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NMG HY 2018
rwitre
#1 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 12:21:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 507
Location: Nairobi
sparkly
#2 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 12:36:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi


Poor
Life is short. Live passionately.
Pesa Nane
#3 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 1:03:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Sad
adapt or die
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 1:41:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
It's just a matter of time before they put up their properties for sale.
And it's OK. Up and down. Media has changed.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
rwitre
#5 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 3:20:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 507
Location: Nairobi
I like the management here. They are not resisting change. Rather, they are embracing it and looking to get ahead and grow new revenue streams- online TV, directory and ticketing platform for movies, events & retailers, lifestyle platform, partnerships in the education sector, events, and one am particularly excited about, the Lit Music record label. It has lots of potential.

As a result, digital revenue has been on an increase of 6%. (Direct costs have also shot up by 27%, but that's understandable considering the rollout of the new platforms)

I also like how, instead of yielding to established journalists wanting payhikes “that equal their fame”, vis-à-vis the recent poaching by Royal Media, BBC, Media Max et. al, they chose to let them go and develop younger talent with fresh ideas. Hence there are cost reductions (like in TV down by 21%)
- Overall cost of sales down 11%

ALAFU my problem with government- it owes NMG 726 million. Kazi ni kuwazungusha. Treasury to blame for Sh2.5bn media debt, says Joe Mucheru

My concerns on decreased turnover are assuaged by the fact that it’s a tough business environment, and management is not making excuses. They are taking steps to turn things around. That having been said, the moment they slack off, I’m jumping ship. But for now, I’ll sit tight.

The KSh. 1.50 interim dividend will calm jittery nerves. (Though it’s down from 2.50 - but no worries, let’s not eat everything today and go hungry tomorrow). Even if end year total dividend is slashed to Sh. 8, NMG will have a dividend yield of 9%, higher than nearly all firms on the NSE.

In summary, NMG management looks to be steering this ship well through turbulent waters. Tutabaki ndani tungoje FY results.

young
#6 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 3:27:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
rwitre wrote:
I like the management here. They are not resisting change. Rather, they are embracing it and looking to get ahead and grow new revenue streams- online TV, directory and ticketing platform for movies, events & retailers, lifestyle platform, partnerships in the education sector, events, and one am particularly excited about, the Lit Music record label. It has lots of potential.

As a result, digital revenue has been on an increase of 6%. (Direct costs have also shot up by 27%, but that's understandable considering the rollout of the new platforms)

I also like how, instead of yielding to established journalists wanting payhikes “that equal their fame”, vis-à-vis the recent poaching by Royal Media, BBC, Media Max et. al, they chose to let them go and develop younger talent with fresh ideas. Hence there are cost reductions (like in TV down by 21%)
- Overall cost of sales down 11%

ALAFU my problem with government- it owes NMG 726 million. Kazi ni kuwazungusha. Treasury to blame for Sh2.5bn media debt, says Joe Mucheru

My concerns on decreased turnover are assuaged by the fact that it’s a tough business environment, and management is not making excuses. They are taking steps to turn things around. That having been said, the moment they slack off, I’m jumping ship. But for now, I’ll sit tight.

The KSh. 1.50 interim dividend will calm jittery nerves. (Though it’s down from 2.50 - but no worries, let’s not eat everything today and go hungry tomorrow). Even if end year total dividend is slashed to Sh. 8, NMG will have a dividend yield of 9%, higher than nearly all firms on the NSE.

In summary, NMG management looks to be steering this ship well through turbulent waters. Tutabaki ndani tungoje FY results.



I concur.
Even a total dividend if 6 Bob (1.5+4.5) is good enough at this moment.
NMG is really an income stock for long termers. Just like Stan chart.

This counter is not however good enough for speculators or those that want to take sshort term position for capital appreciation.

They were extremely generous last year as the total dividend of 10 Bob (2.5+7.5) was above around 8.6 Bob EPS. It means they dipped into their reserve to finance part of the FY 2017 dividend.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
murchr
#7 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 3:32:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
rwitre wrote:
I like the management here. They are not resisting change. Rather, they are embracing it and looking to get ahead and grow new revenue streams- online TV, directory and ticketing platform for movies, events & retailers, lifestyle platform, partnerships in the education sector, events, and one am particularly excited about, the Lit Music record label. It has lots of potential.

