kong amounted to US$256.2 billion at the end of May 2010 (end-April 2010: US$259.2 billion). There were no unsettled forward contracts at the end of May and end of April. Hong Kong is the world's seventh largest holder of foreign currency reserves based on the latest published figures, after Mainland China, Japan, Russia, Taiwan, India and Korea. The total foreign currency reserve assets of US$256.2 billion represent over nine times the currency in circulation, or about 53% of Hong Kong dollar M3. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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PRESS RELEASE: HK End-May Forex Reserves Down US$3.0 Bln Vs End-April 2010-06-07 17:00:00 The following is a press release from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority Monday: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced today that the official foreign currency reserve assets of Hong Kong amounted to US$256.2 billion at the end of May 2010 (end-April 2010: US$259.2 billion). There were no unsettled forward contracts at the end of May and end of April. Hong Kong is the world's seventh largest holder of foreign currency reserves based on the latest published figures, after Mainland China, Japan, Russia, Taiwan, India and Korea. The total foreign currency reserve assets of US$256.2 billion represent over nine times the currency in circulation, or about 53% of Hong Kong dollar M3. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Research Reports CS keeps Underweight for China oil & gas sector (Infocast News) On the official notification of the resource tax in Xinjiang put out by the tax bureau, Credit Suisse says in its research report that the tax provides exemptions for costs and quality and the effective tax rates are likely to be lower than 5%. Credit Suisse estimates that Sinopec Corp (00386) and PetroChina (00857) will have to pay about 3.5% and 4.5% resource tax in Xinjiang respectively, and the impact on 2011 EPS would be about 1% for Sinopec Corp and 2% for PetroChina. For CNOOC Limited (00883), the issue will arise when tax is rolled out to the rest of the country, the brokerage says. Credit Suisse maintains its "Underweight" rating for the China oil and Gas sector. The resource tax is assessed at 5% of sales and usage of hydrocarbons within the field are exempted from the tax. There is a 40% exemption for heavy oil, for gas with high sulphur content and for heavy tertiary oil. Credit Suisse prefers Sinopec Corp and PetroChina over CNOOC Limited within the China oil sector.The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Market News Moody's affirms ICBC, CCB and BOC ratings (Infocast News) Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed the "A1/Prime-1" long- and short-term foreign currency deposit ratings of ICBC (01398), China Construction Bank (00939) (CCB), and Bank of China (03988) (BOC). At the same time, Moody's upgraded the fundamental standalone rating of the banks to "D+/Ba1" for ICBC and CCB, and "D/Ba2" for BOC. The "A1/Prime-1" deposit ratings reflect this financial strength coupled with ongoing expectations of very strong government support if necessary. The outlook on these ratings is positive, reflecting in turn the positive outlook on China's sovereign rating. The upgrade of the fundamental standalone ratings of these three banks reflects factors including ongoing strength in the Chinese macro-economy, continuing resilience in capital strength coupled with ongoing strategies to replenish capital and a growing track record in improving corporate governance and risk management practices. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Hong Kong market opened higher on Monday, Hang Seng Index rose above 20,000 resistance level and closed 174 points higher at 20,047 by midday. H-share index gained 184 points to 11,524. New for Old Subsidy program for mainland Auto industry extended to Year End triggered the rising rally of mainland auto plays.Market turnover reduced to HK$37.9bn, reflecting the lack of buying interest. Commodity sector continued its gain while oversold steel and aluminum plays rebounded a lot, Angang Newsteel (0347.HK) added 4.6%. For other sector, basic retail necessity performed well. Of which, China Want Want (0151.HK) rose 2.7% and hit historical high. For other food stock, Mengniu(2319.HK) and Tsingtao Brewery(0168.HK) share price also performed well. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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HNK AND CHINA COMMODITY MARKET Hong Kong and China notable commodities are as follows :- Energy :- Oil & Gas, Coal Precious Metals :- Gold Base Metals :- Copper, Aluminion, Iron & Steel, Nickel China do not produce Silver, Platinum, Nickel, Ethanol and other commodities not listed. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Thanks to the strong performance of local blue chips in ADR market, Hong Kong stocks opened higher on Thursday. However, gains were narrowed on the Nikkei soft and A share market performed mixed after 3 days holiday. Hang Seng Index closed at , added points. H-share index gained points to . Market turnover was HK$bn. Local property plays advanced in general, except Henderson share price fell % on sales of 20 flats of Conduit Road had collapsed, thus analysts adjusted downward rating. Sino Biopharm (1177.HK) plunged 7.6% on shareholders selling shares. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Hong Kong stocks rallied on strong performance of US and Asian markets. Hang Seng Index rose on the eight consecutive trading days and finished the day 148 points higher at 20,286. H-share index gained 39 points to 11,622. Market turnover was HK$55.6bn. Gold plays surged on rising gold price, of which, Zhaojin (1818.HK) soared 5.2%. State Council issued notice that it will prevent steel sector to suffer from too rapid capacity growth and will also shut down obsolete capacity, Angang (0347.HK) and Maanshan iron (0323.HK) slightly rose 0.7% and 0.3% respectively. Tencent (0700.HK) have seen buying interest after plunging in the earlier session which rose 3.8%. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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USE OF COALWe use coal in many different ways. One of the most important ways we use coal is to make electricity. Power plants burn coal to produce energy in the form of heat for changing water to steam. The steam turns the blades of a turbine which spins a generator to produce electricity. About half of the electricity in the United States comes from burning coal. We use electricity every day in many ways. Some examples of ways that we use electricity are heating, cooling and lighting our homes and cooking and refrigerating our food. By-products of coal are also used by companies to make items such as steel, cosmetics, and tar. c The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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COAL STOCKS IN HNK MARKET 1171 - Yanzhon Coal 1898 - China Coal China is the second world biggest producer of Coal after US The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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People Bank of China announced to re-start of the Rmb exchange rate reform, further increase the flexibility of RMB. Although People Bank of China further added that RMB will have see any one-off gain, investors believe RMB would continue to appreciate which trigger buying interest on Hong Kong stock. The Hang Seng Index opened higher and extended its gain afterward. The Hang Seng Index finished the day 625 points higher at 20,912 while the H share index added 512 points to 12,134. Market turnover rose to HK$90.2bn. Agricultural Bank of China will start to offer share at month end, mainland banking sector performed well with CCB(0939.HK) rose 5.0% which is also the most active stock. Manufacturers with market target in China but raw material sourced overseas boost. Of which, paper company like ND Paper (2689.HK), steel plays like Angang Newsteel(0347.HK) and petroleum stock (0386.HK) share price rose 4.3-8.8%. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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People Bank of China announced to re-start of the Rmb exchange rate reform, further increase the flexibility of RMB. Although People Bank of China further added that RMB will have see any one-off gain, investors believe RMB would continue to appreciate which trigger buying interest on Hong Kong stock. The Hang Seng Index opened higher and extended its gain afterward. The Hang Seng Index finished the day 625 points higher at 20,912 while the H share index added 512 points to 12,134. Market turnover rose to HK$90.2bn. Agricultural Bank of China will start to offer share at month end, mainland banking sector performed well with CCB(0939.HK) rose 5.0% which is also the most active stock. Manufacturers with market target in China but raw material sourced overseas boost. Of which, paper company like ND Paper (2689.HK), steel plays like Angang Newsteel(0347.HK) and petroleum stock (0386.HK) share price rose 4.3-8.8%. China's newfound dedication to yuan flexibility helped the US stock market to perform well on early Monday while the Dow once rose 140 points. However, stocks pulled back as investors questioned the effectiveness of what is expected to be a gradual change. Especially higher costs on imports from China weighed on retailers. The Dow and the Nasdaq closed 8 points (to 10,442) and 21 points (to 2,289) lower respectively. Given the retreat of local blue chips in the US ADR market as well as the benchmark is technically overbought, we expect to see some profit taking pressure today. Investors will keep a close eye on A share market The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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