wazua Fri, Mar 20, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

4 Pages<1234>
MTN Ghana IPO
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
Liv
#21 Posted : Thursday, August 16, 2018 10:03:33 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
lochaz-index wrote:
young wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
maka wrote:
Been following up on purchasing some bonds in that country rates are super attractive...

Currency risk could outstrip the returns depending on the time horizon though I think KES is going to have a tougher time going forward vs the dollar than the cedi.


I believe this is just your mere thought as there is no basis.
This can only happen if ksh depreciates to 200ksh/$ to match up with the seriously battered
Cedi.
This cannot happen
in the next few years.......

Let's make a distinction...my recommendation is for an investor looking in. In that case past performance of either the cedi or KES counts for nothing as it doesn't indicate future performance.

For investors already holding assets in Ghana during the currency slide, the damage is already done and of course they faired far worse than KE ones.

My contention is that going forward on the short term, I don't expect KES to be a stellar performer like it has been in the past even against the cedi. So it is a question/comparison/projection of future performance without accounting for what has already transpired.




Sir,
You've been predicting doom for the Kenya shilling and economy at large for more than 3 years now. I've been following your contributions in various threads here. It seems you always expect the worst to happen to Kenya every year... what makes you think this will happen in the next 1-3 years now?
Back to top
  |
lochaz-index
#22 Posted : Thursday, August 16, 2018 10:40:32 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Liv wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
young wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
maka wrote:
Been following up on purchasing some bonds in that country rates are super attractive...

Currency risk could outstrip the returns depending on the time horizon though I think KES is going to have a tougher time going forward vs the dollar than the cedi.


I believe this is just your mere thought as there is no basis.
This can only happen if ksh depreciates to 200ksh/$ to match up with the seriously battered
Cedi.
This cannot happen
in the next few years.......

Let's make a distinction...my recommendation is for an investor looking in. In that case past performance of either the cedi or KES counts for nothing as it doesn't indicate future performance.

For investors already holding assets in Ghana during the currency slide, the damage is already done and of course they faired far worse than KE ones.

My contention is that going forward on the short term, I don't expect KES to be a stellar performer like it has been in the past even against the cedi. So it is a question/comparison/projection of future performance without accounting for what has already transpired.




Sir,
You've been predicting doom for the Kenya shilling and economy at large for more than 3 years now. I've been following your contributions in various threads here. It seems you always expect the worst to happen to Kenya every year... what makes you think this will happen in the next 1-3 years now?

I wouldn't call it predicting doom but rather the consequences of past actions and KE is not the only culprit. Telling the when is the tricky part. Do you hold that KE economy is on the mend/doing well?

If I'm not mistaken, NSE20 has been in a bear market since 2015 with the exception of last year's relief rally. Private sector activity has been slowing down on many fronts, KES lost ground from circa 85 to 100+(though not as bad as some peers like rand, naira or cedi), the twin deficits have been widening despite treasury's year in year out assurances of consolidation or what I'm I missing? KE has been here before and the characteristics fit the bill.

If there is another way of navigating the murk and come out unscathed I'm all ears.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Back to top
  |
Kusadikika
#23 Posted : Thursday, August 16, 2018 11:17:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,721
young wrote:
The First Reason is the consistent depreciation of the Ghana currency the Cedi. When investing overseas your capital preservation relative to your home currency is very important .

Let me take your through memory lane for the past 10+ years to buttress my point, specifically year 2007 to 2018.

Year 2007
1 cedi was 1 USD
67 KSH was 1 USD
120 naira was 1 USD
Naira is my local Nigerian currency

2007 In KENYA shilling Terms
67 ksh was 1 cedi
120 naira was 1 cedi

FAST FORWARD 2018
4.87 Cedi is 1 USD
100 KSH is 1 USD
360 naira is 1 USD

2018 IN KENYA SHILLING TERMS
21 KSH is 1 Cedi
74 Naira is 1 Cedi

Our naira relative to ksh is not doing well also.

In 2007 it was 1.8 naira to 1 ksh
In 2018 it is 3.60 naira to 1 ksh.

This is however a big very advantage to me as an investor in Nairobi bourse.

I think the difference is clear ?



Not to hijack the thread but I find this very interesting. Mr. Young, what in your opinion would you attribute the stability of the Ksh. to?

