Wazua
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Madness at the NSE
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Sparkly - Timing is not good!
KK (17+) vs KenGen (6.60) - A lesson learnt! 1. @VVS our NSE is very unpredictable. In fact I don't have much faith in Buy and Hold strategy anymore. It seems safer to trade seasonal and rumour based trends, take profits and move on. 2. Fundamentally good stocks stay depressed for too long. More value is unlocked by takeovers and attempted takeovers rather than open market action e.g. Rea Vipingo, Access, Unilever, Carbacid, Stanbic, KK, Express, Unga, City Trust etc. Long frustrating wait for minority shareholders. 3. Few true Blue Chips. There is always something around the corner to strangle the prospects of good companies e.g. price/ tariff regulation for banks, Oil marketers, telecomms... impudent loans by public utilities... political interference/ theft on parastatals like KQ, Uchumi, Mumias... Arbitrary and excessive taxation on alcohol, cigarettes and airtime... toxic politics for tourism and services... tenderprenuerism in Oil Marketing and Digital broadcasting. 4. Weak regulatory structure allowing too much cooking of books. You can't tell if you have a gem or a monkey e.g. ADSS, Home Afrika, Eveready, Sameer allowed to con Wanjiku with pie in the sky projections. 5. Out of the 80 or so companies that listed on the NSE, less than 10 have been worthy of being held for more than 10 years. Safaricom, BAT, Jubilee, Equity, Kakuzi somehow beat the odds to grow in the longterm. 1. Some think B&H is a permanent marriage. I review my positions based on new info. I will bail out of firms whose shares I feel are over-priced OR there is a fundamental shift in the business OR there is another enticing opportunity. Warren Buffett talks about moats and opportunity costs. 2. I do not trade and I am comfy with that. As long as the market undervalues the firms/shares, I will remain a buyer. It allows me to build up a position slowly. That has worked well for me but it requires patience. Socks or Stocks, buy them when they are on sale - WB 3. #ThisIsKenya ... Minorities have few rights as we have seen BUT shareholders are too passive and do not exercise what they have. I have been to AGMs and a lot of the drama is about FOOD/GIFTS. That's why what's happening at Express and Unga is welcome. 4. I avoid the "monkeys" when I figure out they are trash. I got caught in ADSS but then bailed out at a loss. I do not trust Merali even though Sameer's "fundamentals" are enticing. Nowadays, I have no interest in these firms. I bought ARM based on the huge discount to NAV, turnaround in TZ and CDC/IFC imminent re-financing. 5. True. I have some Equity and quite happy over the years. I managed to buy some at 25-ish and got to 50-ish in 2 years - sold some for other reasons. Selling Jubilee was a mistake. I was impatient. I like Aga Khan firms in that they do face headwinds but seem to be run professionally. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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Temporary Bull run this month aa companies announce half year results with some giving interim dividends Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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CMA considers special board for limping firmsHujuma... Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/8/2018 Posts: 73
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Rubbish, instead of instilling good corporate governance and protecting the public from corporate vultures they are creating an ICU wing.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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So when they delist, then they leave the minority shareholders at the mercy of the crooks. Crazy!!! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:So when they delist, then they leave the minority shareholders at the mercy of the crooks. Crazy!!! This country is simply messed up HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:So when they delist, then they leave the minority shareholders at the mercy of the crooks. Crazy!!! This country is simply messed up Read perks, allowances, opaque deals,..... bure kabisa Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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Angelica _ann wrote:So when they delist, then they leave the minority shareholders at the mercy of the crooks. Crazy!!! Paul Muthaura is a toothless dog. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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Quote:In making investments, I have always believed that you must act with discipline whenever you see something you truly like. To explain this philosophy, Buffett/Munger likes to use a baseball analogy that I find particularly illuminating, though I myself am not at all a baseball expert. Ted Williams is the only baseball player who had a .400 single-season hitting record in the last seven decades. In the Science of Hitting, he explained his technique. He divided the strike zone into seventy-seven cells, each representing the size of a baseball. He would insist on swinging only at balls in his ‘best’ cells, even at the risk of striking out, because reaching for the ‘worst’ spots would seriously reduce his chances of success. As a securities investor, you can watch all sorts of business propositions in the form of security prices thrown at you all the time. For the most part, you don’t have to do a thing other than be amused. Once in a while, you will find a ‘fat pitch’ that is slow, straight, and right in the middle of your sweet spot. Then you swing hard. This way, no matter what natural ability you start with, you will substantially increase your hitting average. One common problem for investors is that they tend to swing too often. This is true for both individuals and for professional investors operating under institutional imperatives, one version of which drove me out of the conventional long/short hedge fund operation. However, the opposite problem is equally harmful to long-term results: You discover a ‘fat pitch’ but are unable to swing with the full weight of your capital. ~ Li Liu, Himalayan Capital