As a result, digital revenue has been on an increase of 6%. (Direct costs have also shot up by 27%, but that's understandable considering the rollout of the new platforms)

I also like how, instead of yielding to established journalists wanting payhikes “that equal their fame”, vis-à-vis the recent poaching by Royal Media, BBC, Media Max et. al, they chose to let them go and develop younger talent with fresh ideas. Hence there are cost reductions (like in TV down by 21%)
- Overall cost of sales down 11%

ALAFU my problem with government- it owes NMG 726 million. Kazi ni kuwazungusha. Treasury to blame for Sh2.5bn media debt, says Joe Mucheru

My concerns on decreased turnover are assuaged by the fact that it’s a tough business environment, and management is not making excuses. They are taking steps to turn things around. That having been said, the moment they slack off, I’m jumping ship. But for now, I’ll sit tight.

The KSh. 1.50 interim dividend will calm jittery nerves. (Though it’s down from 2.50 - but no worries, let’s not eat everything today and go hungry tomorrow). Even if end year total dividend is slashed to Sh. 8, NMG will have a dividend yield of 9%, higher than nearly all firms on the NSE.

In summary, NMG management looks to be steering this ship well through turbulent waters. Tutabaki ndani tungoje FY results.



This is what they should have done 5 years ago. But well and good better late than never. I hope Kiboro retires soon. He's a spent force he couldnt see the change coming even after noticing that his grandson does not read newspapers and listen to news ut broadcasts. It still hasn't happened to them that online news is instant. I dont see anything about their HY18 on Business Daily.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Ebenyo
#8 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 3:53:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
young wrote:
rwitre wrote:
I like the management here. They are not resisting change. Rather, they are embracing it and looking to get ahead and grow new revenue streams- online TV, directory and ticketing platform for movies, events & retailers, lifestyle platform, partnerships in the education sector, events, and one am particularly excited about, the Lit Music record label. It has lots of potential.

As a result, digital revenue has been on an increase of 6%. (Direct costs have also shot up by 27%, but that's understandable considering the rollout of the new platforms)

I also like how, instead of yielding to established journalists wanting payhikes “that equal their fame”, vis-à-vis the recent poaching by Royal Media, BBC, Media Max et. al, they chose to let them go and develop younger talent with fresh ideas. Hence there are cost reductions (like in TV down by 21%)
- Overall cost of sales down 11%

ALAFU my problem with government- it owes NMG 726 million. Kazi ni kuwazungusha. Treasury to blame for Sh2.5bn media debt, says Joe Mucheru

My concerns on decreased turnover are assuaged by the fact that it’s a tough business environment, and management is not making excuses. They are taking steps to turn things around. That having been said, the moment they slack off, I’m jumping ship. But for now, I’ll sit tight.

The KSh. 1.50 interim dividend will calm jittery nerves. (Though it’s down from 2.50 - but no worries, let’s not eat everything today and go hungry tomorrow). Even if end year total dividend is slashed to Sh. 8, NMG will have a dividend yield of 9%, higher than nearly all firms on the NSE.

In summary, NMG management looks to be steering this ship well through turbulent waters. Tutabaki ndani tungoje FY results.



I concur.
Even a total dividend if 6 Bob (1.5+4.5) is good enough at this moment.
NMG is really an income stock for long termers. Just like Stan chart.
They were extremely generous last year as the total dividend of 10 Bob (2.5+7.5) was above around 8.6 Bob EPS. It means they dipped into their reserve to finance part of the FY 2017 dividend.


slashing interim dividend from 2.50 to 1.50 is very wrong.That affects the annual dividend yield for income investors.And the market will judge it harshly with a tumbling price.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 9:40:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
young wrote:
rwitre wrote:
I like the management here. They are not resisting change. Rather, they are embracing it and looking to get ahead and grow new revenue streams- online TV, directory and ticketing platform for movies, events & retailers, lifestyle platform, partnerships in the education sector, events, and one am particularly excited about, the Lit Music record label. It has lots of potential.

