VituVingiSana wrote:@Sparkly - Timing is not good!
KK (17+) vs KenGen (6.60) - A lesson learnt!
1. @VVS our NSE is very unpredictable. In fact I don't have much faith in Buy and Hold strategy anymore. It seems safer to trade seasonal and rumour based trends, take profits and move on.
2. Fundamentally good stocks stay depressed for too long. More value is unlocked by takeovers and attempted takeovers rather than open market action e.g. Rea Vipingo, Access, Unilever, Carbacid, Stanbic, KK, Express, Unga, City Trust etc. Long frustrating wait for minority shareholders.
3. Few true Blue Chips. There is always something around the corner to strangle the prospects of good companies e.g. price/ tariff regulation for banks, Oil marketers, telecomms... impudent loans by public utilities... political interference/ theft on parastatals like KQ, Uchumi, Mumias... Arbitrary and excessive taxation on alcohol, cigarettes and airtime... toxic politics for tourism and services... tenderprenuerism in Oil Marketing and Digital broadcasting.
4. Weak regulatory structure allowing too much cooking of books. You can't tell if you have a gem or a monkey e.g. ADSS, Home Afrika, Eveready, Sameer allowed to con Wanjiku with pie in the sky projections.
5. Out of the 80 or so companies that listed on the NSE, less than 10 have been worthy of being held for more than 10 years. Safaricom, BAT, Jubilee, Equity, Kakuzi somehow beat the odds to grow in the longterm.
Life is short. Live passionately.