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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wukan wrote:Quote:In making investments, I have always believed that you must act with discipline whenever you see something you truly like. To explain this philosophy, Buffett/Munger likes to use a baseball analogy that I find particularly illuminating, though I myself am not at all a baseball expert. Ted Williams is the only baseball player who had a .400 single-season hitting record in the last seven decades. In the Science of Hitting, he explained his technique. He divided the strike zone into seventy-seven cells, each representing the size of a baseball. He would insist on swinging only at balls in his ‘best’ cells, even at the risk of striking out, because reaching for the ‘worst’ spots would seriously reduce his chances of success. As a securities investor, you can watch all sorts of business propositions in the form of security prices thrown at you all the time. For the most part, you don’t have to do a thing other than be amused. Once in a while, you will find a ‘fat pitch’ that is slow, straight, and right in the middle of your sweet spot. Then you swing hard. This way, no matter what natural ability you start with, you will substantially increase your hitting average. One common problem for investors is that they tend to swing too often. This is true for both individuals and for professional investors operating under institutional imperatives, one version of which drove me out of the conventional long/short hedge fund operation. However, the opposite problem is equally harmful to long-term results: You discover a ‘fat pitch’ but are unable to swing with the full weight of your capital. ~ Li Liu, Himalayan Capital WB has influenced me in how I invest. I used to invest in any and all firms but I have slowly concentrated my positions in 5 "core" firms + 5 "Tier 2" firms. Even these may be too many! I may have some (relatively small) historical positions e.g. Jubilee or a recent investment like ARM that I watch to see if it should be upgraded. I was in crap like OCH, Deacons and KQ but I am out. This was partly thanks to the silly idea of investing in every IPO and listing. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:wukan wrote:Quote:In making investments, I have always believed that you must act with discipline whenever you see something you truly like. To explain this philosophy, Buffett/Munger likes to use a baseball analogy that I find particularly illuminating, though I myself am not at all a baseball expert. Ted Williams is the only baseball player who had a .400 single-season hitting record in the last seven decades. In the Science of Hitting, he explained his technique. He divided the strike zone into seventy-seven cells, each representing the size of a baseball. He would insist on swinging only at balls in his ‘best’ cells, even at the risk of striking out, because reaching for the ‘worst’ spots would seriously reduce his chances of success. As a securities investor, you can watch all sorts of business propositions in the form of security prices thrown at you all the time. For the most part, you don’t have to do a thing other than be amused. Once in a while, you will find a ‘fat pitch’ that is slow, straight, and right in the middle of your sweet spot. Then you swing hard. This way, no matter what natural ability you start with, you will substantially increase your hitting average. One common problem for investors is that they tend to swing too often. This is true for both individuals and for professional investors operating under institutional imperatives, one version of which drove me out of the conventional long/short hedge fund operation. However, the opposite problem is equally harmful to long-term results: You discover a ‘fat pitch’ but are unable to swing with the full weight of your capital. ~ Li Liu, Himalayan Capital WB has influenced me in how I invest. I used to invest in any and all firms but I have slowly concentrated my positions in 5 "core" firms + 5 "Tier 2" firms. Even these may be too many! I may have some (relatively small) historical positions e.g. Jubilee or a recent investment like ARM that I watch to see if it should be upgraded. I was in crap like OCH, Deacons and KQ but I am out. This was partly thanks to the silly idea of investing in every IPO and listing. If ARM isn't a crap stock then I don't really know what you are saying HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:So when they delist, then they leave the minority shareholders at the mercy of the crooks. Crazy!!! Paul Muthaura is a toothless dog. It's a real pity HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:wukan wrote:Quote:In making investments, I have always believed that you must act with discipline whenever you see something you truly like. To explain this philosophy, Buffett/Munger likes to use a baseball analogy that I find particularly illuminating, though I myself am not at all a baseball expert. Ted Williams is the only baseball player who had a .400 single-season hitting record in the last seven decades. In the Science of Hitting, he explained his technique. He divided the strike zone into seventy-seven cells, each representing the size of a baseball. He would insist on swinging only at balls in his ‘best’ cells, even at the risk of striking out, because reaching for the ‘worst’ spots would seriously reduce his chances of success. As a securities investor, you can watch all sorts of business propositions in the form of security prices thrown at you all the time. For the most part, you don’t have to do a thing other than be amused. Once in a while, you will find a ‘fat pitch’ that is slow, straight, and right in the middle of your sweet spot. Then you swing hard. This way, no matter what natural ability you start with, you will substantially increase your hitting average. One common problem for investors is that they tend to swing too often. This is true for both individuals and for professional investors operating under institutional imperatives, one version of which drove me out of the conventional long/short hedge fund operation. However, the opposite problem is equally harmful to long-term results: You discover a ‘fat pitch’ but are unable to swing with the full weight of your capital. ~ Li Liu, Himalayan Capital WB has influenced me in how I invest. I used to invest in any and all firms but I have slowly concentrated my positions in 5 "core" firms + 5 "Tier 2" firms. Even these may be too many! I may have some (relatively small) historical positions e.g. Jubilee or a recent investment like ARM that I watch to see if it should be upgraded. I was in crap like OCH, Deacons and KQ but I am out. This was partly thanks to the silly idea of investing in every IPO and listing. If ARM isn't a crap stock then I don't really know what you are saying That's why it is neither a Core not Tier 2 holding. IMHO, I think ARM at 4.50 (cost 3.70) is better than KQ (among many others) at 10. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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https://www.businessdail...920-14wi2x5z/index.html
Rebound on the way Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,641 Location: NAIROBI
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https://www.standardmedi...emes-shun-big-four-plan
According to a new survey released yesterday by fund administrator Zamara, 93 per cent of the investments by the different schemes last year went into equities and fixed income securities. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001291796/pension-schemes-shun-big-four-plan According to a new survey released yesterday by fund administrator Zamara, 93 per cent of the investments by the different schemes last year went into equities and fixed income securities. Bumper harvest on equities went with kibaki "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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Equity 1H 2018 16 Aug 2018 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/14/2015 Posts: 16 Location: Ngamia 1
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"Since November last year, foreign investors have been selling more than buying, leading to accumulated sell-off of $178.07 million (Sh17.94 billion) in the seven months to July. The worst months were in February and May with a net sales of Sh5.14 billion and Sh4 billion respectively." https://www.businessdail...12540-14mgh7r/index.html
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:Ericsson wrote:https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001291796/pension-schemes-shun-big-four-plan According to a new survey released yesterday by fund administrator Zamara, 93 per cent of the investments by the different schemes last year went into equities and fixed income securities. Bumper harvest on equities went with kibaki Those were the days guys were making serious chumz... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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sonko mjinga manenos... Quote:It was all well for ARM until last month when auditors said the firm has been misrepresenting its financial statements to conceal stale subsidiary debts amounting to Sh 21 billion.
That is when we came to grips with the fact that we were staring at a major corporate governance crisis in what was — at one point— the biggest cement maker in the region.
Corporate Kenya has got to understand that there is a higher calling than trying to fudge numbers.
It is textbook case of what happens when you have a board that kowtows to a powerful founder-owner CEO.
As an investor, can we really trust capital markets in this country anymore?
But what I find even more puzzling is the way global PE funds, namely, the CDC and the International Finance Corporation were also duped.
How could all those global PE funds who kept pouring and committing money into ARM allow themselves to be duped by the management of the company? https://www.businessdail...15744-11ieuvr/index.html
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