As a result, digital revenue has been on an increase of 6%. (Direct costs have also shot up by 27%, but that's understandable considering the rollout of the new platforms)

I also like how, instead of yielding to established journalists wanting payhikes “that equal their fame”, vis-à-vis the recent poaching by Royal Media, BBC, Media Max et. al, they chose to let them go and develop younger talent with fresh ideas. Hence there are cost reductions (like in TV down by 21%)
- Overall cost of sales down 11%

ALAFU my problem with government- it owes NMG 726 million. Kazi ni kuwazungusha. Treasury to blame for Sh2.5bn media debt, says Joe Mucheru

My concerns on decreased turnover are assuaged by the fact that it’s a tough business environment, and management is not making excuses. They are taking steps to turn things around. That having been said, the moment they slack off, I’m jumping ship. But for now, I’ll sit tight.

The KSh. 1.50 interim dividend will calm jittery nerves. (Though it’s down from 2.50 - but no worries, let’s not eat everything today and go hungry tomorrow). Even if end year total dividend is slashed to Sh. 8, NMG will have a dividend yield of 9%, higher than nearly all firms on the NSE.

In summary, NMG management looks to be steering this ship well through turbulent waters. Tutabaki ndani tungoje FY results.



I concur.
Even a total dividend if 6 Bob (1.5+4.5) is good enough at this moment.
NMG is really an income stock for long termers. Just like Stan chart.
They were extremely generous last year as the total dividend of 10 Bob (2.5+7.5) was above around 8.6 Bob EPS. It means they dipped into their reserve to finance part of the FY 2017 dividend.


slashing interim dividend from 2.50 to 1.50 is very wrong.That affects the annual dividend yield for income investors.And the market will judge it harshly with a tumbling price.
Let them pay what they can afford. Cash is king. You don't want it to borrow to pay dividends nor starve itself of cash to make investments.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
young
#10 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 10:57:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
POINT OF CORRECTION

The EPS (Earning Per Share) history of NMG for the past 3 years are :-

2015........11.8
2016........8.9
2017........6.9

But the board has been TOO GENEROUS to consistently pay 10 Bob dividend by dipping into their reserves for the past 2 years to PLEASE shareholders.

Looking forward pro-rating from their HY18 earnings I estimate full year EPS of 4.8 (2018) Vs 6.9(2017)

Factoring in 1.5 Bob interim dividend ,I expect a REASONABLE final dividend of 2.5 Bob making a total of 4 Bob from previous years 10 Bob.

This is the best way to face reality and channell funds for future growth and bumper dividends .

Bamburi did exactly that thereby drastically reducing their dividend payout from 12 Bob in FY 2016 (interim 6 + final 6 Bob)
TO
4 Bob in FY 2017 dividend (2.5 interim +1.5 final)


I was actually SCARED about the generosity of NMG as I knew it is not sustainable.

My 2 cents.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Mike Ock
#11 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 11:31:24 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/22/2015
Posts: 682
The rain has only started to beat. When my parents stopped buying gazeti in favor of internet stories I knew the clock had started towards D Day. Lucky for them their online competitors like OLX are also struggling. They need to copy Royal Media and launch very many different products in the "hot" areas online. They also need to be more open to acquisitions now. The way the online market is shaping up in Kenya, there will be very few mega opportunities to make billions with one idea. It will be about having many different products making between 10-100 million each
Ericsson
#12 Posted : Saturday, August 18, 2018 4:13:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,636
Location: NAIROBI
Mike Ock wrote:
The rain has only started to beat. When my parents stopped buying gazeti in favor of internet stories I knew the clock had started towards D Day. Lucky for them their online competitors like OLX are also struggling. They need to copy Royal Media and launch very many different products in the "hot" areas online. They also need to be more open to acquisitions now. The way the online market is shaping up in Kenya, there will be very few mega opportunities to make billions with one idea. It will be about having many different products making between 10-100 million each


Which online media platform is doing well?
The Kenyan economy is struggling
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
the deal
#13 Posted : Saturday, August 18, 2018 9:24:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
young wrote:
POINT OF CORRECTION

The EPS (Earning Per Share) history of NMG for the past 3 years are :-

2015........11.8
2016........8.9
2017........6.9

But the board has been TOO GENEROUS to consistently pay 10 Bob dividend by dipping into their reserves for the past 2 years to PLEASE shareholders.

Looking forward pro-rating from their HY18 earnings I estimate full year EPS of 4.8 (2018) Vs 6.9(2017)

Factoring in 1.5 Bob interim dividend ,I expect a REASONABLE final dividend of 2.5 Bob making a total of 4 Bob from previous years 10 Bob.

