Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:If I was going to genuinely share in the future with Seaboard and Ndegwas then I do not mind a measly dividend. Look at Jubilee and DTB.
In this case, the significant expansion was planned and executed while we were shareholders and using our funds. Then the attempt to buy us out at below BV.
I should not be surprised given the Ndegwas are just a polished version of Merali.
This comes back to Corporate Governance. I was blind-sided. It's just a matter of time before I bail out of the NIC I have.
Would u know what Ungas market share is?
There are a number of sectors but the answer is
No.
Kenya's production data is incomplete in the milled maize sector given the prevalence of informal businesses. A lot of maize is milled in posho mills.
The same with animal feeds i.e. multiple manufacturers esp informal + self-manufacture of feeds.
Wheat may have some stats but I don't have industry stats on hand.
The installed capacity (including Eldoret's 300MT) is about 800MT/day if I recall what was said at the AGM. The effective capacity given the logistics, power cuts, maintenance downtime, older equipment, etc will be lower.
Hmm so no moat here
Well managed but it is not Apple.
“When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.” Warren Buffett
Not saying this will happen to Unga but if there is no moat ...
Economics - This is not a high growth sector. It's FMCG and in a politically sensitive sector. Slow but steady. It will have good and bad years but we will have to eat.
Moat - Agreed and that's why I did not pay a premium for the shares. That said, I do not mind being paid a premium for my shares.
Very few listed firms have moats. Even those with moats can be invaded or new techniques used to overcome the moats. Investing is not easy.
Barclays and SCBK were toppled by Equity, DTB, etc despite what seemed like a huge headstart/moat.
KQ - Zombie. This despite the "National Carrier" tag.
Uchumi - Overtaken by Nakumatt which also collapsed, then by Tuskys, Naivas and Carrefour.
EA Cables - Once an unstoppable manufacturing behemoth but wow a shell.
Marshalls - Once the 504s went away...
KenolKobil - Up then down and now back up.
Mumias - It was THE sugar firm.
Unlisted
Airtel was the go-to network at one point.
Telkom/KPT&C was a monopoly but then came the cord-cutters. Safaricom was once a 100% subsidiary.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett