You buy the dollar. Ever since GoK did Eurobonds there is an inverse relationship b/w KE market and dollar index

I'm well versed with the politicians' code of conduct. The current lot seem not to have the guile, temerity nor the foresight to pull off that stunt successfully. Secondly, politicians cook up a crisis they can either manage or pass on to the next regime but most importantly one that doesn't consume/cost them. This one will be an expensive venture in terms of political capital once the chickens come home to roost. Again Italy comes to mind, since the turn of the decade they have had close to 10 PMs with the current one already facing strong headwinds before he can settle in office. Same scenario played out in Greece since the European debt crisis. Spain has been ushered into the same realm.

KE is on a keynesian treadmill and a monetary strait jacket(no little thanks to the interest caps). I haven't got a proper read on the cbk governor other than the fact that he is an inflation hawk. Some MPC tools have been rendered blunt or irrelevant hence denying the economy some pressure valves to keep it chugging in close to optimal conditions. One of the pressure valves is the KES. By blunting the cbr, KES is in some kind of auto pilot heavily dependent on FDI and diaspora remittances. The Argentine cb jacked their benchmark rate by 40% to stem outflows and prop the peso. Does cbk have to the same luxury?

Puffing up on govt debt(central planning utopia as opposed to market based) to drive growth has only one end...deflation. No two ways about it. The way I look at it the policy makers are being dealt curve balls(especially on interest rates and the USD) with limited ammo in their quiver. The proposed ammendments to have other bodies executing cbk roles suggest the governor is an impediment to treasury's ambition of inflation finance. Good luck playing that fiddle.

Market is poor at pricing macros in the short-term, in the long run it is pretty efficient. The short term hurrah checked in last year, doubt much upside will be achieved save for the occasional dead cat bounce till the dust properly settles.

Currency wise yes there will be inflation as GoK turns on the spigots but real asset worth will swing the other way aka deflation more so if the hunt for taxes gets overly vigilant and banks are still not lending to the private sector.

The 3275 level is holding. Expect upward reversal to above 4110. Once the index exceeds 3400 I'll give targets.

USDKES. A move above 101.80 will confirm weakening of the KES. That move will likely take the pair to above 107, the previous high.

Nothing happens till the US mid-term elections in which Trump/Republicans are going to win bigly. Thereafter EMs will feel the pain.

Broke below 3295 which was critical support vis a vis the 2017 relief rally. Tough for bulls with wanjiku about to be squeezed further by increased taxes. Let's see how the market handles the 3000 mark.

I expect Safcom to continue dropping in circle wave ((iv)) and find support at about 25.00. Thereafter it should rise in wave circled wave ((v)) to above 33.00.

Market broke below the your stated support level. Is this analysis still valid?

Would also like to get your take on KE's social fabric particularly on citizens vs the govt.

Absolutely....much respect