This is the best way to face reality and channell funds for future growth and bumper dividends .

Bamburi did exactly that thereby drastically reducing their dividend payout from 12 Bob in FY 2016 (interim 6 + final 6 Bob)
TO
4 Bob in FY 2017 dividend (2.5 interim +1.5 final)


I was actually SCARED about the generosity of NMG as I knew it is not sustainable.

My 2 cents.


Welcome back... please SELL this relic...it's time for NMG to pay for it's sins...you can't go to bed with the government and come out of it unscathed! I hear state house has influence on editorial content!
Ebenyo
#14 Posted : Monday, August 20, 2018 3:05:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
NMG was badly hit by january 2018 TV shutdown where they lost a big chunk in advertisement income from ntv.This has been reflected in the HY 1 results.
HY 2 will be good because of the joint broadcasting of world cup matches with kwese.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#15 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2018 8:46:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,636
Location: NAIROBI
Over the last 4 years, Nation Media Group (NMG) Share Price has fallen by 73% from a high of Sh 314 to a low of Sh 85, today's closing price. This is equivalent to Ksh 43.2 Billion being wiped off its market value.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
rwitre
#16 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2018 1:24:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 507
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Over the last 4 years, Nation Media Group (NMG) Share Price has fallen by 73% from a high of Sh 314 to a low of Sh 85, today's closing price. This is equivalent to Ksh 43.2 Billion being wiped off its market value.


Jittery hands spotted selling at Sh 80.
Cheque books opening ahead of book closure for interim dividend.
obiero
#17 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2018 1:32:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
rwitre wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Over the last 4 years, Nation Media Group (NMG) Share Price has fallen by 73% from a high of Sh 314 to a low of Sh 85, today's closing price. This is equivalent to Ksh 43.2 Billion being wiped off its market value.


Jittery hands spotted selling at Sh 80.
Cheque books opening ahead of book closure for interim dividend.

I researched the company on my graduation project and the observatory finding was exactly as has transpired.. "The Impact Of Internet Usage on Newspaper Distribution in Kenya"

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
rwitre
#18 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2018 2:06:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 507
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Over the last 4 years, Nation Media Group (NMG) Share Price has fallen by 73% from a high of Sh 314 to a low of Sh 85, today's closing price. This is equivalent to Ksh 43.2 Billion being wiped off its market value.


Jittery hands spotted selling at Sh 80.
Cheque books opening ahead of book closure for interim dividend.

I researched the company on my graduation project and the observatory finding was exactly as has transpired.. "The Impact Of Internet Usage on Newspaper Distribution in Kenya"


Kweli...it's "Adapt to survive".

Though Kenya media industry and digital disruption has unique challenges.
Like with the Video-On-Demand, the kickoff looked good and growth momentum was exciting.

Then a few month later, services like RMS's Viusasa are struggling to break even.

Focus is on the management, the products they release to the Kenyan market, and how successful they will be in raising revenue. Not just copy-pasting solutions from other markets and hoping the success will be replicated here.
Ebenyo
#19 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2018 2:07:42 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
obiero wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Over the last 4 years, Nation Media Group (NMG) Share Price has fallen by 73% from a high of Sh 314 to a low of Sh 85, today's closing price. This is equivalent to Ksh 43.2 Billion being wiped off its market value.


Jittery hands spotted selling at Sh 80.
Cheque books opening ahead of book closure for interim dividend.

I researched the company on my graduation project and the observatory finding was exactly as has transpired.. "The Impact Of Internet Usage on Newspaper Distribution in Kenya"



NMG can still make money from internet through advertisements if they strategise properly.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
obiero
#20 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2018 2:41:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
obiero wrote:
rwitre wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Over the last 4 years, Nation Media Group (NMG) Share Price has fallen by 73% from a high of Sh 314 to a low of Sh 85, today's closing price. This is equivalent to Ksh 43.2 Billion being wiped off its market value.


Jittery hands spotted selling at Sh 80.
Cheque books opening ahead of book closure for interim dividend.

I researched the company on my graduation project and the observatory finding was exactly as has transpired.. "The Impact Of Internet Usage on Newspaper Distribution in Kenya"



NMG can still make money from internet through advertisements if they strategise properly.

True. But pulling people away from Facebook, IG and Twitter will not be easy.. That's where the ad expense of most large Kenyan corporates has gone to..

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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