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Madness at the NSE
VituVingiSana
#1241 Posted : Friday, July 06, 2018 2:24:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,038
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Obiero - Leo, nimenunua "penny stock" ARM so let's support each other!
Watu wa ARM to fly KQ and watu waibe pale KQ lakini watumie simiti ya ARM
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Shameless old man. You are advocating for theft!? By the way, KQ made it out of the penny stock league
Lakini, that's the one constant about KQ.

On a serious note, now that I am an investor in ARM, I hope KQ/KAA gives priority to ARM Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly for its cement requirements!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#1242 Posted : Friday, July 06, 2018 3:15:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,038
Location: Nairobi
It's raining green for some of these folks!
https://www.businessdail...49206-iw9x69/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#1243 Posted : Friday, July 06, 2018 11:08:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,464
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
It's raining green for some of these folks!
https://www.businessdail...49206-iw9x69/index.html

Lots of green

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#1244 Posted : Saturday, July 07, 2018 4:20:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,038
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
It's raining green for some of these folks!
https://www.businessdail...49206-iw9x69/index.html

Lots of green
MJ is doing quite well. His FY 2018 packet could be 20mn!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Chaka
#1245 Posted : Saturday, July 07, 2018 5:01:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/16/2007
Posts: 2,114
VituVingiSana wrote:

Lots of green
MJ is doing quite well. His FY 2018 packet could be 20mn!
[/quote]
Does the mzee need all this $$$ at his age?
VituVingiSana
#1246 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2018 2:46:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,038
Location: Nairobi
The bear is definitely in town!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Fyatu
#1247 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2018 4:37:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
VituVingiSana wrote:
The bear is definitely in town!



I believe it has been in town since August 2015.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
littledove
#1248 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2018 6:44:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 895
Location: sky
Fyatu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The bear is definitely in town!



I believe it has been in town since August 2015.

This bear has refused to go, three years down the line, the planting season is becoming too long until we have no seeds left to plant just watch and do minor shift on portfolio
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
mulla
#1249 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2018 7:51:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 301
littledove wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The bear is definitely in town!



I believe it has been in town since August 2015.

This bear has refused to go, three years down the line, the planting season is becoming too long until we have no seeds left to plant just watch and do minor shift on portfolio

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly @littledove....110%agreement.
lochaz-index
#1250 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2018 8:24:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
littledove wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The bear is definitely in town!



I believe it has been in town since August 2015.

This bear has refused to go, three years down the line, the planting season is becoming too long until we have no seeds left to plant just watch and do minor shift on portfolio

The bear quite simply never left it just took a breather last year...it has been on the NSE since March of 2015.

Guys waiting for a bull charge emanating from the political cease fire have been grossly disappointed. Fundies still say the bull is a long way off.

My thinking is the 3000 level will give way once USD starts squeezing the juice (capital flows) out of KE. Remittances have been the lifeline of the KE economy for some time now to the extent that KES has been the best performing subsaharan currency YTD. Remittances have managed to narrow the BOP deficit despite imports outstripping exports with a growing margin year in year out.

In other words, the good has nothing to do with internal fundies but outside factors. The moment that changes and aligns with domestic conditions it will be a sight to behold.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mwekez@ji
#1251 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2018 7:58:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
lochaz-index wrote:
littledove wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The bear is definitely in town!



I believe it has been in town since August 2015.

This bear has refused to go, three years down the line, the planting season is becoming too long until we have no seeds left to plant just watch and do minor shift on portfolio

The bear quite simply never left it just took a breather last year...it has been on the NSE since March of 2015.

Guys waiting for a bull charge emanating from the political cease fire have been grossly disappointed. Fundies still say the bull is a long way off.

My thinking is the 3000 level will give way once USD starts squeezing the juice (capital flows) out of KE. Remittances have been the lifeline of the KE economy for some time now to the extent that KES has been the best performing subsaharan currency YTD. Remittances have managed to narrow the BOP deficit despite imports outstripping exports with a growing margin year in year out.

In other words, the good has nothing to do with internal fundies but outside factors. The moment that changes and aligns with domestic conditions it will be a sight to behold.