What happened to Ghana and Nigeria to cause such rapid devaluation of their currency in the last 10 years?
Is the Ksh. facing the same risk?

What impact will our SGR debt obligations coming due have on the value of the Ksh in the next 10 years?
Back to top
  |
young
#24 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 1:24:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,074
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Kusadikika wrote:
young wrote:
The First Reason is the consistent depreciation of the Ghana currency the Cedi. When investing overseas your capital preservation relative to your home currency is very important .

Let me take your through memory lane for the past 10+ years to buttress my point, specifically year 2007 to 2018.

Year 2007
1 cedi was 1 USD
67 KSH was 1 USD
120 naira was 1 USD
Naira is my local Nigerian currency

2007 In KENYA shilling Terms
67 ksh was 1 cedi
120 naira was 1 cedi

FAST FORWARD 2018
4.87 Cedi is 1 USD
100 KSH is 1 USD
360 naira is 1 USD

2018 IN KENYA SHILLING TERMS
21 KSH is 1 Cedi
74 Naira is 1 Cedi

Our naira relative to ksh is not doing well also.

In 2007 it was 1.8 naira to 1 ksh
In 2018 it is 3.60 naira to 1 ksh.

This is however a big very advantage to me as an investor in Nairobi bourse.

I think the difference is clear ?



Not to hijack the thread but I find this very interesting. Mr. Young, what in your opinion would you attribute the stability of the Ksh. to?

What happened to Ghana and Nigeria to cause such rapid devaluation of their currency in the last 10 years?
Is the Ksh. facing the same risk?

What impact will our SGR debt obligations coming due have on the value of the Ksh in the next 10 years?


@kusadikka
The question should rather be the other way round, that is Kenyans should explain to us west Africans (Ghana, Nigeria) what they are doing right for ksh to depreciate only by 34% against USD in the past 10 years WHERAS
Nigerian naira deprecated by 136%
AND
Ghana Cedi 487%.......

Nonetheless I was only requested to advise whether it is worthwhile for Kenyans to participate in Ghana bourse MTN IPO.
You should be aware that I have moved on from writing on stocks to health.
The truth of the matter ksh has been consistent in value several decades before
2007 relative to USD , at least compared to other currencies.
In year 2000 ksh was about 72/$. It floundered to 100/$ in 2011 and it has been holding ground since then though it touched a high of 107 in 2015. I will provide you a link shortly so that even if you want to see the rate from 1980 or 1990 to date you can see.

Past history is not an indication of the future, I will say yes and no. It is not true in all cases
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Back to top
  |
young
#25 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 1:29:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,074
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
LINK...HISTORICAL INFO KES VS USD

https://m.investing.com/...usd-kes-historical-data

Here you can extrapolate from......to any date you want under historical data.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Friday, August 17, 2018 1:31 AM | Reason: Not specified
young
#26 Posted : Sunday, August 26, 2018 11:19:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,074
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
The trend in which Ghana cedi continue to loose value over time continues.


https://thebftonline.com...tilities-in-q3-unabated/
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Back to top
  |
Wororo
#27 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2018 4:16:03 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/30/2011
Posts: 207
MTN plunges on Johannesburg Stock Exchange after $8.1 billion fine from Nigeria's Central Bank... Hawa walirogwa aki na aliyewaroga alikufa... Waaaah!
Back to top
  |
young
#28 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2018 5:29:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,074
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Wororo wrote:
MTN plunges on Johannesburg Stock Exchange after $8.1 billion fine from Nigeria's Central Bank... Hawa walirogwa aki na aliyewaroga alikufa... Waaaah!


FROM OUR LOCAL NEWSPAPER

https://punchng.com/cbn-...rs-mtn-to-refund-8-1bn/
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Back to top
  |
young
#29 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2018 5:44:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,074
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Wororo wrote:
MTN plunges on Johannesburg Stock Exchange after $8.1 billion fine from Nigeria's Central Bank... Hawa walirogwa aki na aliyewaroga alikufa... Waaaah!


FROM GHANAIAN NEWSPAPER

https://www.graphic.com....bn-mtn-sent-abroad.html
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Back to top
  |
young
#30 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2018 5:50:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,074
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
DELETED DUE TO DUPLICATION
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Thursday, August 30, 2018 6:15 PM | Reason: Not specified
4 Pages<1234>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.