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Investors Lounge
Angelica _ann
#5281 Posted : Saturday, June 16, 2018 6:25:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
Cornelius Vanderbiltt wrote:
a curated list of tweets of whats affecting the financial markets

www.bit.ly/2JSKFjV


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
murchr
#5282 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2018 5:33:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mnandii
#5283 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2018 9:17:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
DJIA



I have been tracking the Dow for sometime now. Brown wave [ii] is now complete at about 25100. Expect that major fall in the DOW going forward. Target below 20,000 soon. This is an Elliott wave third of a third wave, the strongest and fastest moves happen here.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#5284 Posted : Thursday, July 26, 2018 10:10:33 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Some EM pain for Turkey via capital flight and CB's indecision.
Quote:
The central bank announced it would keep its headline interest rate steady at 17.75 per cent even as annual consumer price inflation reached 15.4 per cent in June — more than triple the official target

Turkish lira has lost almost 30% YTD
Quote:
The embattled lira plummeted following the announcement, falling as much as 4.2 per cent before recovering slightly to 4.87 to the dollar at the end of the European trading day.

Interest rates are soaring
Quote:
The yield on the nation’s 10-year bond surged 184 basis points to 18.67 percent.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5285 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2018 8:19:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
Some EM pain for Turkey via capital flight and CB's indecision.
Quote:
The central bank announced it would keep its headline interest rate steady at 17.75 per cent even as annual consumer price inflation reached 15.4 per cent in June — more than triple the official target

Turkish lira has lost almost 30% YTD
Quote:
The embattled lira plummeted following the announcement, falling as much as 4.2 per cent before recovering slightly to 4.87 to the dollar at the end of the European trading day.

Interest rates are soaring
Quote:
The yield on the nation’s 10-year bond surged 184 basis points to 18.67 percent.

Well that escalated fast.
Quote:
Turkey is just the latest developing economy to plunge into chaos. The Turkish lira has shed more than 40% since January, while the country's stock market has been cut in half
European and Turkish banks are staring at humongous losses not to mention the government is in a real pickle as management of borrowing costs and deficits was heavily dependent on capital inflows.
Quote:
The turmoil follows a similar currency crash in Argentina that led to a rescue by the International Monetary Fund. In recent days, the Russian ruble, Indian rupee and South African rand have also tumbled dramatically.
The contagion cuts through the EM giants like a hot knife through butter with the notable exception of Chinese yuan. The South African rand in particular is yet to see the dark side of the moon - my money is on them to have the roughest ride for a two year window.

The Turkish meltdown is causing quakes for European peripheral economies with Italy demanding QE infinity to support their fledgling markets and suppress their borrowing costs.
Quote:
As confidence in Erdogan and the Turkish currency drops, European banks that lent money in Turkey are beginning to worry about whether they can recover their loans. And analysts say this currency problem, coupled with rising interest rates in the U.S., are scaring investors off other emerging economies.

Beyond the financial realm, some interesting geopolitical developments, is NATO dead?
Quote:
Earlier this month the longtime NATO members engaged in a heated exchange of sanctions and threats of retaliation. Not long after that, President Trump said his administration would be doubling its tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum — raising the levies to 50 percent and 20 percent, respectively, and helping encourage the lira's free fall Friday.

Beyond geographic considerations, Turkey has been a key partner in the fight against ISIS, a militant group that has staged attacks within its borders, and it is a rare Muslim nation that has diplomatic relations with Israel, another U.S. ally. Turkey has also been hosting more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees who might otherwise be traveling to Europe or the U.S.
Looks like a dog fight in the making and the IMF is going to have one bumper of a season.
https://www.npr.org/2018...-between-u-s-and-turkey
https://money.cnn.com/20...twCNNi&utm_term=link
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
maka
#5286 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2018 9:35:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
[quote=lochaz-index]Some EM pain for Turkey via capital flight and CB's indecision.
Quote:
The central bank announced it would keep its headline interest rate steady at 17.75 per cent even as annual consumer price inflation reached 15.4 per cent in June — more than triple the official target

Turkish lira has lost almost 30% YTD
Quote:
The embattled lira plummeted following the announcement, falling as much as 4.2 per cent before recovering slightly to 4.87 to the dollar at the end of the European trading day.

Interest rates are soaring
Quote:
The yield on the nation’s 10-year bond surged 184 basis points to 18.67 percent.