This bear story mainly applies to us who have invested in NSE 20 shares coz NSE All Share Index is telling a different story



Ericsson
#1252 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2018 8:32:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,626
Location: NAIROBI
Safaricom resisting bear run
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#1253 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2018 12:53:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,626
Location: NAIROBI
https://www.businessdail...60516-t837pbz/index.html
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
wukan
#1254 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2018 1:07:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,567
mwekez@ji wrote:





Your chart is showing a complete impulse wave on the NSE All share index. The start of the corrective wave is also showing on the chart.
kayhara
#1255 Posted : Friday, July 20, 2018 11:58:41 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/5/2011
Posts: 1,059
I wonder what will excite the market it really dull, all black with some reds here and there, green has been very rare on my dashboard, lots of zero trades in many counters, monkeys are in the most traded.
To Each His Own
VituVingiSana
#1256 Posted : Friday, July 20, 2018 1:54:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,038
Location: Nairobi
On my core holdings:

KenRe - Mwarania is back!
Unga - Offer fails (70% vs a minimum of 75%)
I&M - Lack-luster performance of the share price like the market. Awaiting 1H 2018 results
KK - 1H 2018 PAT expected to be very good but the proposed VAT on fuel is worrisome. 2H will likely be tougher.


Others:
ARM - Bought at 3.70 and facing resistance about 4.70 but we wait for CDC's announcement and 1H results
Centum - Lots of headwinds. Some plans for Vipingo revealed. Price is down to 34.
TPSEA - Down to 28. Expansion works on Nairobi Serena are ongoing but it is a long-term and cash intensive project.
C&G - The market is tough. The share price has collapsed. They can sell some properties to get some cash and realize value. Cummins is now a JV.
FTGH - Shida in a cash-poor environment when customers are broke.
Equity - Renamed the DRC business. Mary Wamae now the CEO of the foreign subsidiaries. Polycarp Igathe is the new COO. Profits should be great for 1H.
Tea - Should do well. Great crop but lower prices. We wait for results.

#BoraUhai!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#1257 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2018 5:00:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,626
Location: NAIROBI
Counters with high share price per share like BAT,Bamburi traded huge volumes today.
They were the biggest movers in terms of total volume traded
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
sparkly
#1258 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2018 5:10:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Ericsson wrote:
Counters with high share price per share like BAT,Bamburi traded huge volumes today.
They were the biggest movers in terms of total volume traded


Smart money testing stocks one toe at a time.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#1259 Posted : Wednesday, July 25, 2018 9:50:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,038
Location: Nairobi
@Sparkly - Timing is not good!

KK (17+) vs KenGen (6.60) - A lesson learnt!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#1260 Posted : Wednesday, July 25, 2018 12:38:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Sparkly - Timing is not good!

KK (17+) vs KenGen (6.60) - A lesson learnt!


1. @VVS our NSE is very unpredictable. In fact I don't have much faith in Buy and Hold strategy anymore. It seems safer to trade seasonal and rumour based trends, take profits and move on.

2. Fundamentally good stocks stay depressed for too long. More value is unlocked by takeovers and attempted takeovers rather than open market action e.g. Rea Vipingo, Access, Unilever, Carbacid, Stanbic, KK, Express, Unga, City Trust etc. Long frustrating wait for minority shareholders.

3. Few true Blue Chips. There is always something around the corner to strangle the prospects of good companies e.g. price/ tariff regulation for banks, Oil marketers, telecomms... impudent loans by public utilities... political interference/ theft on parastatals like KQ, Uchumi, Mumias... Arbitrary and excessive taxation on alcohol, cigarettes and airtime... toxic politics for tourism and services... tenderprenuerism in Oil Marketing and Digital broadcasting.

4. Weak regulatory structure allowing too much cooking of books. You can't tell if you have a gem or a monkey e.g. ADSS, Home Afrika, Eveready, Sameer allowed to con Wanjiku with pie in the sky projections.

5. Out of the 80 or so companies that listed on the NSE, less than 10 have been worthy of being held for more than 10 years. Safaricom, BAT, Jubilee, Equity, Kakuzi somehow beat the odds to grow in the longterm.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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