Well that escalated fast.
Quote:
Turkey is just the latest developing economy to plunge into chaos. The Turkish lira has shed more than 40% since January, while the country's stock market has been cut in half
European and Turkish banks are staring at humongous losses not to mention the government is in a real pickle as management of borrowing costs and deficits was heavily dependent on capital inflows.
Quote:
The turmoil follows a similar currency crash in Argentina that led to a rescue by the International Monetary Fund. In recent days, the Russian ruble, Indian rupee and South African rand have also tumbled dramatically.
The contagion cuts through the EM giants like a hot knife through butter with the notable exception of Chinese yuan. The South African rand in particular is yet to see the dark side of the moon - my money is on them to have the roughest ride for a two year window.

The Turkish meltdown is causing quakes for European peripheral economies with Italy demanding QE infinity to support their fledgling markets and suppress their borrowing costs.
Quote:
As confidence in Erdogan and the Turkish currency drops, European banks that lent money in Turkey are beginning to worry about whether they can recover their loans. And analysts say this currency problem, coupled with rising interest rates in the U.S., are scaring investors off other emerging economies.

Beyond the financial realm, some interesting geopolitical developments, is NATO dead?
Quote:
Earlier this month the longtime NATO members engaged in a heated exchange of sanctions and threats of retaliation. Not long after that, President Trump said his administration would be doubling its tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum — raising the levies to 50 percent and 20 percent, respectively, and helping encourage the lira's free fall Friday.

Beyond geographic considerations, Turkey has been a key partner in the fight against ISIS, a militant group that has staged attacks within its borders, and it is a rare Muslim nation that has diplomatic relations with Israel, another U.S. ally. Turkey has also been hosting more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees who might otherwise be traveling to Europe or the U.S.
Looks like a dog fight in the making and the IMF is going to have one bumper of a season.
https://www.npr.org/2018...-between-u-s-and-turkey
https://money.cnn.com/20...wCNNi&utm_term=link[/quote]

Interesting...

The Turkey 10Y Government Bond has a 20.460% yield.

10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is -471 bp.

Central Bank Rate is 17.75%.

The Turkey rating is BB-, according to Standard & Poor's agency.

Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 513.26.
possunt quia posse videntur
lochaz-index
#5287 Posted : Wednesday, August 15, 2018 10:43:01 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
maka wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
[quote=lochaz-index]Some EM pain for Turkey via capital flight and CB's indecision.
Quote:
The central bank announced it would keep its headline interest rate steady at 17.75 per cent even as annual consumer price inflation reached 15.4 per cent in June — more than triple the official target

Turkish lira has lost almost 30% YTD
Quote:
The embattled lira plummeted following the announcement, falling as much as 4.2 per cent before recovering slightly to 4.87 to the dollar at the end of the European trading day.

Interest rates are soaring
Quote:
The yield on the nation’s 10-year bond surged 184 basis points to 18.67 percent.

Well that escalated fast.
Quote:
Turkey is just the latest developing economy to plunge into chaos. The Turkish lira has shed more than 40% since January, while the country's stock market has been cut in half
European and Turkish banks are staring at humongous losses not to mention the government is in a real pickle as management of borrowing costs and deficits was heavily dependent on capital inflows.
Quote:
The turmoil follows a similar currency crash in Argentina that led to a rescue by the International Monetary Fund. In recent days, the Russian ruble, Indian rupee and South African rand have also tumbled dramatically.
The contagion cuts through the EM giants like a hot knife through butter with the notable exception of Chinese yuan. The South African rand in particular is yet to see the dark side of the moon - my money is on them to have the roughest ride for a two year window.

The Turkish meltdown is causing quakes for European peripheral economies with Italy demanding QE infinity to support their fledgling markets and suppress their borrowing costs.
Quote:
As confidence in Erdogan and the Turkish currency drops, European banks that lent money in Turkey are beginning to worry about whether they can recover their loans. And analysts say this currency problem, coupled with rising interest rates in the U.S., are scaring investors off other emerging economies.

Beyond the financial realm, some interesting geopolitical developments, is NATO dead?
Quote:
Earlier this month the longtime NATO members engaged in a heated exchange of sanctions and threats of retaliation. Not long after that, President Trump said his administration would be doubling its tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum — raising the levies to 50 percent and 20 percent, respectively, and helping encourage the lira's free fall Friday.

Beyond geographic considerations, Turkey has been a key partner in the fight against ISIS, a militant group that has staged attacks within its borders, and it is a rare Muslim nation that has diplomatic relations with Israel, another U.S. ally. Turkey has also been hosting more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees who might otherwise be traveling to Europe or the U.S.
Looks like a dog fight in the making and the IMF is going to have one bumper of a season.
https://www.npr.org/2018...-between-u-s-and-turkey
https://money.cnn.com/20...wCNNi&utm_term=link[/quote]

Interesting...

The Turkey 10Y Government Bond has a 20.460% yield.

10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is -471 bp.

Central Bank Rate is 17.75%.

The Turkey rating is BB-, according to Standard & Poor's agency.

Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 513.26.

The dreaded yield curve inversion with a dash of hyperinflation. EU appears to be engaged on too many fronts...if major banks lose their shirts in Turkey then the euro will be in serious trouble.

Interesting to note that the yield on the 10yr note was hovering at around 10% in August of 2017...one year later it is at 20%+. That said Erdoğan is not the type to go out with a whimper, he will go down swinging at enormous costs to the Turkish economy.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Wororo
#5288 Posted : Thursday, August 16, 2018 2:49:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/30/2011
Posts: 207
wukan
#5289 Posted : Thursday, August 16, 2018 3:04:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,568


Debt-fueled economic growth always resets. This like kshs moving to 150 to the dollar. It's possible so let's wait for our turnsmile smile
lochaz-index
#5290 Posted : Thursday, August 16, 2018 9:18:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
wukan wrote:


Debt-fueled economic growth always resets. This like kshs moving to 150 to the dollar. It's possible so let's wait for our turnsmile smile

Can't fault him. Some would argue that being early is the same as being wrong but his approach preserves capital(and grows wealth over the long haul) as opposed to being a perennial optimist(perpetual bull).

EM/FM will be a bloodbath, it is a question of when not if. As for KE, the debt wasn't prudently managed (embezzlement) or invested (what with the boondoggles acquired or built) therefore the ride down won't be courteous.

NSE20 currently sits on a knife edge of critical support, next move will be major and it will dovetail with movement in the KES. For all the free money that had been doing the rounds since 2008 NSE never had a proper bull...most of it found home in real estate. However, KE is heavily reliant on inflows which isn't comforting knowing how fast the tide can turn (ask Turkey). Add some self sabotage in the name of so-called robinhood tax and increased excise duty on fintech...it isn't a pretty picture.

Every economy will have its time at the cleaners but some will take a long while to undo the damage and get back on on track.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
wukan
#5291 Posted : Friday, August 17, 2018 9:52:16 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,568
The Venezuela stock market is on hyperinflation steroidsSad Sad

Quote:
the Venezuela Stock Market (IBVC) increased 58680 points or 36.52% to 219356 on Thursday August 16 from 160676 in the previous trading session.
lochaz-index
#5292 Posted : Tuesday, August 28, 2018 9:45:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
EM sell off continues...enter Zambia.
Quote:
Zambia’s Eurobonds have lost 10 percent this month, more than any of the 75 countries in the Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets USD Sovereign Bond Index. That’s extended their decline to 23 percent this year and sent spreads over U.S. Treasuries soaring to more than 1,000 basis points.
A snap shot of their metrics
Quote:
Zambia was one of Africa’s most prolific borrowers in the Eurobond market between 2012 and 2015, selling $3 billion of debt. It also took on loans from Chinese state firms, some of which it’s trying to renegotiate. The government’s debt load will rise to 66 percent of gross domestic product this year, more than triple the figure a decade ago, according to the IMF. The Washington-based lender says Zambia’s 2018 budget shortfall will be almost 8 percent of GDP, the highest among sub-Saharan African dollar-bond issuers

https://www.bloomberg.co...s-hit-1-000-basis-points
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5293 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2018 6:07:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
SA might be staring at the perfect storm as the EM rout picks its prey one by one.
Quote:
Let’s call this the house of ‘bad economics”. Typically, these are countries that spend too much, borrow too much and save too little. The hallmarks of such economies are twin deficits, a lack of policy credibility, fiscal laxity, and a huge reliance on external funding.
Unfortunately KE exhibits most of these characteristics if not all of them. Don't know how long the govt can stay the VAT on petroleum products and repealing of the interest caps given it also seeking an IMF bailout. For now it is a stay of execution perhaps to be enforced when desperation kicks in.

Quote:
It is highly plausible that when faced with questions on what spending to cut or what tax to raise, politicians will answer with a third question: how much more borrowing will the market let us get away with? On the former, the self-reinforcing feedback loop of higher yields, higher financing stress, higher credit risk and then back to higher yields is one with plenty historical precedent.
Most EMs/FMs are in this this boat currently. Question is for how long?

Parting shot
Quote:
Markets will also be highly reactive due to the potential for sudden deteriorations: as Hemingway said, when describing the process by which he personally went bankrupt: these things happen gradually, then suddenly
Like a waterfall, for SA the rout won't be kind with their expropriation without compensation crusade https://www.biznews.com/..._twitter_impression=true
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5294 Posted : Thursday, August 30, 2018 6:55:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Enter the ugly duckling... Argentina finds itself in a bizarro/twilight financial zone with a self reinforcing doom loop of defaults, more austerity, cratering currency and parabolic increases in interest rates.
Quote:
Argentina’s central bank pumped up interest rates by 15 percentage points to 60 per cent on Thursday after the peso resumed its plunge in early trading.

The existential threat of any govt...civil uprisings.
Quote:
“I expect the IMF to demand an even lower primary deficit in 2019, and social unrest will undoubtedly increase,” he said.
https://amp.ft.com/conte..._twitter_impression=true
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5295 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2018 3:14:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout.
Quote:
The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low.
Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade.

Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year.

ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...mp;utm_campaign=whatsapp
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
wukan
#5296 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2018 3:40:34 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,568
lochaz-index wrote:
This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout.
Quote:
The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low.
Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade.

Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year.

ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...p;utm_campaign=whatsapp


When I see wazuans cheering Mps for saving them from the VAT on fuel and rate caps, I just keep quiet. The hard landing will be nasty
Wororo
#5297 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2018 5:59:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/30/2011
Posts: 207
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout.
Quote:
The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low.
Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade.

Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year.

ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...p;utm_campaign=whatsapp


When I see wazuans cheering Mps for saving them from the VAT on fuel and rate caps, I just keep quiet. The hard landing will be nasty


Very true...

But on the bright side, the recession will make Kenyans realize that politically we are over-represented...

The legislative and the county membership ought to be trimmed down significantly...

That includes the number of counties too...

Alot will be required to be done to bounce back even better...
obiero
#5298 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2018 6:21:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Wororo wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout.
Quote:
The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low.
Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade.

Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year.

ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...p;utm_campaign=whatsapp


When I see wazuans cheering Mps for saving them from the VAT on fuel and rate caps, I just keep quiet. The hard landing will be nasty


Very true...

But on the bright side, the recession will make Kenyans realize that politically we are over-represented...

The legislative and the county membership ought to be trimmed down significantly...

That includes the number of counties too...

Alot will be required to be done to bounce back even better...

Devolution is God's gift to Kenya.. Which County would you want to scrap?

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Wororo
#5299 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2018 10:21:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/30/2011
Posts: 207
obiero wrote:
Wororo wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout.
Quote:
The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low.
Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade.

Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year.

ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...p;utm_campaign=whatsapp


When I see wazuans cheering Mps for saving them from the VAT on fuel and rate caps, I just keep quiet. The hard landing will be nasty


Very true...

But on the bright side, the recession will make Kenyans realize that politically we are over-represented...

The legislative and the county membership ought to be trimmed down significantly...

That includes the number of counties too...

Alot will be required to be done to bounce back even better...

Devolution is God's gift to Kenya.. Which County would you want to scrap?


@Obiero, didn't imply scrapping off devolution/counties per se but instead, merging counties to reduce the running/administtation costs ... Plus improving the realization, agility and sustainability of various projects which ideally with the current high fragmentation requires several adjacent and regional counties to simultaneously come together to execute the same...

Devolution has indeed been a blessing to all Kenyans be it directly or indirectly...
obiero
#5300 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2018 11:03:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Wororo wrote:
obiero wrote:
Wororo wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout.
Quote:
The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low.
Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade.

Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year.

ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...p;utm_campaign=whatsapp


When I see wazuans cheering Mps for saving them from the VAT on fuel and rate caps, I just keep quiet. The hard landing will be nasty


Very true...

But on the bright side, the recession will make Kenyans realize that politically we are over-represented...

The legislative and the county membership ought to be trimmed down significantly...

That includes the number of counties too...

Alot will be required to be done to bounce back even better...

Devolution is God's gift to Kenya.. Which County would you want to scrap?


@Obiero, didn't imply scrapping off devolution/counties per se but instead, merging counties to reduce the running/administtation costs ... Plus improving the realization, agility and sustainability of various projects which ideally with the current high fragmentation requires several adjacent and regional counties to simultaneously come together to execute the same...

Devolution has indeed been a blessing to all Kenyans be it directly or indirectly...

Well said

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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